Aumann updating involves trying to inhabit the inside perspective of somebody else and guess what they saw that made them believe what they do—hardly seems boring to me! Also the thing I was doing was ranking my friends at skills, which I think is one of the classic interesting things.
I’m associating it with doing exactly not that. Just using outside variables like “what do they believe” and “how generally competent do I expect them to be”. (I often see people going “but this great forecaster said 70%” and updating marginally closer, without even trying up build a model of that forecaster’s inside view.)
I guess I’m really making a bid for ‘Aumanning’ to refer to the thing that Aumann’s agreement theorem describes, rather than just partially deferring to somebody else.
Aumann updating involves trying to inhabit the inside perspective of somebody else and guess what they saw that made them believe what they do—hardly seems boring to me! Also the thing I was doing was ranking my friends at skills, which I think is one of the classic interesting things.
I’m associating it with doing exactly not that. Just using outside variables like “what do they believe” and “how generally competent do I expect them to be”. (I often see people going “but this great forecaster said 70%” and updating marginally closer, without even trying up build a model of that forecaster’s inside view.)
Your version sounds fun.
I guess I’m really making a bid for ‘Aumanning’ to refer to the thing that Aumann’s agreement theorem describes, rather than just partially deferring to somebody else.