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Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021

NunoSempereDec 2, 2021, 9:44 PM

18 points

7 votes

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2 comments6 min readLW link

“Infohazard” is a predominantly conflict-theoretic concept

jessicataDec 2, 2021, 5:54 PM

45 points

22 votes

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17 comments14 min readLW link

(unstableontology.com)

Covid 12/2: But Aside From That

ZviDec 2, 2021, 4:20 PM

36 points

19 votes

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11 comments9 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Omicron Post #3

ZviDec 2, 2021, 3:10 PM

57 points

28 votes

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15 comments13 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Built-in Measuring Spoons

jefftkDec 2, 2021, 1:20 PM

10 points

2 votes

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0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket

ZviDec 2, 2021, 12:50 PM

39 points

18 votes

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10 comments7 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Sydney AI Safety Fellowship

Chris_LeongDec 2, 2021, 7:34 AM

22 points

7 votes

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0 comments2 min readLW link

Morality is Scary

Wei DaiDec 2, 2021, 6:35 AM

234 points

138 votes

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116 comments4 min readLW link 1 review

AXRP Episode 12 - AI Existential Risk with Paul Christiano

DanielFilanDec 2, 2021, 2:20 AM

38 points

11 votes

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0 comments126 min readLW link

Common Probability Distributions

jsteinhardtDec 2, 2021, 1:50 AM

44 points

19 votes

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3 comments5 min readLW link

(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

The 2020 Review

RaemonDec 2, 2021, 12:39 AM

112 points

38 votes

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39 comments6 min readLW link

Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works

Eliezer YudkowskyDec 1, 2021, 10:35 PM

156 points

117 votes

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144 comments65 min readLW link 1 review

Open & Welcome Thread December 2021

PatternDec 1, 2021, 7:57 PM

15 points

6 votes

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31 comments1 min readLW link

Viral Mutation, Pandemics and Social Response

jmhDec 1, 2021, 6:36 PM

5 points

1 vote

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0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Are explanations that explain more phenomena always more unlikely than narrower versions?

FinalFormal2Dec 1, 2021, 6:34 PM

3 points

4 votes

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4 comments1 min readLW link

Taking Clones Seriously

Raymond DouglasDec 1, 2021, 5:29 PM

56 points

33 votes

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45 comments2 min readLW link

Hypotheses about Finding Knowledge and One-Shot Causal Entanglements

J BostockDec 1, 2021, 5:01 PM

16 points

4 votes

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4 comments5 min readLW link

The Limits Of Medicine—Part 1 - Small Molecules

George3d6Dec 1, 2021, 3:51 PM

26 points

13 votes

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1 comment9 min readLW link

(www.epistem.ink)

FDA Votes on Molunpiravir

ZviDec 1, 2021, 3:00 PM

59 points

33 votes

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3 comments8 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] How do you write original rationalist essays?

lumenwritesDec 1, 2021, 8:08 AM

25 points

19 votes

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18 comments1 min readLW link

Experience with Cue Covid Testing

jefftkDec 1, 2021, 2:50 AM

19 points

9 votes

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2 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

The Most /Important/ Century? UPDATE: location change

ThewalDec 1, 2021, 1:52 AM

1 point

1 vote

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0 comments1 min readLW link

Infra-Bayesian physicalism: proofs part II

Vanessa KosoyNov 30, 2021, 10:27 PM

9 points

2 votes

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0 comments25 min readLW link

Infra-Bayesian physicalism: proofs part I

Vanessa KosoyNov 30, 2021, 10:26 PM

9 points

3 votes

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0 comments21 min readLW link

Infra-Bayesian physicalism: a formal theory of naturalized induction

Vanessa KosoyNov 30, 2021, 10:25 PM

114 points

39 votes

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23 comments42 min readLW link 1 review

