# Causality

TagLast edit: 7 Feb 2021 15:11 UTC by

Causality is the intuitive notion that some events happening “result” in other events happening. What’s going on with that? What does it mean for A to cause B? How do we figure out the causal relationship between things?

# Causal Di­a­grams and Causal Models

12 Oct 2012 21:49 UTC
150 points

# Bayesian Net­works Aren’t Ne­c­es­sar­ily Causal

14 May 2023 1:42 UTC
88 points

# Three more sto­ries about causation

3 Nov 2020 15:51 UTC
15 points

# Time­less Causality

29 May 2008 6:45 UTC
46 points

# Causal Universes

29 Nov 2012 4:08 UTC
125 points

# Book re­view: Pearl’s Book of Why

7 Jul 2018 17:30 UTC
69 points
(www.bayesianinvestor.com)

# [Question] Col­lider bias as a cog­ni­tive blindspot?

30 Dec 2020 2:39 UTC
54 points

# Finite Fac­tored Sets

23 May 2021 20:52 UTC
146 points

# Finite Fac­tored Sets in Pictures

11 Dec 2022 18:49 UTC
174 points

# No Cau­sa­tion with­out Reification

23 Oct 2020 20:28 UTC
22 points

# Fake Causality

23 Aug 2007 18:12 UTC
112 points

# Why 1-box­ing doesn’t im­ply back­wards causation

25 Mar 2021 2:32 UTC
7 points

# Com­pu­ta­tional Model: Causal Di­a­grams with Symmetry

22 Aug 2019 17:54 UTC
53 points

# Is Causal­ity in the Map or the Ter­ri­tory?

17 Dec 2019 23:19 UTC
23 points

# Sav­ing Time

18 May 2021 20:11 UTC
149 points

# Finite Fac­tored Sets: In­tro­duc­tion and Factorizations

4 Jun 2021 17:41 UTC
34 points

# AXRP Epi­sode 9 - Finite Fac­tored Sets with Scott Garrabrant

24 Jun 2021 22:10 UTC
59 points

# Finite Fac­tored Sets: Con­di­tional Orthogonality

9 Jul 2021 6:01 UTC
27 points

# [Question] The­ory of Causal Models with Dy­namic Struc­ture?

23 Jan 2020 19:47 UTC
24 points

# [Question] Good soft­ware to draw and ma­nipu­late causal net­works?

2 Sep 2021 14:05 UTC
6 points

# Causal vs Pre­dic­tive Models, and the Causal Taboo

18 Oct 2021 15:05 UTC
22 points

# Pre­dic­tive Cat­e­gories Make Bad Causal Variables

18 Oct 2021 15:02 UTC
27 points

# Is back­wards cau­sa­tion nec­es­sar­ily ab­surd?

14 Jan 2020 19:25 UTC
22 points

# Don’t Pull a Bro­ken Chain

28 Aug 2019 1:21 UTC
28 points

# The Use­ful Idea of Truth

2 Oct 2012 18:16 UTC
169 points

# Causal­ity and de­ter­minism in so­cial sci­ence—An in­ves­ti­ga­tion us­ing Pearl’s causal ladder

3 Jan 2022 17:51 UTC
12 points

# Re­duc­tion­ism is not the ul­ti­mate tool for causal inference

7 Jan 2022 21:51 UTC
11 points

# In­tro­duc­tion to Towards Causal Foun­da­tions of Safe AGI

12 Jun 2023 17:55 UTC
67 points

# [Question] What is the equiv­a­lent of the “do” op­er­a­tor for finite fac­tored sets?

17 Mar 2022 8:05 UTC
8 points

# AI al­ign­ment as a trans­la­tion problem

5 Feb 2024 14:14 UTC
21 points

# [Link] Sarah Con­stantin: “Why I am Not An AI Doomer”

12 Apr 2023 1:52 UTC
61 points
(sarahconstantin.substack.com)

# Stu­pidity and Dishon­esty Ex­plain Each Other Away

28 Dec 2019 19:21 UTC
38 points

# z is not the cause of x

23 Oct 2023 17:43 UTC
6 points

# [Question] What is the in­ter­pre­ta­tion of the do() op­er­a­tor?

26 Aug 2020 21:54 UTC
10 points

# [Question] Ex­am­ples of prac­ti­cal im­pli­ca­tions of Judea Pearl’s Causal­ity work

1 Jul 2022 20:58 UTC
23 points

# [Question] Are there any good, easy-to-un­der­stand ex­am­ples of cases where statis­ti­cal causal net­work dis­cov­ery worked well in prac­tice?

