FiftyTwo

Karma: 4,708

FiftyTwo 10 Nov 2022 0:41 UTC
2 points
on: Kelly Bet on Everything
Saying that people would be better off taking more risks under a particular model elides the question of why they don’t take those risks to begin with, and how we can change that. If its desirable to do so.
The psychological impact of a loss of x is generally higher than that of a corresponding gain. So if I know I will feel worse from losing $10 than I will feel good from gaining $100, then its entirely rational in my utility function to not take a ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ bet between those two outcomes. Maybe I would be better off overall if I didn’t over weight losses, but utility functions aren’t easily rewritable by humans. The closest you could come is some kind of exposure therapy to losses.

FiftyTwo 10 Aug 2022 22:42 UTC
3 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: jaspax’s comment on: Proposal: Consider not using distance-direction-dimension words in abstract discussions
Also, we have a huge amount of mental architecture devoted to understanding and remembering spatial relationships of objects (for obvious evolutionary reasons). Using that as a metaphor for purely abstract things allows us to take advantage of that mental architecture to make other tasks easier.
A very structured version of this would be something like a memory palace where you assign ideas to specific locations in a place, but I think we are doing the same thing often when we talk about ideas in spatial relationships, and build loose mental models of them as existing in spatial relationship to one another (or at least I do).

FiftyTwo 30 Jul 2022 22:49 UTC
4 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Valentine’s comment on: ITT-passing and civility are good; “charity” is bad; steelmanning is niche
I think the core thing here is same-sidedness.
The converse of this is that the maximally charitable approach can be harmful when the interlocutor is fundamentally not on the same side as you, in trying to honestly discuss a topic and arrive at truth. I’ve seen people tie themselves in knots when trying to apply the principle of charity, when the most parsimonious explanation is that the other side is not engaging in good faith, and shouldn’t be treated as such.
It’s taken me a long time to internalise this, because my instinct is to take what people say at face value. But its important to remember that sometimes there isn’t anything complex or nuanced going on, people can just lie.

FiftyTwo 1 Jul 2022 10:05 UTC
24 points
on: CFAR Handbook: Introduction
Thanks. This is the kind of content I originally came to LW for a decade ago, but seems to have become less popular

FiftyTwo 12 Apr 2022 16:07 UTC
2 points
on: Ideal governance (for companies, countries and more)
You might find Origins Of Political Order interesting. Emphasis on how the principle agent problem is one of the central issues of governance and how without strong mechanisms systems tend to descend into corruption

FiftyTwo 10 Apr 2022 18:49 UTC
2 points
on: Playing with DALL·E 2
Is there any way of reverse engineering from these pictures what existing images were used to generate them? Would be interesting to see how much similarity there is.

FiftyTwo 9 Apr 2022 22:38 UTC
14 points
in reply to: Not Relevant’s comment on: It’s time for EA leadership to pull the fast-takeoff fire alarm.
So we just need to get two superpowers who currently feel they are in a zero sum competition with each other to stop trying to advance in an area that gives them a potentially infinite advantage? Seems a very classic case of the kind of coordination problems that are difficult to solve, with high rewards for defecting.

We have, partially managed to do this for nuclear and biological weapons. But only with a massive oversight infrastructure that doesn’t exist for AI. And relying on physical evidence and materials control that doesn’t exist for AI. It’s not impossible, but it would require a similar level of concerted international effort that was used for nuclear weapons. Which took a long time, so possibly doesn’t fit with your short timeline

FiftyTwo 8 Apr 2022 20:07 UTC
7 points
on: Dr Fauci as Machiavellian Boddhisattva
A more charitable interpretation of the same evidence would be that as a public health professional Dr Fauci has a lot of experience with the difficulties of communicating complex and messages and the political tradeoffs that are necessary for effective action. And has judged based on that experience what is most effective to say. Do you have data he doesn’t? Or a reason to think his experience in his speciality is inapplicable?

FiftyTwo 8 Apr 2022 19:23 UTC
4 points
in reply to: Not Relevant’s comment on: It’s time for EA leadership to pull the fast-takeoff fire alarm.

Earth does have the global infrastructure

It does? What do you mean? The only thing I can think of is the UN, and recent events don’t make it very likely they’d engage in coordinated action on anything.

FiftyTwo 8 Apr 2022 19:21 UTC
43 points
on: It’s time for EA leadership to pull the fast-takeoff fire alarm.

