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Counterfactuals

TagLast edit: 17 Sep 2020 2:14 UTC by Raemon

Counterfactual reasoning is about looking at choices you could have made, but didn’t.

Counterfactuals are similar to hypotheticals (but tend to focus on choices you could have made, rather than situations you could have been in).

Four fac­tors that mod­er­ate the in­ten­sity of emotions

Ruby24 Nov 2018 20:40 UTC
56 points
11 comments8 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing the Coun­ter­fac­tual Pri­soner’s Dilemma to Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Chris_Leong16 Sep 2020 10:34 UTC
9 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

The Many Faces of In­fra-Beliefs

Diffractor6 Apr 2021 10:43 UTC
15 points
0 comments63 min readLW link

My Cur­rent Take on Counterfactuals

abramdemski9 Apr 2021 17:51 UTC
48 points
10 comments24 min readLW link

Time­less Control

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 Jun 2008 5:16 UTC
29 points
66 comments9 min readLW link

Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory and Meta-Cir­cu­lar De­ci­sion Theory

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Aug 2009 22:07 UTC
31 points
37 comments10 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als, thick and thin

Nisan31 Jul 2018 15:43 UTC
28 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

De­con­fus­ing Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

Chris_Leong30 Jan 2019 15:13 UTC
25 points
16 comments11 min readLW link

Con­di­tion­ing, Coun­ter­fac­tu­als, Ex­plo­ra­tion, and Gears

Diffractor10 Jul 2018 22:11 UTC
28 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging Poker Game

Scott Garrabrant13 Jun 2018 23:34 UTC
82 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mugging

Vladimir_Nesov19 Mar 2009 6:08 UTC
69 points
296 comments2 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Or­a­cles = on­line su­per­vised learn­ing with ran­dom se­lec­tion of train­ing episodes

Wei_Dai10 Sep 2019 8:29 UTC
44 points
26 comments3 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual out­come state tran­si­tion parameters

Anders_H27 Jul 2018 21:13 UTC
36 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual re­siliency test for non-causal models

Stuart_Armstrong30 Aug 2012 17:30 UTC
33 points
78 comments7 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als ver­sus the laws of physics

Stuart_Armstrong18 Feb 2020 13:21 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als are an An­swer, Not a Question

Chris_Leong3 Sep 2019 15:36 UTC
14 points
9 comments4 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als for Perfect Predictors

Chris_Leong6 Aug 2018 12:24 UTC
12 points
17 comments6 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Induction

Diffractor17 Dec 2019 5:03 UTC
22 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Re­pro­gram­ming De­ci­sion Theory

lukeprog10 Sep 2012 1:35 UTC
18 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Calcu­la­tion and Ob­ser­va­tional Knowledge

Vladimir_Nesov31 Jan 2011 16:28 UTC
20 points
188 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als as a mat­ter of So­cial Convention

Chris_Leong30 Nov 2019 10:35 UTC
10 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual trade

owencb9 Mar 2015 13:23 UTC
15 points
19 comments3 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging and Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Vladimir_Nesov5 Sep 2009 22:31 UTC
10 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als: Smok­ing Le­sion vs. New­comb’s

Chris_Leong8 Dec 2019 21:02 UTC
8 points
24 comments3 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­ally un­in­fluence­able agents

Stuart_Armstrong2 Jun 2017 16:17 UTC
9 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als and re­flec­tive oracles

Nisan5 Sep 2018 8:54 UTC
9 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual In­duc­tion (Al­gorithm Sketch, Fix­point proof)

Diffractor17 Dec 2019 5:04 UTC
5 points
2 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging: Why should you pay?

