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Eight Definitions of Observability

Scott Garrabrant10 Nov 2020 23:37 UTC

34 points

26 comments12 min readLW link

Probability vs Likelihood

abramdemski10 Nov 2020 21:28 UTC

114 points

10 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] What Would Advanced Social Technology Look Like?

johnswentworth10 Nov 2020 17:55 UTC

48 points

44 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Did anybody calculate the Briers score for per-state election forecasts?

ChristianKl10 Nov 2020 17:51 UTC

11 points

15 comments1 min readLW link

Why I’m Writing A Book

Samo Burja10 Nov 2020 16:50 UTC

33 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

(medium.com)

[Question] Does BioNtech’s vaccine result of 90% disease prevention mean that 90% of the vaccinated can’t pass the virus to other people?

ChristianKl10 Nov 2020 15:27 UTC

15 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

Tweet markets for impersonal truth tracking?

KatjaGrace10 Nov 2020 7:10 UTC

24 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

(meteuphoric.com)

Are the social sciences challenging because of fundamental difficulties or because of imposed ones?

ozziegooen10 Nov 2020 4:56 UTC

56 points

12 comments11 min readLW link

[Question] Please steelman the accusations of election fraud

Tim Liptrot10 Nov 2020 4:39 UTC

2 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

Modeling humans: what’s the point?

Charlie Steiner10 Nov 2020 1:30 UTC

10 points

1 comment3 min readLW link

My default frame: some fundamentals and background beliefs

Pontor10 Nov 2020 0:04 UTC

6 points

4 comments7 min readLW link

Sleeping Beauty, Cloning Beauty, and Frequentist Arguments In Anthropic Paradoxes

dadadarren9 Nov 2020 23:17 UTC

5 points

11 comments4 min readLW link

The 300-year journey to the covid vaccine

jasoncrawford9 Nov 2020 23:06 UTC

123 points

9 comments5 min readLW link 2 reviews

(rootsofprogress.org)

Automating reasoning about the future at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 21:51 UTC

17 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(ought.org)

Notes on Self-Control

David Gross9 Nov 2020 21:27 UTC

12 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

Clarifying inner alignment terminology

evhub9 Nov 2020 20:40 UTC

113 points

17 comments3 min readLW link 1 review

[Question] What fraction of Dan Ariely’s Irrational Game hasn’t replicated?

Mati_Roy9 Nov 2020 20:25 UTC

8 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Open Problems Create Paradigms

johnswentworth9 Nov 2020 20:04 UTC

50 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Committing, Assuming, Externalizing, and Internalizing

Scott Garrabrant9 Nov 2020 16:59 UTC

31 points

25 comments10 min readLW link

Time Travel Markets for Intellectual Accounting

abramdemski9 Nov 2020 16:58 UTC

50 points

8 comments7 min readLW link

Building AGI Using Language Models

leogao9 Nov 2020 16:33 UTC

12 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

(leogao.dev)

Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.

NunoSempere and Alex Lawsen

9 Nov 2020 16:20 UTC

44 points

21 comments5 min readLW link

Costs and benefits of metaphysics

George3d69 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC

11 points

2 comments11 min readLW link

Why You Should Care About Goal-Directedness

adamShimi9 Nov 2020 12:48 UTC

38 points

15 comments9 min readLW link

Competitive Universal Basic Services?

Gentzel9 Nov 2020 3:20 UTC

13 points

20 comments2 min readLW link

(theconsequentialist.wordpress.com)

Notes on Temperance

David Gross9 Nov 2020 2:33 UTC

15 points

2 comments10 min readLW link

Model Depth as Panacea and Obfuscator

abstractapplic9 Nov 2020 0:02 UTC

8 points

3 comments15 min readLW link

Where Do We Go From Here?

[deleted]8 Nov 2020 19:53 UTC

7 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

When Hindsight Isn’t 20/20: Incentive Design With Imperfect Credit Allocation

johnswentworth8 Nov 2020 19:16 UTC

81 points

24 comments6 min readLW link

Two reasons to expect a peaceful change of power in the US

Tim Liptrot8 Nov 2020 17:13 UTC

11 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

Cartesian Frames Definitions

Rob Bensinger8 Nov 2020 12:44 UTC

28 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Is corruption a valuable antidote to overregulation?

ChristianKl8 Nov 2020 12:15 UTC

17 points

23 comments1 min readLW link

Scoring 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Predictions

Zack_M_Davis8 Nov 2020 2:28 UTC

38 points

7 comments4 min readLW link

(zackmdavis.net)

Sunday 8th 2pm PT: Scott Garrabrant’s Office Hours / Cartesian Frames

Raemon8 Nov 2020 2:03 UTC

10 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Frequentist practice incorporates prior information all the time

Maxwell Peterson7 Nov 2020 20:43 UTC

18 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Three Open Problems in Aging

johnswentworth7 Nov 2020 19:39 UTC

48 points

8 comments5 min readLW link

Can we prime people to take risk?

tonyoconnor7 Nov 2020 17:17 UTC

5 points

11 comments3 min readLW link

Somerville Mask Usage II

jefftk7 Nov 2020 17:00 UTC

17 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

Daniel Kokotajlo7 Nov 2020 12:44 UTC

43 points

16 comments2 min readLW link

Why philosophy of science?

Richard_Ngo7 Nov 2020 11:10 UTC

55 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

the scaling “inconsistency”: openAI’s new insight

nostalgebraist7 Nov 2020 7:40 UTC

148 points

14 comments9 min readLW link

(nostalgebraist.tumblr.com)

Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction

Jeffrey Ladish7 Nov 2020 5:42 UTC

156 points

48 comments11 min readLW link 3 reviews

Does SGD Produce Deceptive Alignment?

Mark Xu6 Nov 2020 23:48 UTC

96 points

9 comments16 min readLW link

Ethics in Many Worlds

fin6 Nov 2020 23:21 UTC

8 points

24 comments9 min readLW link

The Power & Tragedy of Names

SocratesDissatisfied6 Nov 2020 22:50 UTC

15 points

4 comments5 min readLW link

Observe, babble, and prune

DirectedEvolution6 Nov 2020 21:45 UTC

9 points

1 comment8 min readLW link

A review of Where Is My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall

jasoncrawford6 Nov 2020 20:01 UTC

108 points

23 comments11 min readLW link

(rootsofprogress.org)

Covid ‘Mink variant’

henryaj6 Nov 2020 17:50 UTC

2 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

Generalized Heat Engine II: Thermodynamic Efficiency Limit

johnswentworth6 Nov 2020 17:30 UTC

70 points

2 comments7 min readLW link

Teach People to Recognize the Sound of Covid?

jefftk6 Nov 2020 14:30 UTC

21 points

8 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)