It should not take long, given these pieces and a moderate amount of iteration, to create an agentic system capable of long-term decision-making

That is, to put it mildly, a pretty strong claim, and one I don’t think the rest of your post really justifies. Without which it’s still just listing a theoretical thing to worry about

FiftyTwo 19 Mar 2022 17:52 UTC
6 points
on: The Long Long Covid Post
If you’re an otherwise healthy young person who has tested positive, what’s the best thing you can do to prevent getting long covid? Seems like there’s research saying that exercising too early can make it worse, but other articles saying good things about exercise, and I’m not sure how to evaluate it.

FiftyTwo 12 Mar 2022 18:18 UTC
17 points
in reply to: Yitz’s comment on: Eight Short Studies On Excuses
My greatest legacy

FiftyTwo 25 Jan 2022 23:56 UTC
3 points
on: What should a student who is already a decent programmer do over the summer?
Good programmers who are a pain to work with are much less successful than average programmers who are pleasant to work with. Increasing technical competency has diminishing returns. So I’d focus on doing things that gets you more experience of working with people, the business development internship may do that depending on the details. Also things like working in a bar or restaurant.
Note that this is distinct from the standard advice on developing social skills. Being good at talking to strangers and going to parties is good. But working well with people in an employment context is different, its much more about maintaining working relationships with people you may not especially like, than forming deep connections.

FiftyTwo 25 Jan 2022 23:41 UTC
8 points
on: An Outside View on Less Wrong’s Advice
I’d be curious what you think now after many years to see the effects of things in practice

FiftyTwo 17 Oct 2021 9:41 UTC
2 points
on: London, UK – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2021
Great to see everyone. Is there somewhere we can sign up for future events in London?

FiftyTwo 8 Apr 2021 23:25 UTC
3 points
in reply to: bfinn’s comment on: Monastery and Throne
Characterising the reaction to Cummings as about being about people overreacting to a small violation of the rules is misleading. The issue wasn’t the initial rule violation, it was that the initial denial and lack of even token punishment was symbolic of a wider issue in the Johnson government with corruption and cronyism. Caring about hypocrisy and corruption among leaders is entirely rational as it is indicative of how they will make other decisions in the future.

FiftyTwo 8 Apr 2021 18:26 UTC
5 points
in reply to: Olivier Faure’s comment on: I’m from a parallel Earth with much higher coordination: AMA
Yeah I like a lot of EY’s stuff (otherwise I wouldn’t be here) but he does have a habit of treating his own preferences as universal, or failing to appreciate when there might be good reasons that the seemingly obvious solution doesn’t work, as is common with people commenting on areas outside their expertise

FiftyTwo 20 Mar 2021 15:34 UTC
2 points
on: Covid 3/18: An Expected Quantity of Blood Clots
I think its unfair to say “everyone in Europe lost their minds” when the EU health agency was very loudly saying things were fine. It would be more accurate to say a couple of specific countries medical regulators and some politicians went crazy.
Obviously that’s still bad, but when looking at systemic failures like this it is important to identify the actual source of the problem. Which seem to be due to idiosyncratic political issues in teh countries involved. Blaming the wrong people undermines the ones who have been doing a good job

FiftyTwo 2 Dec 2017 6:24 UTC
4 points
in reply to: jimmy’s comment on: Hero Licensing
How would you differentiate this from someone just asking for additional evidence because they think you’ve made a false statement? E.g. If Alice tells Bob the earth is flat, its reasonable for him to ask for additional evidence, and doing so doesn’t imply he’s playing status games. But could equally reasonably be replied to by saying that Bob is only disagreeing because he thinks Alice isn’t high status enough to make cosmological claims.

FiftyTwo 2 Dec 2017 6:19 UTC
8 points
in reply to: sarahconstantin’s comment on: Hero Licensing
Like, who has the authority to say “thou shalt not try things that might fail”? As long as you’re not conning anybody out of resources, your failure doesn’t pick anybody else’s pocket.
What about altruistic reasons for asking? If my friend is planning to quit their job and become a famous musician I would probably attempt strongly to dissuade them, even if it wouldn’t directly affect me.
If however I thought they were likely to succeed (e.g. have made money selling music on bandcamp and performing, in talks with a record company, etc.) I probably wouldn’t dissuade them.