I’m not particularly interested in bounties and therefore am not trying to randomize anything. I’ve worked backwards from the end of the (alphabetically-ordered) list and find the following:
World Cleanup Day: Too early to tell.
Women’s suffrage movement: Unqualified success.
Women’s liberation movement: Big success. Movement (or something like it) is still around, but its present-day balance of good versus harm is controversial (or should I say “problematic”?).
Women Against War: actually two movements. One in the 1950s was anti-Vietnam-War; it doesn’t appear to have had much success, but the war did eventually end. The more recent one is, I think, too recent to evaluate.
Wikimedia: Still around and going strong. Not clear to me to what extent “social movement” is a good description of it, though.
Western Cape Anti-Eviction Campaign: Seems like it still exists and is still campaigning against evictions in South Africa. Appears to have inspired similar campaigns elsewhere in the world. I don’t know how much actual success it’s had.
White Wednesdays: this seems to be one person’s campaign rather than an actual movement, and at only ~18mo old too young to assess for this sort of problem.
Voluntary Human Extinction Movement: clearly hasn’t _succeeded_ since the human race is still here and its population is still growing; my impression is that VHEMT hasn’t had any impact to speak of, but I haven’t heard of it suffering anything Eternal-September-like.
Via Campesina: Still seems to be around and pursuing something like its original goals. I have no idea how much difference it’s actually making (still less whether any difference is actually beneficial, but that’s not really the point here).
Veganism: Still around, still pursuing original goals; I think roughly constant over time.
I’m not particularly interested in bounties and therefore am not trying to randomize anything. I’ve worked backwards from the end of the (alphabetically-ordered) list and find the following:
World Cleanup Day: Too early to tell.
Women’s suffrage movement: Unqualified success.
Women’s liberation movement: Big success. Movement (or something like it) is still around, but its present-day balance of good versus harm is controversial (or should I say “problematic”?).
Women Against War: actually two movements. One in the 1950s was anti-Vietnam-War; it doesn’t appear to have had much success, but the war did eventually end. The more recent one is, I think, too recent to evaluate.
Wikimedia: Still around and going strong. Not clear to me to what extent “social movement” is a good description of it, though.
Western Cape Anti-Eviction Campaign: Seems like it still exists and is still campaigning against evictions in South Africa. Appears to have inspired similar campaigns elsewhere in the world. I don’t know how much actual success it’s had.
White Wednesdays: this seems to be one person’s campaign rather than an actual movement, and at only ~18mo old too young to assess for this sort of problem.
Voluntary Human Extinction Movement: clearly hasn’t _succeeded_ since the human race is still here and its population is still growing; my impression is that VHEMT hasn’t had any impact to speak of, but I haven’t heard of it suffering anything Eternal-September-like.
Via Campesina: Still seems to be around and pursuing something like its original goals. I have no idea how much difference it’s actually making (still less whether any difference is actually beneficial, but that’s not really the point here).
Veganism: Still around, still pursuing original goals; I think roughly constant over time.
What’s your “reasonable sounding metric” of success?
None. Just giving impressions. I didn’t do anything like 25% either :-).