Counterfactuals

Tag

Some thoughts on “The Nature of Counterfactuals”

tailcalled16 Jan 2022 18:12 UTC

20 points

11 comments11 min readLW link

Applying the Counterfactual Prisoner’s Dilemma to Logical Uncertainty

Chris_Leong16 Sep 2020 10:34 UTC

9 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Circular Counterfactuals “Only that which Happens is Possible”

JohnBuridan23 Mar 2022 14:40 UTC

4 points

15 comments9 min readLW link

Results: Circular Dependency of Counterfactuals Prize

Chris_Leong5 Apr 2022 6:29 UTC

19 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

The Many Faces of Infra-Beliefs

Diffractor6 Apr 2021 10:43 UTC

28 points

6 comments63 min readLW link

Getting Unstuck on Counterfactuals

Chris_Leong20 Jul 2022 5:31 UTC

7 points

1 comment2 min readLW link

My Current Take on Counterfactuals

abramdemski9 Apr 2021 17:51 UTC

53 points

57 comments25 min readLW link

Counterfactuals are Confusing because of an Ontological Shift

Chris_Leong5 Aug 2022 19:03 UTC

17 points

35 comments2 min readLW link

The Nature of Counterfactuals

Chris_Leong5 Jun 2021 9:18 UTC

15 points

18 comments4 min readLW link

Agency and the unreliable autonomous car

Alex Flint7 Jul 2021 14:58 UTC

29 points

24 comments10 min readLW link

Counterfactual Contracts

harsimony16 Sep 2021 15:20 UTC

10 points

4 comments9 min readLW link

(harsimony.wordpress.com)

Four factors that moderate the intensity of emotions

Ruby24 Nov 2018 20:40 UTC

57 points

11 comments8 min readLW link

Counterfactuals from ensembles of peers

David Johnston4 Jan 2022 7:01 UTC

3 points

4 comments7 min readLW link

QACI: question-answer counterfactual intervals

carado24 Oct 2022 13:08 UTC

20 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

(carado.moe)

Decisions: Ontologically Shifting to Determinism

Chris_Leong21 Dec 2022 12:41 UTC

8 points

11 comments6 min readLW link

Causality and determinism in social science—An investigation using Pearl’s causal ladder

tailcalled3 Jan 2022 17:51 UTC

12 points

10 comments9 min readLW link

Counterfactual trade

owencb9 Mar 2015 13:23 UTC

21 points

19 comments3 min readLW link

Counterfactual Mugging and Logical Uncertainty

Vladimir_Nesov5 Sep 2009 22:31 UTC

11 points

21 comments3 min readLW link

Counterfactuals: Smoking Lesion vs. Newcomb’s

Chris_Leong8 Dec 2019 21:02 UTC

9 points

24 comments3 min readLW link

Counterfactually uninfluenceable agents

Stuart_Armstrong2 Jun 2017 16:17 UTC

11 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Counterfactuals and reflective oracles

Nisan5 Sep 2018 8:54 UTC

9 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

Counterfactual Induction (Algorithm Sketch, Fixpoint proof)

Diffractor17 Dec 2019 5:04 UTC

5 points

2 comments7 min readLW link

[Question] Counterfactual Mugging: Why should you pay?

Chris_Leong17 Dec 2019 22:16 UTC

6 points

59 comments3 min readLW link

Counterfactual mugging: alien abduction edition

Emile28 Sep 2010 21:25 UTC

4 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactual Induction (Lemma 4)

Diffractor17 Dec 2019 5:05 UTC

4 points

0 comments7 min readLW link

Counterfactual do-what-I-mean

Stuart_Armstrong27 Oct 2016 13:54 UTC

5 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactual Mugging v. Subjective Probability

MBlume20 Jul 2009 16:31 UTC

4 points

32 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactuals on POMDP

Stuart_Armstrong2 Jun 2017 16:30 UTC

2 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Counterfactual self-defense

MrMind23 Nov 2012 10:15 UTC

2 points

9 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactual do-what-I-mean

Stuart_Armstrong27 Oct 2016 13:53 UTC

0 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

Logical Counterfactuals and Proposition graphs, Part 1

Donald Hobson22 Aug 2019 22:06 UTC

20 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Logical Counterfactuals are low-res

shminux15 Oct 2018 3:36 UTC

23 points

14 comments1 min readLW link

(donerkebabphilosophy.wordpress.com)

The Counterfactual Prisoner’s Dilemma

Chris_Leong21 Dec 2019 1:44 UTC

20 points

17 comments3 min readLW link

Logical Counterfactuals & the Cooperation Game

Chris_Leong14 Aug 2018 14:00 UTC

16 points

26 comments2 min readLW link

Logical Counterfactuals and Proposition graphs, Part 2

Donald Hobson31 Aug 2019 20:58 UTC

13 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

Can Counterfactuals Be True?

