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Effi­cient Mar­ket Hypothesis

TagLast edit: 31 Jul 2020 19:36 UTC by Multicore

The Efficient Market Hypothesis states that existing market prices already account for all available information, and that it is therefore impossible to exploit the market unless you have information other traders don’t.

Zoom Tech­nolo­gies, Inc. vs. the Effi­cient Mar­kets Hypothesis

Zack_M_Davis11 May 2020 6:00 UTC
72 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

The EMH Aten’t Dead

Richard Meadows15 May 2020 20:44 UTC
190 points
86 comments19 min readLW link

Be­ing the (Pareto) Best in the World

johnswentworth24 Jun 2019 18:36 UTC
345 points
54 comments3 min readLW link3 reviews

Mar­kets are Anti-Inductive

Eliezer Yudkowsky26 Feb 2009 0:55 UTC
79 points
62 comments4 min readLW link

The Effi­cient Mar­ket Hy­poth­e­sis in Research

libai8 Jul 2021 17:00 UTC
11 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

How Effi­cient is the Char­i­ta­ble Mar­ket?

lukeprog24 Aug 2013 5:57 UTC
25 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Dis­solv­ing the “Is the Effi­cient Mar­ket Hy­poth­e­sis Dead?” Question

Alexei2 Aug 2020 4:46 UTC
36 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

List of civil­i­sa­tional inadequacy

ChristianKl23 Nov 2017 13:56 UTC
22 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

Anti-EMH Ev­i­dence (and a plea for help)

Wei_Dai5 Dec 2020 18:29 UTC
94 points
47 comments5 min readLW link

The EMH is False—Spe­cific Strong Evidence

sapphire18 Mar 2021 18:38 UTC
60 points
83 comments6 min readLW link

Chap­ter 4: The Effi­cient Mar­ket Hypothesis

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Mar 2015 19:00 UTC
58 points
4 comments6 min readLW link

Hero Licensing

Eliezer Yudkowsky21 Nov 2017 21:13 UTC
216 points
83 comments52 min readLW link

[Question] What are the best prece­dents for in­dus­tries failing to in­vest in valuable AI re­search?

Daniel Kokotajlo14 Dec 2020 23:57 UTC
18 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Post-crash mar­ket effi­ciency 1696-2020

bfinn22 May 2020 14:13 UTC
21 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Inad­e­quacy and Modesty

Eliezer Yudkowsky28 Oct 2017 21:51 UTC
125 points
82 comments18 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Effi­cient Mar­kets and Academia

johnswentworth30 Apr 2020 21:59 UTC
52 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

The Eco­nomic Con­se­quences of Noise Traders

FactorialCode14 Jun 2020 17:14 UTC
45 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(www.nber.org)

Con­trar­ian LW views and their eco­nomic implications

Larks8 Oct 2014 23:48 UTC
30 points
126 comments1 min readLW link

Sun­day July 12 — talks by Scott Garrabrant, Alexflint, alexei, Stu­art_Armstrong

8 Jul 2020 0:27 UTC
19 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

An Equil­ibrium of No Free Energy

Eliezer Yudkowsky31 Oct 2017 21:27 UTC
121 points
50 comments27 min readLW link

Moloch’s Toolbox (1/​2)

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Nov 2017 21:46 UTC
143 points
80 comments33 min readLW link

Moloch’s Toolbox (2/​2)

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 Nov 2017 1:58 UTC
106 points
54 comments24 min readLW link

Zero­ing Out

Zvi5 Nov 2017 16:10 UTC
45 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Limits of Cur­rent US Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets (Pre­dic­tIt Case Study)

aphyer14 Jul 2020 7:24 UTC
188 points
49 comments7 min readLW link

Effi­cient Mar­ket Frontier

Alexei22 Aug 2020 23:52 UTC
19 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

Vac­ci­na­tion with the EMH

DirectedEvolution29 Dec 2020 3:05 UTC
17 points
17 comments8 min readLW link

The Effi­cient LessWrong Hy­poth­e­sis—Stock In­vest­ing Competition

ViktorThink11 Apr 2022 20:43 UTC
31 points
31 comments2 min readLW link

Be less scared of overconfidence

benkuhn30 Nov 2022 15:20 UTC
154 points
22 comments9 min readLW link
(www.benkuhn.net)

Pro­gram­mers Should Plan For Lower Pay

jefftk29 Dec 2019 3:20 UTC
63 points
70 comments2 min readLW link
(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] Is the “busi­ness cy­cle” an ac­tual eco­nomic prin­ci­ple?

Liron18 Jun 2019 14:52 UTC
43 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Mar­ket Misconceptions

gilch20 Aug 2020 4:46 UTC
27 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Stock mar­ket hints for 2021 from past crashes

bfinn30 Dec 2020 20:05 UTC
19 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Vio­lat­ing the EMH—Pre­dic­tion Markets

sapphire28 Mar 2021 4:05 UTC
40 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Coron­avirus crash vs history

bfinn14 Jun 2021 10:55 UTC
39 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Re­tail In­vestor Advantages

leogao7 Dec 2021 2:08 UTC
13 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Your Fu­ture Self’s Cre­dences Should Be Un­pre­dictable to You

David Udell11 Mar 2022 23:33 UTC
6 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Op­ti­miza­tion and Ad­e­quacy in Five Bullets

james.lucassen6 Jun 2022 5:48 UTC
35 points
2 comments4 min readLW link
(jlucassen.com)

pa­tio11′s “Ob­ser­va­tions from an EA-ad­ja­cent (?) char­i­ta­ble effort”

RobertM10 Dec 2022 0:27 UTC
43 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

AGI and the EMH: mar­kets are not ex­pect­ing al­igned or un­al­igned AI in the next 30 years

10 Jan 2023 16:06 UTC
114 points
42 comments26 min readLW link

Against us­ing stock prices to fore­cast AI timelines

10 Jan 2023 16:03 UTC
23 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
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