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Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021

NunoSempere2 Dec 2021 21:44 UTC

18 points

2 comments6 min readLW link

“Infohazard” is a predominantly conflict-theoretic concept

jessicata2 Dec 2021 17:54 UTC

45 points

17 comments14 min readLW link

(unstableontology.com)

Covid 12/2: But Aside From That

Zvi2 Dec 2021 16:20 UTC

36 points

11 comments9 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Omicron Post #3

Zvi2 Dec 2021 15:10 UTC

57 points

15 comments13 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Built-in Measuring Spoons

jefftk2 Dec 2021 13:20 UTC

10 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Covid Prediction Markets at Polymarket

Zvi2 Dec 2021 12:50 UTC

39 points

10 comments7 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Sydney AI Safety Fellowship

Chris_Leong2 Dec 2021 7:34 UTC

22 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Morality is Scary

Wei Dai2 Dec 2021 6:35 UTC

193 points

116 comments4 min readLW link 1 review

AXRP Episode 12 - AI Existential Risk with Paul Christiano

DanielFilan2 Dec 2021 2:20 UTC

38 points

0 comments126 min readLW link

Common Probability Distributions

jsteinhardt2 Dec 2021 1:50 UTC

44 points

3 comments5 min readLW link

(bounded-regret.ghost.io)

The 2020 Review

Raemon2 Dec 2021 0:39 UTC

112 points

39 comments6 min readLW link

Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works

Eliezer Yudkowsky1 Dec 2021 22:35 UTC

165 points

142 comments65 min readLW link 1 review

Open & Welcome Thread December 2021

Pattern1 Dec 2021 19:57 UTC

15 points

31 comments1 min readLW link

Viral Mutation, Pandemics and Social Response

jmh1 Dec 2021 18:36 UTC

5 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Are explanations that explain more phenomena always more unlikely than narrower versions?

FinalFormal21 Dec 2021 18:34 UTC

3 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

Taking Clones Seriously

Raymond D1 Dec 2021 17:29 UTC

58 points

45 comments2 min readLW link

Hypotheses about Finding Knowledge and One-Shot Causal Entanglements

J Bostock1 Dec 2021 17:01 UTC

16 points

4 comments5 min readLW link

The Limits Of Medicine—Part 1 - Small Molecules

George3d61 Dec 2021 15:51 UTC

26 points

1 comment9 min readLW link

(www.epistem.ink)

FDA Votes on Molunpiravir

Zvi1 Dec 2021 15:00 UTC

59 points

3 comments8 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

[Question] How do you write original rationalist essays?

lumenwrites1 Dec 2021 8:08 UTC

24 points

19 comments1 min readLW link

Experience with Cue Covid Testing

jefftk1 Dec 2021 2:50 UTC

19 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

The Most /Important/ Century? UPDATE: location change

Thewal1 Dec 2021 1:52 UTC

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Infra-Bayesian physicalism: proofs part II

Vanessa Kosoy30 Nov 2021 22:27 UTC

9 points

0 comments25 min readLW link

Infra-Bayesian physicalism: proofs part I

Vanessa Kosoy30 Nov 2021 22:26 UTC

9 points

0 comments21 min readLW link

Infra-Bayesian physicalism: a formal theory of naturalized induction

Vanessa Kosoy30 Nov 2021 22:25 UTC

108 points

23 comments41 min readLW link 1 review

DC Winter Solstice

maia30 Nov 2021 21:29 UTC

11 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Relying on Future Creativity

J Bostock30 Nov 2021 20:12 UTC

17 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Reneging Prosocially

[DEACTIVATED] Duncan Sabien30 Nov 2021 19:01 UTC

172 points

15 comments17 min readLW link 1 review

Tears Must Flow

sapphire30 Nov 2021 18:37 UTC

21 points

26 comments1 min readLW link

Machine Agents, Hybrid Superintelligences, and The Loss of Human Control (Chapter 1)

Justin Bullock30 Nov 2021 17:35 UTC

4 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] Looking for reasoned discussion on Geert Vanden Bossche’s ideas? +6 Months on...

megabranflake30 Nov 2021 16:30 UTC

12 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How do Bayesians tell what does and doesn’t count as evidence (which, e.g., hypotheses may render more or less probable if true)? Is it possible for something to fuzzily-be evidence?

LVSN30 Nov 2021 12:52 UTC

2 points

10 comments1 min readLW link

Self-studying to develop an inside-view model of AI alignment; co-studiers welcome!

Vael Gates30 Nov 2021 9:25 UTC

13 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

My take on higher-order game theory

Nisan30 Nov 2021 5:56 UTC

41 points

8 comments5 min readLW link

AI Governance Fundamentals—Curriculum and Application

Mau30 Nov 2021 2:19 UTC

17 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Seeking Truth Too Hard Can Keep You from Winning

Gordon Seidoh Worley30 Nov 2021 2:16 UTC

27 points

8 comments3 min readLW link

Visible Thoughts Project and Bounty Announcement

So8res30 Nov 2021 0:19 UTC

249 points

104 comments13 min readLW link 1 review

Soares, Tallinn, and Yudkowsky discuss AGI cognition

So8res, Eliezer Yudkowsky and jaan

29 Nov 2021 19:26 UTC

121 points

39 comments40 min readLW link 1 review

[Question] COVID Era: Updating On Life Risks

jmh29 Nov 2021 17:27 UTC

6 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

Snoo App Thoughts

jefftk29 Nov 2021 16:40 UTC

11 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Omicron Variant Post #2

Zvi29 Nov 2021 16:30 UTC

120 points

34 comments14 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Comments on Allan Dafoe on AI Governance

Alex Flint29 Nov 2021 16:16 UTC

13 points

0 comments7 min readLW link

How to measure FLOP/s for Neural Networks empirically?

Marius Hobbhahn29 Nov 2021 15:18 UTC

16 points

5 comments7 min readLW link

Watching Myself Program

matto29 Nov 2021 13:44 UTC

56 points

12 comments2 min readLW link

Question/Issue with the 5/10 Problem

acgt29 Nov 2021 10:45 UTC

6 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

Redwood Research is hiring for several roles

Jack R and billzito

29 Nov 2021 0:16 UTC

44 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Compute Research Questions and Metrics—Transformative AI and Compute [4/4]

lennart28 Nov 2021 22:49 UTC

7 points

0 comments16 min readLW link

Anthropics and the Universal Distribution

Joe Carlsmith28 Nov 2021 20:35 UTC

52 points

9 comments47 min readLW link

The Rationalists of the 1950s (and before) also called themselves “Rationalists”

Owain_Evans28 Nov 2021 20:17 UTC

187 points

30 comments3 min readLW link 1 review

[Question] Is it better to fix a problem directly, or start again so the problem never happens?

Oluwalase Jotham28 Nov 2021 20:00 UTC

2 points

4 comments1 min readLW link