PabloAMC answers Forecasting Thread: AI Timelines

[PabloAMC]

My prediction. Some comments

• Your percentiles:

  • 5th: 2023-05-16

  • 25th: 2033-03-31

  • 50th: 2046-04-13

  • 75th: 2075-11-27

  • 95th: above 2100-01-01

• You think 2034-03-27 is the most likely point

  • You think it’s 6.9X as likely as 2099-05-29