12 Jul 2023 22:08 UTC
42 points

# Goal-Direc­tion for Si­mu­lated Agents

12 Jul 2023 17:06 UTC
33 points

# Causal Reference

20 Oct 2012 22:12 UTC
68 points

# Pos­si­bil­ity and Could-ness

14 Jun 2008 4:38 UTC
63 points

# Stuff That Makes Stuff Happen

18 Oct 2012 10:49 UTC
99 points

# Op­ti­mized Pro­pa­ganda with Bayesian Net­works: Com­ment on “Ar­tic­u­lat­ing Lay The­o­ries Through Graph­i­cal Models”

29 Jun 2020 2:45 UTC
105 points

# Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part 1: Ba­sic Ter­minol­ogy and the As­sump­tions of Causal Inference

30 Jul 2014 20:56 UTC
46 points

# Ideal­ized Agents Are Ap­prox­i­mate Causal Mir­rors (+ Rad­i­cal Op­ti­mism on Agent Foun­da­tions)

22 Dec 2023 20:19 UTC
71 points

# Time is ho­mo­ge­neous se­quen­tially-com­pos­able determination

8 Oct 2023 14:58 UTC
12 points

# Se­quence An­nounce­ment: Ap­plied Causal Inference

30 Jul 2014 20:55 UTC
43 points

# Causal In­fer­ence Se­quence Part II: Graph­i­cal Models

4 Aug 2014 23:10 UTC
15 points

# [Question] What is the sub­jec­tive ex­pe­rience of free will for agents?

2 Apr 2020 15:53 UTC
10 points

# Zen and Ra­tion­al­ity: Karma

12 Jan 2021 20:56 UTC
11 points

# Limit­ing Causal­ity by Com­plex­ity Class

30 Jan 2021 12:18 UTC
18 points

# Causal­ity: a chap­ter by chap­ter review

26 Sep 2012 16:55 UTC
103 points

# Progress on Causal In­fluence Diagrams

30 Jun 2021 15:34 UTC
73 points

# [Question] Causal with­out cor­re­la­tion, how?

30 Aug 2021 16:43 UTC
2 points

# A FLI post­doc­toral grant ap­pli­ca­tion: AI al­ign­ment via causal anal­y­sis and de­sign of agents

13 Nov 2021 1:44 UTC
4 points

# Anti-cor­re­lated causation

6 Dec 2021 4:36 UTC
18 points

# What is a Coun­ter­fac­tual: An Ele­men­tary In­tro­duc­tion to the Causal Hierarchy

2 Jan 2022 3:46 UTC
11 points

# An Open Philan­thropy grant pro­posal: Causal rep­re­sen­ta­tion learn­ing of hu­man preferences

11 Jan 2022 11:28 UTC
19 points

# [Question] How to write a LW se­quence to learn a topic?

3 Apr 2022 20:09 UTC
3 points

# Causal­ity, Trans­for­ma­tive AI and al­ign­ment—part I

27 Jan 2022 16:18 UTC
14 points

# How RL Agents Be­have When Their Ac­tions Are Mod­ified? [Distil­la­tion post]

20 May 2022 18:47 UTC
22 points

# In­ves­ti­gat­ing causal un­der­stand­ing in LLMs

14 Jun 2022 13:57 UTC
28 points

# Causal con­fu­sion as an ar­gu­ment against the scal­ing hypothesis

20 Jun 2022 10:54 UTC
85 points

# What Is The True Name of Mo­du­lar­ity?

1 Jul 2022 14:55 UTC
35 points

# How to de­stroy the uni­verse with a hypercomputer

5 Jul 2022 19:05 UTC
2 points

# Dis­cov­er­ing Agents

18 Aug 2022 17:33 UTC
73 points

# Causal rep­re­sen­ta­tion learn­ing as a tech­nique to pre­vent goal misgeneralization

4 Jan 2023 0:07 UTC
19 points

# [LINK] Judea Pearl wins 2011 Tur­ing Award

15 Mar 2012 16:32 UTC
32 points

# Agent mem­branes and causal distance

2 Jan 2024 22:43 UTC
19 points

# From Finite Fac­tors to Bayes Nets

23 Jan 2024 20:03 UTC
38 points

# [Question] Choos­ing a book on causality

7 Feb 2024 21:16 UTC
2 points

# Causal­ity is Everywhere

13 Feb 2024 13:44 UTC
25 points

# Where Free Will and Deter­minism Meet

4 Apr 2023 10:59 UTC
0 points

