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Conditional prediction markets are evidential, not causal

philh7 Feb 2024 21:52 UTC

54 points

10 comments2 min readLW link

A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation On How Unlikely The Circumstantial Evidence Around Covid-19 Is

Roko7 Feb 2024 21:49 UTC

5 points

36 comments5 min readLW link

Nitric oxide for covid and other viral infections

Elizabeth7 Feb 2024 21:30 UTC

39 points

6 comments6 min readLW link

(acesounderglass.com)

Debating with More Persuasive LLMs Leads to More Truthful Answers

Akbir Khan, John Hughes, Dan Valentine, Sam Bowman and Ethan Perez

7 Feb 2024 21:28 UTC

87 points

14 comments9 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)

[Question] Choosing a book on causality

martinkunev7 Feb 2024 21:16 UTC

4 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

More Hyphenation

Arjun Panickssery7 Feb 2024 19:43 UTC

87 points

19 comments1 min readLW link

(arjunpanickssery.substack.com)

Reading writing advice doesn’t make writing easier

Henry Sleight7 Feb 2024 19:14 UTC

17 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

(open.substack.com)

[Question] What’s this 3rd secret directive of evolution called? (survive & spread & ___)

lukehmiles7 Feb 2024 14:11 UTC

10 points

11 comments1 min readLW link

Training of superintelligence is secretly adversarial

quetzal_rainbow7 Feb 2024 13:38 UTC

15 points

2 comments5 min readLW link

The Math of Suspicious Coincidences

Roko7 Feb 2024 13:32 UTC

30 points

3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How to deal with the sense of demotivation that comes from thinking about determinism?

SpectrumDT7 Feb 2024 10:53 UTC

13 points

71 comments1 min readLW link

Quantum Darwinism, social constructs, and the scientific method

pchvykov7 Feb 2024 7:04 UTC

6 points

12 comments9 min readLW link

Benchmark Study #5: Social Intelligence QA (Task, MCQ)

Bruce W. Lee7 Feb 2024 4:41 UTC

6 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)

Why I think it’s net harmful to do technical safety research at AGI labs

Remmelt7 Feb 2024 4:17 UTC

26 points

24 comments1 min readLW link

story-based decision-making

bhauth7 Feb 2024 2:35 UTC

88 points

11 comments4 min readLW link

Full Driving Engagement Optional

jefftk7 Feb 2024 2:30 UTC

14 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

How to train your own “Sleeper Agents”

evhub7 Feb 2024 0:31 UTC

91 points

11 comments2 min readLW link

My guess at Conjecture’s vision: triggering a narrative bifurcation

Alexandre Variengien6 Feb 2024 19:10 UTC

75 points

12 comments16 min readLW link

Arrogance and People Pleasing

Jonathan Moregård6 Feb 2024 18:43 UTC

25 points

7 comments4 min readLW link

(honestliving.substack.com)

What does davidad want from «boundaries»?

Chipmonk and davidad

6 Feb 2024 17:45 UTC

41 points

1 comment5 min readLW link

[Question] How can I efficiently read all the Dath Ilan worldbuilding?

mike_hawke6 Feb 2024 16:52 UTC

10 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Preventing model exfiltration with upload limits

ryan_greenblatt6 Feb 2024 16:29 UTC

63 points

16 comments14 min readLW link

Evolution is an observation, not a process

Neil 6 Feb 2024 14:49 UTC

7 points

11 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Why do we need an understanding of the real world to predict the next tokens in a body of text?

Valentin Baltadzhiev6 Feb 2024 14:43 UTC

2 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

On the Debate Between Jezos and Leahy

Zvi6 Feb 2024 14:40 UTC

64 points

6 comments63 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Why Two Valid Answers Approach is not Enough for Sleeping Beauty

Ape in the coat6 Feb 2024 14:21 UTC

6 points

12 comments6 min readLW link

Are most personality disorders really trust disorders?

chaosmage6 Feb 2024 12:37 UTC

20 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

From Conceptual Spaces to Quantum Concepts: Formalising and Learning Structured Conceptual Models

Roman Leventov6 Feb 2024 10:18 UTC

6 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)

Fluent dreaming for language models (AI interpretability method)

tbenthompson, mikes and Zygi Straznickas

6 Feb 2024 6:02 UTC

39 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)

Selfish AI Inevitable

Davey Morse6 Feb 2024 4:29 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Toy models of AI control for concentrated catastrophe prevention

Fabien Roger and Buck

6 Feb 2024 1:38 UTC

50 points

2 comments7 min readLW link

Things You’re Allowed to Do: University Edition

Saul Munn6 Feb 2024 0:36 UTC

84 points

13 comments5 min readLW link

(www.brasstacks.blog)

Value learning in the absence of ground truth

Joel_Saarinen5 Feb 2024 18:56 UTC

47 points

8 comments45 min readLW link

Implementing activation steering

Annah5 Feb 2024 17:51 UTC

59 points

5 comments7 min readLW link

AI alignment as a translation problem

Roman Leventov5 Feb 2024 14:14 UTC

21 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

Safe Stasis Fallacy

Davidmanheim5 Feb 2024 10:54 UTC

54 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How has internalising a post-AGI world affected your current choices?

yanni kyriacos5 Feb 2024 5:43 UTC

10 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

A thought experiment for comparing “biological” vs “digital” intelligence increase/explosion

Super AGI5 Feb 2024 4:57 UTC

6 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

Noticing Panic

Cole Wyeth5 Feb 2024 3:45 UTC

55 points

8 comments3 min readLW link

EA/ACX/LW February Santa Cruz Meetup

madmail4 Feb 2024 23:26 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Vitalia Rationality Meetup

veronica4 Feb 2024 19:46 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Personal predictions

Daniele De Nuntiis4 Feb 2024 3:59 UTC

2 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

A sketch of acausal trade in practice

Richard_Ngo4 Feb 2024 0:32 UTC

32 points

4 comments7 min readLW link

Brute Force Manufactured Consensus is Hiding the Crime of the Century

Roko3 Feb 2024 20:36 UTC

220 points

156 comments9 min readLW link

My thoughts on the Beff Jezos—Connor Leahy debate

Ariel Kwiatkowski3 Feb 2024 19:47 UTC

−5 points

23 comments4 min readLW link

The Journal of Dangerous Ideas

rogersbacon3 Feb 2024 15:40 UTC

−25 points

4 comments5 min readLW link

(www.secretorum.life)

Attitudes about Applied Rationality

Camille Berger 3 Feb 2024 14:42 UTC

108 points

18 comments4 min readLW link

Practicing my Handwriting in 1439

Maxwell Tabarrok3 Feb 2024 13:21 UTC

11 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(www.maximum-progress.com)

Finite Factored Sets to Bayes Nets Part 2

J Bostock3 Feb 2024 12:25 UTC

6 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

Why I no longer identify as transhumanist

Kaj_Sotala3 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

54 points

33 comments3 min readLW link

(kajsotala.fi)