I would guess Long Covid then reduces a 30yo’s average productivity by on average .3%.
This seems like a vast underestimate of the impact of long covid; the long-term loss of energy that people with post viral fatigue suffer is way worse than that.
From Anne’s document:
I have Myalgic Encephalomyelitis / Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS). Many Long COVID sufferers have what seems to be ME/CFS. It’s a bad illness. You don’t want it. Nearly every day of my life since I’ve developed ME/CFS has been centered around trying to find some way to get better. I think people without ME/CFS undervalue how bad it is because it’s hard for them to fathom that anything this bad (yet non-fatal!) even exists.
The long-term post viral fatigue/CFS/ME outcome is probably more like a 50%-70% loss in productivity than the 0.3% estimated here; think of people giving up their career, losing relationships, giving up activities and social life due to a permanent illness, etc.
Outcomes this bad are probably less than 5% of cases, Anne threw around the 1⁄3 of long covid cases figure, but we don’t know at the moment.
If you are missing a finger from an accident and you want children with the normal 5 digits, you can use heritability to work out that finding a wife with 6 fingers isn’t going to get you back to normal.
Another one is if you are gay and you want gay children, the low heritability of sexual orientation indicates that finding a gay gamete donor won’t help much.
On the other hand if you are short and want taller children, you might put a lot of effort into finding a wife who is taller than average (heritability of height tells you that this will work).