Could someone please start a bright home lighting company?

Link post

Ele­va­tor pitch: Bring enough light to simu­late daylight into your home and office.

This idea has been shared in Less Wrong cir­cles for a cou­ple years. Yud­kowsky wrote Inad­e­quate Equil­ibria in 2017 where he and his wife in­vented the idea, and Rae­mon wrote a play­book in 2018 for how to do it your­self. Now I and at least two other friends are try­ing to build some­thing similar, and I sus­pect there’s a big­ger-than-it-looks mar­ket op­por­tu­nity here be­cause it’s one of those things that a lot of peo­ple would prob­a­bly want, if they knew it ex­isted and could ex­pe­rience it. And it’s only re­cently be­come cheap enough to ex­e­cute well.

Coelux makes a high-end ar­tifi­cial skylight which cer­tainly looks awe­some, but it costs up­wards of $30k and also takes a lot of head­room in the ceiling. Can we do bet­ter for cheaper?

Bright­ness from first principles

First let’s clear up some defi­ni­tions:

  • Watts is a mea­sure of power con­sump­tion, not bright­ness.

    • “Watt equiv­a­lent” bright­ness is usu­ally listed for LED bulbs, at least for the stan­dard house­hold bulb form fac­tor. You should gen­er­ally ig­nore this (in­stead, just look at the lu­mens rat­ing), be­cause it is con­fus­ing. Nor­mally “watt equiv­a­lent” is com­puted by di­vid­ing lu­mens by 15 or so. (bulb man­u­fac­tur­ers like to make LED bulbs that are easy to com­pare, by hav­ing similar bright­ness to the in­can­des­cents they re­place, hence “watt equiv­a­lent”)

  • Lu­mens out­put is a mea­sure­ment of an in­di­vi­d­ual bulb, but says noth­ing about the dis­tri­bu­tion of those rays of light. For that you want to be do­ing math to es­ti­mate lux.

  • “Lux”, or “lu­mi­nous flux”, is the mea­sure­ment of how bright light is on a cer­tain sur­face (such as a wall or your face). Lux is mea­sured in lu­mens per square me­ter. Usu­ally, your end goal when de­sign­ing light­ing is to cre­ate a cer­tain amount of lux.

    • Direct sun­light shines 100k lux (source for these on Wikipe­dia)

    • Full daylight (in­di­rect) is more than 10k lux

    • An over­cast day or bright TV stu­dio light­ing is 1000 lux

    • In­door office light­ing is typ­i­cally 500

    • In­door liv­ing room at night might be only 50

Side note: This scale sur­prises me greatly! We use­fully make use of vi­sion with four or more or­ders of mag­ni­tude differ­ences in lux within a sin­gle day. Our hu­man vi­sion hard­ware is do­ing a lot of work to make the world look rea­son­able within these vast differ­ences of amount of light. Re­gard­less, this post is about get­ting a lot of lux. I hy­poth­e­size that lux is as­so­ci­ated with both hap­piness and pro­duc­tivity, and dur­ing the “dark sea­son” when we don’t get as much lux from the sun, I’m look­ing to get some from ar­tifi­cial lights.

If you put a sin­gle 1000-lu­men (66-watt-equiv­a­lent) om­ni­di­rec­tional bulb in the cen­ter of a spher­i­cal room of 2m ra­dius (which ap­prox­i­mates a 12′ square bed­room), the lux at the ra­dius of the sphere is 50. So now we can get a sense of the scope of the prob­lem. When doc­tors say you should be get­ting 10,000 lux for 30 min­utes a day, the de­faults for home light­ing are two or­ders of mag­ni­tude off.

  • Rae­mon’s bulbs are “100W equiv­a­lent” which is ~1500 lu­mens per bulb. So he’s got 36k lu­mens. If we treat this as a point source and ex­pect that Rae­mon’s head is 2m away from the bulbs, then he’s get­ting 1800 lux, which is twice the “TV stu­dio” light­ing and seems pretty re­spectable. I haven’t ac­counted for re­flected light from the ceiling ei­ther, so re­al­ity might be bet­ter than this, but I doubt it changes the calcu­la­tion by more than a fac­tor of 2 -- but I don’t have a ro­bust way of es­ti­mat­ing am­bi­ent light, so ideas are wel­come.

