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Eco­nomic Con­se­quences of AGI

TagLast edit: 3 Jun 2021 23:24 UTC by habryka

The economic consequences of artificial general intelligence arise from their fundamentally new properties compared to the human brains currently driving the economy. Once such digital minds become generally intelligent enough to perform a wide range of economic functions, they are likely to bring radical changes, creating great wealth, but also displacing humans out of more and more types of job.

An important aspect of the question is that of economic growth. The invention of AGI or WBE could cause a sudden increase in growth by adding machine intelligence to the pool of human innovators. Machine intelligence could be much cheaper to produce, faster, and qualitatively smarter than human talent. A feedback loop from better machine intelligence technology, to more and better machine researchers, back to better machine intelligence technology could ensue.

Robin Hanson has written much about the economics of whole brain emulation. In his view, the unrestricted creation of additional uploads will cause a Malthusian scenario, where upload wages fall to subsistence levels. He sees the transition to whole brain emulation as a jump to a new “growth mode” with higher exponential growth rates, similar to the transitions to agriculture and industry.

In “The Future of Human Evolution”, Nick Bostrom argues that in an emulated-brain society with individuals living at subsistence levels, entities that possess a large set of features we care about – which he calls flamboyant displays, or culture in general – will be outcompeted by more efficient ones that lack inefficient humans’ cultural aspects. This will lead to elimination of all forms of being that we care about. He proposes that only a Singleton could ensure strict control in order to prevent the elimination of culture through outcompetition.

Others predict that growth will blow up even more suddenly (up to the point where physical limits become relevant), and that growth will be concentrated in a smaller and more coherent set of agents, so that instead of continued free market competition, we will see a singleton emerge.

Blog posts

External links

See also

Some­thing Un­fath­omable: Unal­igned Hu­man­ity and how we’re rac­ing against death with death

Yuli_Ban27 Feb 2023 11:37 UTC
13 points
14 comments19 min readLW link

“Hereti­cal Thoughts on AI” by Eli Dourado

DragonGod19 Jan 2023 16:11 UTC
145 points
38 comments3 min readLW link
(www.elidourado.com)

Dragon Ball’s Hyper­bolic Time Chamber

gwern2 Sep 2012 23:49 UTC
50 points
65 comments1 min readLW link

Rogue AGI Em­bod­ies Valuable In­tel­lec­tual Property

3 Jun 2021 20:37 UTC
71 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Su­per­in­tel­li­gence via whole brain emulation

AlexMennen17 Aug 2016 4:11 UTC
14 points
33 comments3 min readLW link

Hedg­ing our Bets: The Case for Pur­su­ing Whole Brain Emu­la­tion to Safe­guard Hu­man­ity’s Future

inklesspen1 Mar 2010 2:32 UTC
14 points
248 comments3 min readLW link

New WBE implementation

Louie30 Nov 2012 11:16 UTC
27 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

In­ter­mit­tent Distil­la­tions #4: Semi­con­duc­tors, Eco­nomics, In­tel­li­gence, and Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress.

Mark Xu8 Jul 2021 22:14 UTC
81 points
9 comments10 min readLW link

Some thoughts on David Rood­man’s GWP model and its re­la­tion to AI timelines

Tom Davidson19 Jul 2021 22:59 UTC
31 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

The Solow-Swan model of eco­nomic growth

Matthew Barnett29 Aug 2021 18:55 UTC
31 points
6 comments11 min readLW link

AI Sum­mer Harvest

Cleo Nardo4 Apr 2023 3:35 UTC
130 points
10 comments1 min readLW link

The im­pact of whole brain emulation

jefftk14 May 2013 19:59 UTC
4 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

Ex­ces­sive AI growth-rate yields lit­tle so­cio-eco­nomic benefit.

Cleo Nardo4 Apr 2023 19:13 UTC
27 points
22 comments4 min readLW link

AI art isn’t “about to shake things up”. It’s already here.

