People were quoted who thought Biden’s P(win) was 96%.
Please provide actual quotes. I don’t know anyone who held that belief. Not even Nate Silver held that belief if you take into account election shenanigans. Nobody in the thread mentioned anything close to that probability. Most expressed probabilities I’ve found by rationalists are something in the 70-80% range for Biden, which at this point still doesn’t strike me as unreasonable.
Please provide actual quotes. I don’t know anyone who held that belief. Not even Nate Silver held that belief if you take into account election shenanigans. Nobody in the thread mentioned anything close to that probability. Most expressed probabilities I’ve found by rationalists are something in the 70-80% range for Biden, which at this point still doesn’t strike me as unreasonable.