The U.S. Presidential candidate who spends the most money on his campaign will be elected.
The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate.
Why is this downvoted? Too obvious?
Hard to judge, thanks to the Citizens case, and I can’t help but wonder if it’s near tautology—the more popular candidate wins, and also raises the most.
It’s not a tautology because they are not logically equivalent (heh), but a spurious correlation, yes.
I was going to assign this prediction 50%, then I remembered the effect gwern mentioned here.
The U.S. Presidential candidate who spends the most money on his campaign will be elected.
The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate.
Why is this downvoted? Too obvious?
Hard to judge, thanks to the Citizens case, and I can’t help but wonder if it’s near tautology—the more popular candidate wins, and also raises the most.
It’s not a tautology because they are not logically equivalent (heh), but a spurious correlation, yes.
I was going to assign this prediction 50%, then I remembered the effect gwern mentioned here.