DC Winter Solstice

maiaNov 30, 2021, 9:29 PM

11 points

4 votes

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1 comment1 min readLW link

Relying on Future Creativity

J BostockNov 30, 2021, 8:12 PM

18 points

12 votes

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0 comments1 min readLW link

Reneging Prosocially

Duncan Sabien (Inactive)Nov 30, 2021, 7:01 PM

174 points

90 votes

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15 comments17 min readLW link 1 review

Tears Must Flow

sapphireNov 30, 2021, 6:37 PM

21 points

36 votes

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26 comments1 min readLW link

Machine Agents, Hybrid Superintelligences, and The Loss of Human Control (Chapter 1)

Justin BullockNov 30, 2021, 5:35 PM

4 points

4 votes

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0 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Looking for reasoned discussion on Geert Vanden Bossche’s ideas? +6 Months on...

megabranflakeNov 30, 2021, 4:30 PM

12 points

6 votes

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2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do Bayesians tell what does and doesn’t count as evidence (which, e.g., hypotheses may render more or less probable if true)? Is it possible for something to fuzzily-be evidence?

LVSNNov 30, 2021, 12:52 PM

2 points

1 vote

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10 comments1 min readLW link

My take on higher-order game theory

NisanNov 30, 2021, 5:56 AM

40 points

16 votes

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8 comments5 min readLW link

AI Governance Fundamentals—Curriculum and Application

MauNov 30, 2021, 2:19 AM

17 points

7 votes

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0 comments1 min readLW link

Seeking Truth Too Hard Can Keep You from Winning

Gordon Seidoh WorleyNov 30, 2021, 2:16 AM

27 points

15 votes

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8 comments3 min readLW link

Visible Thoughts Project and Bounty Announcement

So8resNov 30, 2021, 12:19 AM

249 points

96 votes

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106 comments13 min readLW link 1 review

Soares, Tallinn, and Yudkowsky discuss AGI cognition

So8res, Eliezer Yudkowsky and jaan

Nov 29, 2021, 7:26 PM

121 points

39 votes

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39 comments40 min readLW link 1 review

[Question] COVID Era: Updating On Life Risks

jmhNov 29, 2021, 5:27 PM

6 points

2 votes

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2 comments3 min readLW link

Snoo App Thoughts

jefftkNov 29, 2021, 4:40 PM

11 points

2 votes

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5 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Omicron Variant Post #2

ZviNov 29, 2021, 4:30 PM

120 points

61 votes

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34 comments14 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Comments on Allan Dafoe on AI Governance

Alex FlintNov 29, 2021, 4:16 PM

13 points

6 votes

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0 comments7 min readLW link

How to measure FLOP/s for Neural Networks empirically?

Marius HobbhahnNov 29, 2021, 3:18 PM

16 points

8 votes

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5 comments7 min readLW link

Watching Myself Program

mattoNov 29, 2021, 1:44 PM

56 points

35 votes

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12 comments2 min readLW link

Question/Issue with the 5/10 Problem

acgtNov 29, 2021, 10:45 AM

6 points

2 votes

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3 comments3 min readLW link

Redwood Research is hiring for several roles

Jack R and billzito

Nov 29, 2021, 12:16 AM

44 points

15 votes

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0 comments1 min readLW link

Compute Research Questions and Metrics—Transformative AI and Compute [4/4]

lennartNov 28, 2021, 10:49 PM

7 points

4 votes

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0 comments16 min readLW link

Anthropics and the Universal Distribution

Joe CarlsmithNov 28, 2021, 8:35 PM

52 points

14 votes

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9 comments47 min readLW link

The Rationalists of the 1950s (and before) also called themselves “Rationalists”

Owain_EvansNov 28, 2021, 8:17 PM

189 points

89 votes

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33 comments3 min readLW link 1 review

[Question] Is it better to fix a problem directly, or start again so the problem never happens?

Oluwalase JothamNov 28, 2021, 8:00 PM

2 points

2 votes

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4 comments1 min readLW link

TTS audio of “Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty”

Quintin PopeNov 28, 2021, 6:11 PM

4 points

1 vote

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3 comments1 min readLW link

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