Haha, I get the point you’re making. Very well done, too.
But, hm… real scenarios are, or should be, more tightly interlinked than fictional scenarios, and it could be that international-relations scenarios are so constrained that that prediction might not be ridiculous.
I mean, I’d expect the responses of countries to a nuclear war between Iran and Israel to be a lot more constrained / predictable than responses to most international incidents.
Haha, I get the point you’re making. Very well done, too.
But, hm… real scenarios are, or should be, more tightly interlinked than fictional scenarios, and it could be that international-relations scenarios are so constrained that that prediction might not be ridiculous. I mean, I’d expect the responses of countries to a nuclear war between Iran and Israel to be a lot more constrained / predictable than responses to most international incidents.
Ah, but how much more predictable? The devil is in the numbers.
And either way, several events in this particular sequence are still bizarre.