  • David Chap­man’s plan uses three 20k-lu­men LED light bars for offroad SUV driv­ing, for a to­tal of 60k lu­mens. But be­cause the light bars aim the light at a rel­a­tively fo­cused point on the floor, David es­ti­mates that most of that light is be­ing de­liv­ered to a roughly 6-square-me­ter workspace for a to­tal of 10k lux. The pho­tos he shared of his workspace seem to sup­port this es­ti­mate.

Other im­por­tant fac­tors be­sides brightness

Color tem­per­a­ture seems im­por­tant to well-be­ing. Color tem­per­a­ture is mea­sured in kelv­ins with refer­ence to black-body ra­di­a­tion, but you can think of it as, on the spec­trum from “warm white” to “cool white”, what do you pre­fer? Rae­mon’s plan uses an even split be­tween 2700K and 5000K bulbs. 2700K is quite yel­low-y, 5000 is nearly pure white. In my ex­per­i­men­ta­tion I dis­cov­ered that I liked closer to 5000 in the morn­ings and closer to 2700 in evenings.

And what about light dis­tri­bu­tion? Large “pan­els” of bright light would seem the clos­est to daylight in form-fac­tor. Real win­dows are brighter near the top, and it is con­sid­ered dra­matic and un­nat­u­ral to have bright light­ing com­ing from the ground. Also, sin­gle bright point sources are painful to look at and can seem harsh. I think there’s a lot of flex­i­bil­ity here, but I think my per­sonal ideal light would be a large, win­dow-sized panel of light mounted on the ceiling or high on the wall.

Also, color ac­cu­racy: LEDs are no­to­ri­ously nar­row spec­trum by de­fault; man­u­fac­tur­ers have to do work to make their LEDs look more like in­can­des­cent bulbs in how they light up ob­jects of differ­ent col­ors. Check for a mea­sure called Color Ren­der­ing In­dex, or CRI, in product de­scrip­tions. 100 is con­sid­ered perfect color ren­der­ing, and any­thing less than 80 looks in­creas­ingly awful as you go down. The differ­ence be­tween CRI 80 and 90 is definitely no­tice­able to some peo­ple. I haven’t blind tested my­self, and definitely might be imag­in­ing it, but I feel like there was some kind of no­tice­able up­grade of the “co­z­i­ness” or “warmth” in my room when up­grad­ing from CRI 80 to CRI 95 bulbs.

Dimma­bil­ity? (Are you kid­ding? We want bright­ness, not dim­ness!) Okay, fine, if you in­sist. Most high-end LED bulbs seem dimmable to­day, so I hope this is not an oner­ous re­quire­ment.

Last thing I can think of is flicker. I have only seen flicker as a ma­jor prob­lem with re­ally low-end bulbs, but I can eas­ily see and be an­noyed by 60hz flicker out of the cor­ner of my eye. Cheap Christ­mas LED light strings have su­per bad flicker, but it seems like man­u­fac­tur­ers of nicer LEDs to­day have caught on, be­cause I haven’t had any flicker prob­lems with LED bulbs in years.

Okay, so to sum­ma­rize: I want an all-in-one “light panel” that pro­duces at least 20000 lu­mens and can be mounted to a wall or ceiling, with no no­tice­able flicker, good CRI, and ad­justable (per­haps au­to­mat­i­cally ad­just­ing) color tem­per­a­ture through­out the day.

A red­di­tor made a fake win­dow for their base­ment which is quite im­pres­sive for un­der $200. This is definitely along the axis I am imag­in­ing.

I haven’t men­tioned op­er­at­ing cost. Full-spec­trum LEDs seem to out­put about 75 lu­mens per watt, so if our panel is 20k lu­mens then we should ex­pect our panel to draw 266 watts. This seems rea­son­able to me. If you leave it on 8 hours a day, you’re go­ing to use 25 cents per day in elec­tric­ity (at $.12 per kWh).

