(Actually downvoted Daniel for reasons similar to what TurnTrout mentions. Aumannian updating is so boring, even though it’s profitable when you’re betting all-things-considered… I also did give arguments above, but people mostly made jokes about my punctuation! #grumpy )
Aumann updating involves trying to inhabit the inside perspective of somebody else and guess what they saw that made them believe what they do—hardly seems boring to me! Also the thing I was doing was ranking my friends at skills, which I think is one of the classic interesting things.
I’m associating it with doing exactly not that. Just using outside variables like “what do they believe” and “how generally competent do I expect them to be”. (I often see people going “but this great forecaster said 70%” and updating marginally closer, without even trying up build a model of that forecaster’s inside view.)
I guess I’m really making a bid for ‘Aumanning’ to refer to the thing that Aumann’s agreement theorem describes, rather than just partially deferring to somebody else.
(Actually downvoted Daniel for reasons similar to what TurnTrout mentions. Aumannian updating is so boring, even though it’s profitable when you’re betting all-things-considered… I also did give arguments above, but people mostly made jokes about my punctuation! #grumpy )
This is a timeless part of the LessWrong experience, my friend.
Aumann updating involves trying to inhabit the inside perspective of somebody else and guess what they saw that made them believe what they do—hardly seems boring to me! Also the thing I was doing was ranking my friends at skills, which I think is one of the classic interesting things.
I’m associating it with doing exactly not that. Just using outside variables like “what do they believe” and “how generally competent do I expect them to be”. (I often see people going “but this great forecaster said 70%” and updating marginally closer, without even trying up build a model of that forecaster’s inside view.)
Your version sounds fun.
I guess I’m really making a bid for ‘Aumanning’ to refer to the thing that Aumann’s agreement theorem describes, rather than just partially deferring to somebody else.