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FLI Podcast: On Superforecasting with Robert de Neufville

Palus Astra30 Apr 2020 23:08 UTC

6 points

0 comments52 min readLW link

“God Rewards Fools”

Czynski30 Apr 2020 22:51 UTC

17 points

6 comments2 min readLW link

Generalized Efficient Markets and Academia

johnswentworth30 Apr 2020 21:59 UTC

52 points

29 comments2 min readLW link

Seasonality of COVID-19, Other Coronaviruses, and Influenza

Radford Neal30 Apr 2020 21:43 UTC

10 points

9 comments1 min readLW link

(radfordneal.wordpress.com)

Covid-19 4/30: Stuck in Limbo

Zvi30 Apr 2020 20:40 UTC

28 points

8 comments7 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The Embarrassing Problem of Premature Exploitation

Richard Meadows30 Apr 2020 20:33 UTC

41 points

7 comments7 min readLW link

(thedeepdish.org)

Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020

NunoSempere30 Apr 2020 16:41 UTC

22 points

3 comments6 min readLW link

Against strong bayesianism

Richard_Ngo30 Apr 2020 10:48 UTC

58 points

65 comments6 min readLW link

Optimising Society to Constrain Risk of War from an Artificial Superintelligence

JohnCDraper30 Apr 2020 10:47 UTC

3 points

1 comment51 min readLW link

[Question] What is the alternative to intent alignment called?

Richard_Ngo30 Apr 2020 2:16 UTC

12 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Since the “Will COVID-19 survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate?” thread was posted, has new information emerged that may update those estimates?

nonzerosum29 Apr 2020 21:40 UTC

12 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

List of prompts for brainstorming COVID response project ideas

nonzerosum29 Apr 2020 21:39 UTC

2 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Melting democracy

Richard_Ngo29 Apr 2020 20:10 UTC

30 points

6 comments6 min readLW link

(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

Why anything that can be for-profit, should be

jasoncrawford29 Apr 2020 20:00 UTC

50 points

39 comments6 min readLW link

(rootsofprogress.org)

On “COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons”

Zvi29 Apr 2020 19:40 UTC

67 points

12 comments10 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Training Regime Day 25: Recursive Self-Improvement

Mark Xu29 Apr 2020 18:22 UTC

15 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Motivating Abstraction-First Decision Theory

johnswentworth29 Apr 2020 17:47 UTC

42 points

16 comments5 min readLW link

[AN #97]: Are there historical examples of large, robust discontinuities?

Rohin Shah29 Apr 2020 17:30 UTC

15 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

(mailchi.mp)

Facebook AI: A state-of-the-art open source chatbot

FactorialCode29 Apr 2020 17:21 UTC

9 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(ai.facebook.com)

Peter’s COVID Consolidated Brief − 29 Apr

Peter Wildeford29 Apr 2020 15:27 UTC

54 points

5 comments32 min readLW link

I do not like math

lsusr29 Apr 2020 11:27 UTC

34 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

Negative Feedback and Simulacra

Elizabeth29 Apr 2020 2:00 UTC

152 points

24 comments9 min readLW link 1 review

(acesounderglass.com)

[Question] Estimates of COVID risk rankings for different activities when together with people in the same household?

nonzerosum29 Apr 2020 1:13 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Chris Masterjohn on Coronavirus, Part 2

philh28 Apr 2020 21:50 UTC

6 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

(reasonableapproximation.net)

Training Regime Day 24: Resolve Cycles 2

Mark Xu28 Apr 2020 19:00 UTC

20 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

A Book Review

Zack_M_Davis28 Apr 2020 17:43 UTC

15 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(unremediatedgender.space)

UAP and Global Catastrophic Risks

avturchin28 Apr 2020 13:07 UTC

8 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

Growth mindset for better sex

agentydragon28 Apr 2020 8:49 UTC

7 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

A speculative incentive design: self-determined price commitments as a way of averting monopoly

mako yass28 Apr 2020 7:44 UTC

5 points

17 comments1 min readLW link

Emergency Central Planning

jefftk28 Apr 2020 0:50 UTC

16 points

14 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Market-shaping approaches to accelerate COVID-19 response: a role for option-based guarantees?

DerekF and Davidmanheim

27 Apr 2020 22:43 UTC

38 points

2 comments6 min readLW link 1 review

The Best Virtual Worlds for “Hanging Out”

Raemon27 Apr 2020 21:54 UTC

60 points

31 comments10 min readLW link 1 review

[Link] COVID-19 causing deadly blood clots in younger people

orthonormal27 Apr 2020 21:02 UTC

46 points

10 comments1 min readLW link

[Editted for removal]

kungfuhobbit27 Apr 2020 20:59 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What physical trigger-action plans did you implement?

Mati_Roy27 Apr 2020 20:10 UTC

5 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What social trigger-action plans did you implement?

Mati_Roy27 Apr 2020 20:08 UTC

5 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What cognitive trigger-action plans did you implement?

Mati_Roy27 Apr 2020 19:58 UTC

4 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Training Regime Day 23: TAPs 2

Mark Xu27 Apr 2020 17:37 UTC

15 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

A Brief Update on Updates

Slimepriestess27 Apr 2020 17:30 UTC

15 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

(hivewired.wordpress.com)

Cambridge Virtual LW/SSC Meetup

NoSignalNoNoise27 Apr 2020 3:41 UTC

6 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Helping Lily Make Dinner

jefftk27 Apr 2020 2:10 UTC

15 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

It’s Not About The Nail

eapache26 Apr 2020 23:50 UTC

30 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

Training Regime Day 22: Murphyjitsu 2

Mark Xu26 Apr 2020 20:18 UTC

13 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Should we be reassessing the argument for globalization?

jmh26 Apr 2020 13:52 UTC

5 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

Post/meta-skepticism I

Ouroborus26 Apr 2020 0:18 UTC

8 points

10 comments3 min readLW link

(ouroborusdotblog.wordpress.com)

Training Regime Day 21: Executing Intentions

Mark Xu25 Apr 2020 22:16 UTC

13 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] What are your favorite examples of distillation?

NaiveTortoise25 Apr 2020 17:06 UTC

49 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

On New York’s Antibody Tests

Zvi25 Apr 2020 15:20 UTC

31 points

1 comment12 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Fast Takeoff in Biological Intelligence

eapache25 Apr 2020 12:21 UTC

14 points

21 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Why is my (our?) reasoning process noisy?

emanuele ascani25 Apr 2020 12:19 UTC

9 points

4 comments2 min readLW link