# The Fun­da­men­tal The­o­rem for mea­surable fac­tor spaces

12 Nov 2023 19:25 UTC
38 points

# Ap­ply to the Con­cep­tual Boundaries Work­shop for AI Safety

27 Nov 2023 21:04 UTC
47 points

16 Sep 2011 6:56 UTC
160 points

# You Are A Brain

9 May 2009 21:53 UTC
131 points

# Self-fulfilling correlations

26 Aug 2010 21:07 UTC
151 points

# What is Ev­i­dence?

22 Sep 2007 6:43 UTC
159 points

# Right­ing a Wrong Question

9 Mar 2008 13:00 UTC
121 points

# The Sim­ple Truth

1 Jan 2008 20:00 UTC
125 points

# Mini-re­view: The Book of Why

21 May 2018 23:11 UTC
21 points

# Ex­plain­ing vs. Ex­plain­ing Away

17 Mar 2008 1:59 UTC
102 points

# Model­ing AGI Safety Frame­works with Causal In­fluence Diagrams

21 Jun 2019 12:50 UTC
43 points
(arxiv.org)

# Con­found it! Cor­re­la­tion is (usu­ally) not cau­sa­tion! But why not?

9 Jul 2014 3:04 UTC
66 points

# Tak­ing “cor­re­la­tion does not im­ply cau­sa­tion” back from the internet

3 Oct 2012 12:18 UTC
62 points

# Is Caviar a Risk Fac­tor For Be­ing a Million­aire?

9 Dec 2016 16:27 UTC
67 points

# Real­ity and re­al­ity-boxes

13 May 2023 14:14 UTC
37 points

# Gen­er­al­iz­ing Ex­per­i­men­tal Re­sults by Lev­er­ag­ing Knowl­edge of Mechanisms

11 Dec 2019 20:39 UTC
50 points

# Causal di­a­grams and soft­ware engineering

7 Mar 2012 18:23 UTC
53 points

# Causal­ity and Mo­ral Responsibility

13 Jun 2008 8:34 UTC
52 points

# Log­i­cal Rep­re­sen­ta­tion of Causal Models

21 Jan 2020 20:04 UTC
37 points

# The Gen­er­al­ized Anti-Zom­bie Principle

5 Apr 2008 23:16 UTC
45 points

# Ghosts in the Machine

17 Jun 2008 23:29 UTC
58 points

# New pa­per: The In­cen­tives that Shape Behaviour

23 Jan 2020 19:07 UTC
23 points
(arxiv.org)

# Three Fal­la­cies of Teleology

25 Aug 2008 22:27 UTC
36 points

# Time­less Control

7 Jun 2008 5:16 UTC
41 points

# Causal­ity: A Brief Introduction

20 Jun 2023 15:01 UTC
48 points

# [Link] In­tro to causal in­fer­ence by Michael Niel­sen (2012)

19 Jul 2019 12:19 UTC
29 points

# Agency from a causal perspective

30 Jun 2023 17:37 UTC
38 points

# In­cen­tives from a causal perspective

10 Jul 2023 17:16 UTC
27 points

# Re­ward Hack­ing from a Causal Perspective

21 Jul 2023 18:27 UTC
29 points

# A re­for­mu­la­tion of Finite Fac­tored Sets

24 Jul 2023 13:02 UTC
74 points

# A crit­i­cal agen­tial ac­count of free will, cau­sa­tion, and physics

5 Mar 2020 7:57 UTC
25 points
(unstableontology.com)

# Causal­ity and a Cost Se­man­tics for Neu­ral Networks

21 Aug 2023 21:02 UTC
22 points

# Grasp­ing Slip­pery Things

17 Jun 2008 2:04 UTC
36 points

# The Fal­lacy of Dress­ing Like a Winner

26 Dec 2010 20:59 UTC
27 points

# The goal of physics

2 Sep 2023 23:08 UTC
46 points

# For­mal­iz­ing «Boundaries» with Markov blankets

19 Sep 2023 21:01 UTC
20 points

# Michael Niel­sen ex­plains Judea Pearl’s causality

24 Jan 2012 19:35 UTC
30 points

# Causal­ity does not im­ply correlation

8 Jul 2009 0:52 UTC
18 points

# At 87, Pearl is still able to change his mind

18 Oct 2023 4:46 UTC
135 points

# Against but­terfly effect

9 Feb 2021 7:46 UTC
5 points
(forensicoceanography.wordpress.com)

# Many meth­ods of causal in­fer­ence try to iden­tify a “safe” sub­set of variation

30 Mar 2021 14:36 UTC
13 points