I just made my account but I want to remind everyone that you cannot make inferences on how good your prediction (or how good of a bet this was) based on one data point (how this election turned out). If you want to dig deep into the odds that every state was given, you can start to make a case, but anyone with the gut reaction that since the election was close, this was a bad bet, are wrong.
Agreed. The best prediction would have been to assign Biden 100% credence. A defence of their position might say that “Given the information 538 had at the time, the best possible prediction machine would have less certainty than Nate”, but this is too hard to prove, and it’s inconsistent with the fact that Nate is a calibrated forecaster who (as far as I know) consistently beats the market.
I just made my account but I want to remind everyone that you cannot make inferences on how good your prediction (or how good of a bet this was) based on one data point (how this election turned out). If you want to dig deep into the odds that every state was given, you can start to make a case, but anyone with the gut reaction that since the election was close, this was a bad bet, are wrong.
Agreed. The best prediction would have been to assign Biden 100% credence. A defence of their position might say that “Given the information 538 had at the time, the best possible prediction machine would have less certainty than Nate”, but this is too hard to prove, and it’s inconsistent with the fact that Nate is a calibrated forecaster who (as far as I know) consistently beats the market.