[Question] What is a reasonable outside view for the fate of social movements?

Epistemic sta­tus: very hand-wavy and vague, but con­fi­dent there is a sub­stan­tial and well-un­der­stood core. Hop­ing for an an­swer that elu­ci­dates that core more clearly.

It is some­thing of a ra­tio­nal­ist folk the­o­rem that so­cial move­ments face the risk of an “Eter­nal Septem­ber”, or of scal­ing into oblivion. (See e.g. this blog post by Lev­er­age re­search, this pa­per by Owen Cot­ton-Bar­ratt, David Chap­man or Ben­jamin Hoff­man on “Geeks, MOPs and so­ciopaths”, and Scott Alexan­der on “the tox­o­plasma of rage”).

I’ve had the sense that some cock­tail of Han­so­nian/​Dun­bar­ian evolu­tion­ary psy­chol­ogy, ba­sic game the­ory/​microe­co­nomics, memetic the­ory and Stur­geon’s law, should pre­dict this. That is, that some rea­son­ably op­er­a­tional­ised ver­sion of the claim “most so­cial move­ments fail” is true.

Yet I am not able to point to >=5 his­tor­i­cal ex­am­ples of so­cial move­ments that suffered this fate, along with some gears for what went wrong.

Hence I’m look­ing for links, his­tor­i­cal ex­am­ples, more fleshed-out gears, … any­thing that might form a more rigor­ous refer­ence point for an out­side view on the fate of so­cial move­ments.

No answers.