Measure

Karma: 1,190

Measure 22 Nov 2022 23:17 UTC
3 points
0 ∶ 0
on: Human-level Full-Press Diplomacy (some bare facts).
I guess Austria is the AI because

it consistently capitalizes place names.

Measure 14 Nov 2022 21:41 UTC
3 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: Dacyn’s comment on: Two New Newcomb Variants

Regarding the question of how to force all the incentives into one box, what about the following strategy: choose box 1 with probability 1 - (400 - x) epsilon, where x is the payoff of box 1. Then it is obviously in each host’s interest to predict box 1, since it has the largest probability of any box, but then it is also in each host’s interest to minimize 400 - x i.e. maximize x. This is true even though the hosts’ competition is zero-sum.

If the hosts are all predicting box 1, why does it matter with what probability the human picks box 1? (If the hosts’ payoffs for all-predict-correctly and all-predict-incorrectly are different, then their game isn’t zero-sum.)

Measure 10 Nov 2022 15:31 UTC
3 points
in reply to: Purged Deviator’s comment on: Purged Deviator’s Shortform
The event is more likely to occur if the person is a conspirator, so you hearing the statement should indeed increase your credence for conspiracy (and symmetrically decrease your credence for not-conspiracy).

Measure 8 Nov 2022 14:50 UTC
4 points
0 ∶ 0
on: Playground Game: Monster
We called this “Lava Monster Tag” when I was a kid since “the ground is lava”, though we only had one monster at a time (sometimes a fixed, larger number for a large playground).

Measure 4 Nov 2022 14:33 UTC
2 points
on: The Mirror Chamber: A short story about the matter of anthropic measure
I’ve read this before. Did you post it, or a version of it, previously?

Measure 27 Oct 2022 13:53 UTC
4 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: tailcalled’s comment on: A list of Petrov buttons
If team pineapple presses their button, the other team is forced to put pineapple on the pizza they have, and if they press theirs, team pineapple has to pick off their pineapples and throw them away.

Measure 24 Oct 2022 15:23 UTC
8 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: gbear605’s comment on: Writing Russian and Ukrainian words in Latin script
I would just call this an extra ‘y’ sound before the vowel. ([ˈkjuːt] vs. [ˈkuːt])

Measure 24 Oct 2022 14:59 UTC
19 points
2 ∶ 0
on: Covid 9/22/22: The Joe Biden Sings
Why did this post from last month get reposted now?

Measure 17 Oct 2022 18:28 UTC
2 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Martin Randall’s comment on: Maximal Lotteries
Something like squaring the size of each voting bloc before doing a weighted random selection? This gives a 90% chance for a 75% majority to win.

Measure 17 Oct 2022 18:12 UTC
4 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: shminux’s comment on: The harms you don’t see

wrote the book on how to do it right

Your link just points back to this post.

Measure 30 Sep 2022 15:16 UTC
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: Covid 9/29/22: The Jones Act Waver

Narrow interests will always beat broad interests in a democracy

Is this due to lobbying? It seems like the majority should be opposed to this.

Measure 28 Sep 2022 15:55 UTC
4 points
0 ∶ 0
on: A Poorly Planned Loft Bed
At my school, there was a special metal crossbar (essentially just one side of the mattress frame) that you could use to loft without bunking safely.

Measure 23 Sep 2022 19:13 UTC
13 points
in reply to: David Udell’s comment on: David Udell’s Shortform
These nine fixed points or cycles occur with the following frequencies (1 ⇐ n ⇐ 10e9):
33.3% : (153 → )
29.5% : (371 → )
17.8% : (370 → )
5.0% : (55 → 250 → 133 → )
4.1% : (160 → 217 → 352 → )
3.8% : (407 → )
3.1% : (919 → 1459 → )
1.8% : (1 → )
1.5% : (136 → 244 → )

No other fixed points or cycles are possible (except 0 → 0, which isn’t reachable from any nonzero input) since any number with more than four digits will have fewer digits in the sum of its cubed digits.

Measure 22 Sep 2022 14:24 UTC
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: LW Petrov Day 2022 (Monday, 9/26)
~~Last year~~ two years ago, when the front page went down, I was still able to access posts at the direct link. Since that is my normal bookmarked link, I didn’t even realize the button had been pressed until people started commenting about it. What is the reasoning for just the front page being affected?

Measure 22 Sep 2022 14:12 UTC
9 points
4 ∶ 0
in reply to: nem’s comment on: The Redaction Machine
In any case, there’s no way to end up with more memory-years than your current physical age, so it’s only a question of which 70 years to keep.

Measure 20 Sep 2022 19:00 UTC
21 points
7 ∶ 0
on: Losing the root for the tree
https://xkcd.com/761/

Measure 20 Sep 2022 18:55 UTC
2 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Conor Sullivan’s comment on: Do bamboos set themselves on fire?
The point about forest fires is that they were rare enough before humans that they probably didn’t apply much selection pressure. Some (most?) conifers have seed cones that can survive fires and reforest burned areas, but their seedlings don’t grow as quickly as bamboo.

Measure 20 Sep 2022 14:09 UTC
8 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: localdeity’s comment on: Twitter Polls: Evidence is Evidence
Yep. If the crazy people get louder or the loud people get crazier or twitter-poll-respondents start paying more attention to the loud and crazy, then that will give you the self-other difference in perception.

Measure 19 Sep 2022 14:40 UTC
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: Are Human Brains Universal?
Now I’m imagining “Chimps consulting CCC”.

Measure 13 Sep 2022 15:45 UTC
5 points
2 ∶ 0
in reply to: Ericf’s comment on: Freeloading?
Yep. It’s perfectly consistent to say “I will do X even though, if everyone did X, bad things would happen because if enough people start doing X that it starts to become a problem, then I’ll stop doing X”.