Consider that “if AGI is very near” probably means that it’s already happened (or, equivalently, that we are past the point of no return) on Copernican grounds, since the odds of living in a very special moment where the timelines are short but it’s not too late yet are very low. Not seeing an obvious AGI around likely means that either it’s not very near, or that the take-off is slow, not fast.
Ironically, it’s not Roko’s basilisk that is an infohazard, it’s the “AGI go foom!” idea that is.
Huh, what an interesting observation! I wonder if there are more examples of something like that.