Davis_Kingsley22 Aug 2022 11:17 UTC
65 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Ar­gu­ment against 20% GDP growth from AI within 10 years [Linkpost]

aogara12 Sep 2022 4:08 UTC
59 points
21 comments5 min readLW link
(twitter.com)

AI Timelines via Cu­mu­la­tive Op­ti­miza­tion Power: Less Long, More Short

jacob_cannell6 Oct 2022 0:21 UTC
139 points
33 comments6 min readLW link

Mod­ify­ing Jones’ “AI Dilemma” Model

harsimony4 Mar 2024 21:55 UTC
5 points
0 comments6 min readLW link
(splittinginfinity.substack.com)

Thriv­ing in the Weird Times: Prepar­ing for the 100X Economy

8 May 2023 13:44 UTC
23 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Adam Smith Meets AI Doomers

James_Miller31 Jan 2024 15:53 UTC
24 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

Wel­come to the decade of Em

Ozyrus10 Apr 2023 7:45 UTC
4 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Overem­ployed Via ChatGPT

Zvi18 Apr 2023 13:40 UTC
57 points
7 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Chad Jones pa­per mod­el­ing AI and x-risk vs. growth

jasoncrawford26 Apr 2023 20:07 UTC
39 points
7 comments2 min readLW link
(web.stanford.edu)

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion: Look­ing At Progress On C. elgans

jefftk29 Oct 2011 15:21 UTC
60 points
85 comments2 min readLW link

Whole Brain Emu­la­tion & DL: imi­ta­tion learn­ing for faster AGI?

gwern22 Oct 2018 15:07 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(www.reddit.com)

[link] Whole Brain Emu­la­tion and the Evolu­tion of Superorganisms

Wei Dai3 May 2011 23:38 UTC
25 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Against us­ing stock prices to fore­cast AI timelines

10 Jan 2023 16:03 UTC
23 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Brain­storm­ing: Slow Takeoff

David Piepgrass23 Jan 2024 6:58 UTC
2 points
0 comments51 min readLW link

After Over­mor­row: Scat­tered Mus­ings on the Im­me­di­ate Post-AGI World

Yuli_Ban24 Feb 2024 15:49 UTC
−3 points
0 comments26 min readLW link

Job Board (28 March 2033)

dr_s28 Mar 2023 22:44 UTC
20 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

AGI: Hire Soft­ware Eng­ineers—All of Them, Right Now

MGow30 Mar 2023 18:40 UTC
−18 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

AGI de­ploy­ment as an act of aggression

dr_s5 Apr 2023 6:39 UTC
27 points
29 comments13 min readLW link

The benev­olence of the butcher

dr_s8 Apr 2023 16:29 UTC
53 points
30 comments6 min readLW link

cy­ber­punk raccoons

bhauth28 Apr 2023 2:52 UTC
20 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(bhauth.com)

2. AIs as Eco­nomic Agents

RogerDearnaley23 Nov 2023 7:07 UTC
9 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Are healthy choices effec­tive for im­prov­ing live ex­pec­tancy any­more?

Christopher King8 May 2023 21:25 UTC
6 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Why Job Dis­place­ment Pre­dic­tions are Wrong: Ex­pla­na­tions of Cog­ni­tive Automation

Moritz Wallawitsch30 May 2023 20:43 UTC
−4 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI is a pro­cess

meijer19738 Jun 2023 8:57 UTC
2 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Phase tran­si­tions and AGI

17 Mar 2022 17:22 UTC
45 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Hyper­bolic takeoff

Ege Erdil9 Apr 2022 15:57 UTC
17 points
7 comments10 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

Em­bod­i­ment is Indis­pens­able for AGI

P. G. Keerthana Gopalakrishnan7 Jun 2022 21:31 UTC
6 points
1 comment6 min readLW link
(keerthanapg.com)

AGI and the EMH: mar­kets are not ex­pect­ing al­igned or un­al­igned AI in the next 30 years

10 Jan 2023 16:06 UTC
117 points
44 comments26 min readLW link

s/​acc: Safe Ac­cel­er­a­tionism Manifesto

lorepieri19 Dec 2023 22:19 UTC
−4 points
5 comments2 min readLW link
(lorenzopieri.com)

Will peo­ple be mo­ti­vated to learn difficult dis­ci­plines and skills with­out eco­nomic in­cen­tive?

Roman Leventov20 Mar 2023 9:26 UTC
18 points
33 comments5 min readLW link
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