Chris_Leong17 Dec 2019 22:16 UTC
5 points
59 comments3 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual mug­ging: alien ab­duc­tion edition

Emile28 Sep 2010 21:25 UTC
4 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual In­duc­tion (Lemma 4)

Diffractor17 Dec 2019 5:05 UTC
4 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual do-what-I-mean

Stuart_Armstrong27 Oct 2016 13:54 UTC
5 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging v. Sub­jec­tive Probability

MBlume20 Jul 2009 16:31 UTC
4 points
32 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tu­als on POMDP

Stuart_Armstrong2 Jun 2017 16:30 UTC
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual self-defense

MrMind23 Nov 2012 10:15 UTC
2 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual do-what-I-mean

Stuart_Armstrong27 Oct 2016 13:53 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tu­als and Propo­si­tion graphs, Part 1

Donald Hobson22 Aug 2019 22:06 UTC
20 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tu­als are low-res

shminux15 Oct 2018 3:36 UTC
22 points
14 comments1 min readLW link
(donerkebabphilosophy.wordpress.com)

The Coun­ter­fac­tual Pri­soner’s Dilemma

Chris_Leong21 Dec 2019 1:44 UTC
20 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tu­als & the Co­op­er­a­tion Game

Chris_Leong14 Aug 2018 14:00 UTC
16 points
26 comments2 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tu­als and Propo­si­tion graphs, Part 2

Donald Hobson31 Aug 2019 20:58 UTC
13 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Can Coun­ter­fac­tu­als Be True?

Eliezer Yudkowsky24 Jul 2008 4:40 UTC
16 points
47 comments4 min readLW link

A coun­ter­fac­tual and hy­po­thet­i­cal note on AI safety design

Stuart_Armstrong11 Mar 2015 16:20 UTC
13 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tu­als and Propo­si­tion graphs, Part 3

Donald Hobson5 Sep 2019 15:03 UTC
6 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Ex­tremely Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging or: the gist of Trans­par­ent Newcomb

Bongo9 Feb 2011 15:20 UTC
11 points
79 comments1 min readLW link

Prov­abil­ity Coun­ter­fac­tu­als vs Three Ax­ioms of Galles and Pearl

IAFF-User-5230 Aug 2015 2:48 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(epsilonofdoom.blogspot.com)

Log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als for ran­dom algorithms

Vanessa Kosoy6 Jan 2016 13:29 UTC
5 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

[LINK] Coun­ter­fac­tual Strategies

Strilanc17 Jun 2014 19:29 UTC
5 points
14 comments1 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tu­als Con­sis­tent Un­der Self-Modification

abramdemski15 Dec 2015 6:38 UTC
3 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als and differ­en­tial privacy

Nisan4 Feb 2018 0:17 UTC
1 point
0 comments5 min readLW link

Prob­lems with Coun­ter­fac­tual Oracles

Michaël Trazzi11 Jun 2019 18:10 UTC
13 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

What makes coun­ter­fac­tu­als com­pa­rable?

Chris_Leong24 Apr 2020 22:47 UTC
11 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

The odd coun­ter­fac­tu­als of play­ing chicken

Benya_Fallenstein2 Feb 2015 7:15 UTC
6 points
0 comments8 min readLW link

Haz­ing as Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging?

SilasBarta11 Oct 2010 14:17 UTC
5 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Third-per­son counterfactuals

Benya_Fallenstein3 Feb 2015 1:13 UTC
4 points
0 comments6 min readLW link

The many coun­ter­fac­tu­als of coun­ter­fac­tual mugging

Scott Garrabrant12 Apr 2016 20:04 UTC
2 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Sta­bi­liz­ing log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als by pseudorandomization

Vanessa Kosoy25 May 2016 12:05 UTC
1 point
0 comments8 min readLW link

Un-ma­nipu­la­ble counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong12 Feb 2015 19:51 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Orthog­o­nal­ity: ac­tion counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong17 Feb 2015 21:04 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

New­comblike prob­lem: Coun­ter­fac­tual Informant

Clippy12 Apr 2012 20:25 UTC
−3 points
24 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Would solv­ing log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als solve an­throp­ics?