Mar­ket­ing and Costs

What do you think peo­ple will pay for the product? I have already put 6+ hours into re­search­ing this and don’t have a satis­fac­tory solu­tion yet. I would prob­a­bly pay at least $400 to get that time back, if the re­sult satis­fied all my re­quire­ments; I ex­pect to put in quite a bit more time, so I think I could prob­a­bly be con­vinced to pay north of $1000 for a re­ally good product. Hard to say what oth­ers would pay, but I wouldn’t be sur­prised if you could build a good product in the $400-1200 range that would be quite pop­u­lar.

What about costs? To­day, Home De­pot sells Cree 90-CRI, 815-lu­men bulbs on their web­site for $1.93 per bulb for a cost of $2.37 per 1000 lu­mens. This is the cheap­est I’ve seen high qual­ity bulbs. (The higher lu­men bulbs are an­noy­ingly quite a bit more ex­pen­sive). To get 36k lu­mens at this price costs un­der $100 re­tail. Pre­sum­ably there are cool­ing con­sid­er­a­tions when pack­ing LEDs close to­gether but those seem solv­able if you’re do­ing the “panel” form fac­tor. There are other costs I’m sure, but it seems like the LEDs and driver are likely to dom­i­nate most of the costs. Th­ese are dimmable but not color tem­per­a­ture ad­justable.

Yuji LEDs sells 2700K-6500K dimmable LED strips, also with 95+ CRI, at $100 for 6250 lu­mens (so a cost of $16 per 1000 lu­mens). This is 7x more ex­pen­sive per lu­men, but know­ing that it ex­ists is re­ally helpful.

Pro­mo­tion and Distribution

Kick­starter is the ob­vi­ous idea for get­ting this idea out there. I would also recom­mend start­ing a sub­red­dit (if it doesn’t ex­ist; I haven’t checked yet) for do-it-your­selfers who want to build or buy re­ally bright light­ing sys­tems for their homes, as I think there is prob­a­bly enough sus­tained in­ter­est in such a topic for it to ex­ist.

You can also try to get press. The idea of “in­door light as bright as daylight” is prob­a­bly some­what viral so I’d hope you can get peo­ple to write about you. Coelux got a bunch of press a few years ago do­ing this ex­act thing, but their product is so ex­pen­sive that they don’t even list their price on their web­site, but in ar­ti­cles about Coelux you can see peo­ple com­ment­ing that they wish they could af­ford one.

I do think the idea needs to be spread more. Most peo­ple don’t know this is pos­si­ble, so there’s a lot of work you’ll be do­ing to just ex­plain that such a thing is pos­si­ble and healthy.

Com­pe­ti­tion?

I don’t think there’s any rele­vant com­pe­ti­tion out there to­day. Coelux is su­per high end. The com­pe­ti­tion is do-it-your­selfers, but this mar­ket is far big­ger than the num­ber of peo­ple who are ex­cited to do-it-them­self.

Some have men­tioned “high bay” lights, which are de­signed to be mounted high in ware­houses and such, and throw a light cone a long dis­tance to the floor. I am ex­cited to try this and I will prob­a­bly try it next, but I am not su­per op­ti­mistic about it be­cause I ex­pect it to be quite harsh. This is the one that Yuji sells, but you can find cheaper and pre­sum­ably lower-qual­ity ones on Ama­zon.

Part of my mo­ti­va­tion for writ­ing this blog post is to source ideas for other things that ex­ist that could fill this niche. Com­ment here if you solved this prob­lem in a way I haven’t de­scribed! I’ll up­date this post with ideas. If you start this com­pany, also email me and I’ll buy one and try your product and prob­a­bly write about it :)

Build­ing a Sus­tain­able Business

If you put a bunch of re­search into de­sign­ing a re­ally great product and it suc­ceeds but gets effec­tively copied by low-cost clones, you’ll be sad. I am not sure how to defend this, and I think it is prob­a­bly the weak­est point of this busi­ness model; but it is a weak­ness that many hard­ware com­pa­nies share, and a lot of them still carve out a niche. One idea would be to build up your product’s brand­ing and rep­u­ta­tion, by ex­plain­ing why low-cost clones suck in var­i­ous ways. Another is just to give re­ally good ser­vice. Lastly, if you avoid man­u­fac­tur­ing things in China, maybe Chi­nese clone com­pa­nies won’t copy your tech­nol­ogy as quickly.