Eliezer Yudkowsky24 Jul 2008 4:40 UTC

29 points

47 comments4 min readLW link

A counterfactual and hypothetical note on AI safety design

Stuart_Armstrong11 Mar 2015 16:20 UTC

13 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Logical Counterfactuals and Proposition graphs, Part 3

Donald Hobson5 Sep 2019 15:03 UTC

6 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Extremely Counterfactual Mugging or: the gist of Transparent Newcomb

Bongo9 Feb 2011 15:20 UTC

11 points

79 comments1 min readLW link

Provability Counterfactuals vs Three Axioms of Galles and Pearl

IAFF-User-5230 Aug 2015 2:48 UTC

6 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(epsilonofdoom.blogspot.com)

Logical counterfactuals for random algorithms

Vanessa Kosoy6 Jan 2016 13:29 UTC

5 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

[LINK] Counterfactual Strategies

Strilanc17 Jun 2014 19:29 UTC

5 points

14 comments1 min readLW link

Logical Counterfactuals Consistent Under Self-Modification

abramdemski15 Dec 2015 6:38 UTC

3 points

2 comments8 min readLW link

Logical counterfactuals and differential privacy

Nisan4 Feb 2018 0:17 UTC

1 point

1 comment5 min readLW link

What makes counterfactuals comparable?

Chris_Leong24 Apr 2020 22:47 UTC

11 points

6 comments3 min readLW link

The odd counterfactuals of playing chicken

Benya_Fallenstein2 Feb 2015 7:15 UTC

6 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

Hazing as Counterfactual Mugging?

SilasBarta11 Oct 2010 14:17 UTC

5 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

Third-person counterfactuals

Benya_Fallenstein3 Feb 2015 1:13 UTC

4 points

4 comments6 min readLW link

The many counterfactuals of counterfactual mugging

Scott Garrabrant12 Apr 2016 20:04 UTC

2 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

Stabilizing logical counterfactuals by pseudorandomization

Vanessa Kosoy25 May 2016 12:05 UTC

1 point

2 comments8 min readLW link

Un-manipulable counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong12 Feb 2015 19:51 UTC

1 point

5 comments1 min readLW link

Orthogonality: action counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong17 Feb 2015 21:04 UTC

0 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Newcomblike problem: Counterfactual Informant

Clippy12 Apr 2012 20:25 UTC

−3 points

24 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Would solving logical counterfactuals solve anthropics?

Chris_Leong5 Apr 2019 11:08 UTC

20 points

52 comments1 min readLW link

Optimal and Causal Counterfactual Worlds

Scott Garrabrant12 May 2015 3:16 UTC

14 points

4 comments3 min readLW link

Sleeping Beauty gets counterfactually mugged

Stuart_Armstrong26 Mar 2009 11:44 UTC

4 points

34 comments2 min readLW link

Causal graphs and counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong30 Aug 2016 16:12 UTC

7 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Transitive negotiations with counterfactual agents

Scott Garrabrant20 Oct 2016 23:27 UTC

4 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Agents detecting agents: counterfactual versus influence

Stuart_Armstrong18 Sep 2015 16:17 UTC

5 points

4 comments7 min readLW link

Humans get different counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong23 Mar 2015 14:54 UTC

4 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Causal graphs and counterfactuals

Stuart_Armstrong30 Aug 2016 16:06 UTC

0 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

The Curse Of The Counterfactual

pjeby1 Nov 2019 18:34 UTC

117 points

34 comments19 min readLW link 1 review

Two Alternatives to Logical Counterfactuals

jessicata1 Apr 2020 9:48 UTC

38 points

61 comments5 min readLW link

(unstableontology.com)

Addressing three problems with counterfactual corrigibility: bad bets, defending against backstops, and overconfidence.

RyanCarey21 Oct 2018 12:03 UTC

23 points

1 comment6 min readLW link

Standard ML Oracles vs Counterfactual ones

Stuart_Armstrong10 Oct 2018 20:01 UTC

18 points

5 comments6 min readLW link

An environment for studying counterfactuals

Nisan11 Jul 2018 0:14 UTC

15 points

6 comments3 min readLW link

On the Role of Counterfactuals in Learning

Max Kanwal11 Jul 2018 2:45 UTC

11 points

2 comments3 min readLW link

Does TDT pay in Counterfactual Mugging?

Bongo29 Nov 2010 21:31 UTC

4 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

You have just been Counterfactually Mugged!

CronoDAS19 Aug 2009 22:24 UTC

7 points

25 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Decisions with Non-Logical Counterfactuals: request for input

reavowed24 Oct 2019 17:23 UTC

3 points

11 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What are some concrete problems about logical counterfactuals?