Chris_Leong5 Apr 2019 11:08 UTC
20 points
52 comments1 min readLW link

Op­ti­mal and Causal Coun­ter­fac­tual Worlds

Scott Garrabrant12 May 2015 3:16 UTC
14 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Sleep­ing Beauty gets coun­ter­fac­tu­ally mugged

Stuart_Armstrong26 Mar 2009 11:44 UTC
4 points
34 comments2 min readLW link

Causal graphs and counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong30 Aug 2016 16:12 UTC
7 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Tran­si­tive ne­go­ti­a­tions with coun­ter­fac­tual agents

Scott Garrabrant20 Oct 2016 23:27 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Agents de­tect­ing agents: coun­ter­fac­tual ver­sus influence

Stuart_Armstrong18 Sep 2015 16:17 UTC
5 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Hu­mans get differ­ent counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong23 Mar 2015 14:54 UTC
4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Causal graphs and counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong30 Aug 2016 16:06 UTC
0 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Curse Of The Counterfactual

pjeby1 Nov 2019 18:34 UTC
98 points
32 comments19 min readLW link2 nominations1 review

Two Alter­na­tives to Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

jessicata1 Apr 2020 9:48 UTC
30 points
61 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Ad­dress­ing three prob­lems with coun­ter­fac­tual cor­rigi­bil­ity: bad bets, defend­ing against back­stops, and over­con­fi­dence.

RyanCarey21 Oct 2018 12:03 UTC
22 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Stan­dard ML Or­a­cles vs Coun­ter­fac­tual ones

Stuart_Armstrong10 Oct 2018 20:01 UTC
17 points
5 comments6 min readLW link

An en­vi­ron­ment for study­ing counterfactuals

Nisan11 Jul 2018 0:14 UTC
15 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

On the Role of Coun­ter­fac­tu­als in Learning

Max Kanwal11 Jul 2018 2:45 UTC
11 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Does TDT pay in Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging?

Bongo29 Nov 2010 21:31 UTC
4 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

You have just been Coun­ter­fac­tu­ally Mugged!

CronoDAS19 Aug 2009 22:24 UTC
7 points
25 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] De­ci­sions with Non-Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tu­als: re­quest for input

reavowed24 Oct 2019 17:23 UTC
3 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What are some con­crete prob­lems about log­i­cal coun­ter­fac­tu­als?

Chris_Leong16 Dec 2018 10:20 UTC
25 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

I Was Not Al­most Wrong But I Was Al­most Right: Close-Call Coun­ter­fac­tu­als and Bias

Kaj_Sotala8 Mar 2012 5:39 UTC
86 points
40 comments9 min readLW link

Diver­gence on Ev­i­dence Due to Differ­ing Pri­ors—A Poli­ti­cal Case Study

Davidmanheim16 Sep 2019 11:01 UTC
27 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

A use­ful level distinction

Charlie Steiner24 Feb 2018 6:39 UTC
8 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

JFK was not as­sas­si­nated: prior prob­a­bil­ity zero events

Stuart_Armstrong27 Apr 2016 11:47 UTC
37 points
48 comments3 min readLW link

Mo­ti­vat­ing a Se­man­tics of Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

Sam_A_Barnett22 Sep 2017 1:10 UTC
21 points
3 comments2 min readLW link

Open Prob­lems Re­gard­ing Coun­ter­fac­tu­als: An In­tro­duc­tion For Beginners

Diffractor18 Jul 2017 2:21 UTC
21 points
4 comments1 min readLW link
(www.overleaf.com)

UDT might not pay a Coun­ter­fac­tual Mugger

winwonce21 Nov 2020 23:27 UTC
5 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Plan­ning in AGI Systems

Koen.Holtman3 Feb 2021 13:54 UTC
5 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Graph­i­cal World Models, Coun­ter­fac­tu­als, and Ma­chine Learn­ing Agents

Koen.Holtman17 Feb 2021 11:07 UTC
6 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

Creat­ing AGI Safety Interlocks

Koen.Holtman5 Feb 2021 12:01 UTC
7 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Safely con­trol­ling the AGI agent re­ward function

Koen.Holtman17 Feb 2021 14:47 UTC
7 points
0 comments5 min readLW link
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