Aren’t most of Biden votes on mail votes, which are counted later?
From what I’m seeing this still doesn’t tell us that we aren’t in a “Biden wins without a huge margin”, which was the largest chunk of those 80%/90% estimates. I expected waking up at this time and seeing that the votes were momentarily favouring Trump (in fact I had to order my brain to expect and prepare for that).
“Biden wins” hypothesis has narrowed without those “Biden wins by a large chunk” scenarios being likely anymore, but in the “Biden wins” hypothesis I wouldn’t have called seeing that unlikely.
So far there’s not so much “Trump wins” evidence I’d assume something was wrong with the prior odds, I’d think that if the remaining votes would be expected to be evenly distributed, but they are not.
My estimate 2 days ago was Biden at 85% to win, because a lot of things had to go in a very specific way for it to not happen or there had to be an error without any precedent in the polls. I felt like I was supposed to go at least 90%, but couldn’t bring myself to do that because I felt overconfident in doing so, even if I was pretty sure my estimate was erring in the opposite side.
I think that a lot of rationalists assumed that the most common odds they were hearing (80% or so) had been too cautious because pollsters were afraid to make the same wrong call they made last time, so they augmented the odds a bit. What convinced me to go from 80% to 85% was seeing that Biden lead was three time the lead Hillary had, so that kind of fluke was really unlikely.
If rationalists had been overconfident I’d expect this correction from pollsters excessive under confidence played a large part on anyone who wasn’t just calculating odds on sheer polls data.
If Trump somehow wins… I think we’d have either witnessed something previously unknown that made the polls a lot less reliable (this seems to be a very particular election for lots of factors), which usually doesn’t happens so betting on Biden then at those odds was still the intelligent thing to do, since you’d make money most times you did that, or that we simply got the unlikely result with things going in a specific way.
But I can’t think of anything rationalists should have done differently.
Aren’t most of Biden votes on mail votes, which are counted later?
From what I’m seeing this still doesn’t tell us that we aren’t in a “Biden wins without a huge margin”, which was the largest chunk of those 80%/90% estimates. I expected waking up at this time and seeing that the votes were momentarily favouring Trump (in fact I had to order my brain to expect and prepare for that).
“Biden wins” hypothesis has narrowed without those “Biden wins by a large chunk” scenarios being likely anymore, but in the “Biden wins” hypothesis I wouldn’t have called seeing that unlikely.
So far there’s not so much “Trump wins” evidence I’d assume something was wrong with the prior odds, I’d think that if the remaining votes would be expected to be evenly distributed, but they are not.
My estimate 2 days ago was Biden at 85% to win, because a lot of things had to go in a very specific way for it to not happen or there had to be an error without any precedent in the polls. I felt like I was supposed to go at least 90%, but couldn’t bring myself to do that because I felt overconfident in doing so, even if I was pretty sure my estimate was erring in the opposite side.
I think that a lot of rationalists assumed that the most common odds they were hearing (80% or so) had been too cautious because pollsters were afraid to make the same wrong call they made last time, so they augmented the odds a bit. What convinced me to go from 80% to 85% was seeing that Biden lead was three time the lead Hillary had, so that kind of fluke was really unlikely.
If rationalists had been overconfident I’d expect this correction from pollsters excessive under confidence played a large part on anyone who wasn’t just calculating odds on sheer polls data.
If Trump somehow wins… I think we’d have either witnessed something previously unknown that made the polls a lot less reliable (this seems to be a very particular election for lots of factors), which usually doesn’t happens so betting on Biden then at those odds was still the intelligent thing to do, since you’d make money most times you did that, or that we simply got the unlikely result with things going in a specific way.
But I can’t think of anything rationalists should have done differently.