Chris_Leong16 Dec 2018 10:20 UTC

25 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

I Was Not Almost Wrong But I Was Almost Right: Close-Call Counterfactuals and Bias

Kaj_Sotala8 Mar 2012 5:39 UTC

86 points

40 comments9 min readLW link

Divergence on Evidence Due to Differing Priors—A Political Case Study

Davidmanheim16 Sep 2019 11:01 UTC

27 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

A useful level distinction

Charlie Steiner24 Feb 2018 6:39 UTC

8 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

JFK was not assassinated: prior probability zero events

Stuart_Armstrong27 Apr 2016 11:47 UTC

37 points

38 comments3 min readLW link

Motivating a Semantics of Logical Counterfactuals

Sam_A_Barnett22 Sep 2017 1:10 UTC

22 points

3 comments2 min readLW link

Open Problems Regarding Counterfactuals: An Introduction For Beginners

Diffractor18 Jul 2017 2:21 UTC

21 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

(www.overleaf.com)

UDT might not pay a Counterfactual Mugger

winwonce21 Nov 2020 23:27 UTC

5 points

18 comments2 min readLW link

Counterfactual Planning in AGI Systems

Koen.Holtman3 Feb 2021 13:54 UTC

10 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Graphical World Models, Counterfactuals, and Machine Learning Agents

Koen.Holtman17 Feb 2021 11:07 UTC

6 points

2 comments10 min readLW link

Creating AGI Safety Interlocks

Koen.Holtman5 Feb 2021 12:01 UTC

7 points

4 comments8 min readLW link

Safely controlling the AGI agent reward function

Koen.Holtman17 Feb 2021 14:47 UTC

7 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

What is a Counterfactual: An Elementary Introduction to the Causal Hierarchy

Darmani2 Jan 2022 3:46 UTC

11 points

2 comments5 min readLW link

Initial Thoughts on Dissolving “Couldness”

DragonGod22 Sep 2022 21:23 UTC

6 points

1 comment3 min readLW link

[Sketch] Validity Criterion for Logical Counterfactuals

DragonGod11 Oct 2022 13:31 UTC

6 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Against the normative realist’s wager

Joe Carlsmith13 Oct 2022 16:35 UTC

16 points

9 comments23 min readLW link

Timeless Control

Eliezer Yudkowsky7 Jun 2008 5:16 UTC

39 points

69 comments9 min readLW link

Why are counterfactuals elusive?

Martín Soto3 Mar 2023 20:13 UTC

18 points

6 comments2 min readLW link

Timeless Decision Theory and Meta-Circular Decision Theory

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Aug 2009 22:07 UTC

40 points

37 comments10 min readLW link

Counterfactuals, thick and thin

Nisan31 Jul 2018 15:43 UTC

28 points

11 comments2 min readLW link

Deconfusing Logical Counterfactuals

Chris_Leong30 Jan 2019 15:13 UTC

27 points

16 comments11 min readLW link

Conditioning, Counterfactuals, Exploration, and Gears

Diffractor10 Jul 2018 22:11 UTC

28 points

1 comment5 min readLW link

Counterfactual Mugging Poker Game

Scott Garrabrant13 Jun 2018 23:34 UTC

99 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactual Mugging

Vladimir_Nesov19 Mar 2009 6:08 UTC

76 points

296 comments2 min readLW link

Counterfactual Oracles = online supervised learning with random selection of training episodes

Wei_Dai10 Sep 2019 8:29 UTC

48 points

26 comments3 min readLW link

Counterfactual outcome state transition parameters

Anders_H27 Jul 2018 21:13 UTC

37 points

1 comment6 min readLW link

Counterfactual resiliency test for non-causal models

Stuart_Armstrong30 Aug 2012 17:30 UTC

34 points

78 comments7 min readLW link

Counterfactuals versus the laws of physics

Stuart_Armstrong18 Feb 2020 13:21 UTC

16 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactuals are an Answer, Not a Question

Chris_Leong3 Sep 2019 15:36 UTC

14 points

6 comments4 min readLW link

Counterfactuals for Perfect Predictors

Chris_Leong6 Aug 2018 12:24 UTC

12 points

17 comments6 min readLW link

Counterfactual Induction

Diffractor17 Dec 2019 5:03 UTC

22 points

7 comments6 min readLW link

Counterfactual Reprogramming Decision Theory

lukeprog10 Sep 2012 1:35 UTC

18 points

8 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactual Calculation and Observational Knowledge

Vladimir_Nesov31 Jan 2011 16:28 UTC

20 points

188 comments1 min readLW link

Counterfactuals as a matter of Social Convention

Chris_Leong30 Nov 2019 10:35 UTC

10 points

4 comments2 min readLW link

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