My girlfriend knows and is highly amused at my pessimism.
My logic is that I have never actually had a relationship that went much beyond the six-month mark, and while there are all kinds of factors that mean that this one is different and will stand the test of time, all of my other relationships also had all kinds of factors that meant this one is different and will stand the test of time.
The prediction is only 60%, however, since I might have actually gotten better at relationships since the last go-round. And because my girlfriend is really fucking awesome. :)
I don’t believe that that quite applies to my situation. I’m not predicting whether I’ll choose right now to break up with my girlfriend (99.999% certainty I won’t); I’m predicting whether at some point in the next year one of the future Ozymandiases, subtly different from me, will find zirself in a state in which zie wants to break up with zir girlfriend. I have already made up my mind to not break up; I’m predicting how likely I am to change my mind.
I sincerely hope your girlfriend does not read this site, or at least doesn’t know your username.
My girlfriend knows and is highly amused at my pessimism.
My logic is that I have never actually had a relationship that went much beyond the six-month mark, and while there are all kinds of factors that mean that this one is different and will stand the test of time, all of my other relationships also had all kinds of factors that meant this one is different and will stand the test of time.
The prediction is only 60%, however, since I might have actually gotten better at relationships since the last go-round. And because my girlfriend is really fucking awesome. :)
You may be interested in this http://lesswrong.com/lw/jx/we_change_our_minds_less_often_than_we_think .
I don’t believe that that quite applies to my situation. I’m not predicting whether I’ll choose right now to break up with my girlfriend (99.999% certainty I won’t); I’m predicting whether at some point in the next year one of the future Ozymandiases, subtly different from me, will find zirself in a state in which zie wants to break up with zir girlfriend. I have already made up my mind to not break up; I’m predicting how likely I am to change my mind.
Are you not certain of your future self’s gender, or are you using Dr Dan Streetmentioner’s grammar for time travelers?
While this is amusing, Ozy’s pronoun is already “zie”. You may want to look up “gender binary”.
Can you get her prediction? Then possibly revise the prediction in light of new information from an informed party.
Well, you see, that 60% already factors in that possibility.
Are you assuming that ozy’s girlfriend is unaware of this prediction? If so, why?