Programmer.
MinusGix
Karma: 296
This is a messy reply but I already rewrote it 2.5 times, haha. I do think there’s a, not quite conflation, but a meaningful social and practical distinction to be made between “universal metaphysics” and “identity metaphysics”. The former requires stronger arguments, but the latter is generally much weaker. I don’t believe FDT requires the former, but that it serves as good intuition pumps. For the latter, I think there’s more legitimate ground to dispute there, but I still think many disputes are confusions. Such as “I believe in free will, so I don’t believe in perfect predictors”, wherein the confusion is presuming we need perfect predictors to justify FDT, and that all you need there is some decent amount of prediction of decisions which is much weaker and much more commonly believed to be possible even if perhaps not physically feasible. Similarly, FDT is much easier to conceptualize with more computationalist theory of identity/mind, but is mostly not required; yet it does lead to pushback due to considering algorithms more primitively.
I also think I disagree with your son of CDT. In justification for FDT, sure everyday commitments aren’t necessarily FDT, but are often used in terms of “we use predictions of other people’s actions to decide what actions to take” which is very much in spirit of FDT and closer than how people conceptualize CDT or commitments. Though there’s of course some problems that feel more natural in either, and some in neither even if related (ex: virtues). But I don’t think this is central beyond pushing people away from typical naive CDT.
I generally avoided Bentham’s posts because I’ve seen him argue against FDT some years ago and on X he doesn’t seem to have gotten substantially better so it never felt worthwhile (though I guess I got convinced to argue against his recent post on SSA implying theism...) But, looking at the top comments, it is pretty direct. Mark saying “It is fine to give the wrong answer in a probabilistic sense” which is explicitly about the mechanics and justification for FDT. Vaniver is talking about concrete justifications for/against concrete payoffs. Etc. I don’t think this is dominantly semantics. Sure, it isn’t metaphysics, but generally it isn’t believed metaphysics is the problem. I think you’re over interpreting by your issue with lack of metaphysics to think most of it is missing the point.
Separately, the definition of “rationality” does matter. If you defined rationality as CDT-rational (as is often implicit in decision theory texts) then FDT will be worse by that definition. If you’re just saying “use rationality for near-term naive optimal decision making” as you do in your commitment theory post, then we can do that, but I also think it is an active distortion of what humans mean by rational in order to waffle between “well, it doesn’t matter, we’re just making ourselves be irrational to get more utility”. That is, why add more epicycles with commitment theory over decision theory? Why not just be exact with what is being constructed? Collapse these layers and extract The Right Answer, and then move on to studying bounded agents, embedded agents, etc. to make our understanding of the nature of decisions ever more complete. (That is, the semantics matter because words mean something, and also because they matter to interlocutors, if they consider that a relevant “resolution” of the problem at hand rather than a minor fiddly bit to ignore)
I dispute needing any notable metaphysics. Metaphysics for decision theory are what people often move to as intuition pumps and then think that is where their confusion lies (“of course I can’t change the past!”). Part of the reason we’ve moved away from that, is yes that people experienced argue about it less, but also because it isn’t needed as much.
Probability theory is distinct from the Many Worlds Interpretation or other branching universes, as probability theory of beliefs is epistemic, while MWI is an intended to be literal physical interpretation. There’s a linking here but they aren’t the same thing. Possible worlds and branches are a useful intuition and mental model but eventually you move to Probability theory as a thing in of itself. There are people who are confused by probability theory and ask whether we actually think this deterministic thing is random, or whether these events that can’t be ran multiple times can meaningfully be assigned a probability, but these are confusions about Probability-belief as a thing with a nature in of itself.
Similarly, CDT, we do not ask whether CDT considers counterpossibles as real. CDT, in a deterministic universe, has a definite answer as to what actions it takes by how it cuts up the graph, but it is yet acting like it can vary its decision! CDT is not endorsing platonism just because it has causal graphs. CDT makes realities impossible by its very action, that is what taking an action “does”, choosing a possibility by virtue of how your decision procedure ranks actions.
Of course, this leads directly into your footnote 5.
Okay, sure, but they don’t imagine that they can make their own reality impossible—only FDT does that (academic decision theories only imagine inconsistencies insofar as they can actually make them consistent after all, by choosing that option). That, to me, is a distinct stance—a much more metaphysical one. It doesn’t make sense in a normal worldview.
CDT in a deterministic world evaluates possible-worlds wherein you take an act you won’t take, and then crosses them out by choosing an action. FDT evaluates possible-worlds that are inconsistent with your experience, some of which are in the past, and then crosses them out by choosing your policy. The same sort of removal occurs, just in different locations. Sure, FDT crosses out worlds that contain your current position, but that isn’t a question of ontology. It is a question of if we should evaluate from an indexical or an updateless prior. There’s the question of whether we’re considering an action as first and foremost the thing to consider rational or not, or whether we want to consider the policy as more primary. Aggressive precommittment like that which results in Son-of-CDT sure looks like trying to decide policy ahead of time via constraining yourself, so why not just decide policy?
We can go poke at extensive form game theory. A strategy there is defined everywhere, and which path is the answer (and thus made real) is determined by what your strategy would do on other paths. An agent that finds itself at some impossible node has various ways of thinking about their scenario, such as trembling hand arguments, belief revision, and backward induction. Though this is more third-person, but, well, that is important.
CDT holds its action node loose, as if it is uncertain, and then via that consideration is “making” those other outcomes inconsistent. That’s what taking an action does, and was the point of Soares’ Decisions are for making bad outcomes inconsistent. But, similar to “changing the past” you aren’t really altering those other outcomes in some weird esoteric branch interference, rather you’re influencing outcomes that decide which realities you experience towards ones with higher utility. This isn’t metaphysics, even if it is a mental reframing, which is my view of the supermajority of FDT. The confusions are presuming the interpretation/intuition-generators/etc are “real” rather than useful. FDT, then, is an alternative notion of where to cut the causal graph and then we see that this generates better results than typical CDT.
Pseudo simulation, footnote 5.
Your initial paragraph supposes a simple decision function, and thus Omega only needs to simulate a fragment of your mind that is that function. Then your second paragraph talks about blackmail and having access to sensory experience and that you thus have to be agnostic about experiencing.
Firstly, an FDT agent can have very high credence that it is actually experiencing. However, what it conditions on for which policy to follow avoids that. Those are distinct epistemic vs decision-algorithm, the decision-algorithm can explicitly preclude certain epistemic elements from influencing it while still “believing truthfully”. This is very similar to how a smart CDT agent (without time to commit) in a prisoner’s dilemma against another CDT agent knows that it will output the same answer as the other agent, but how it arranges the causal graph for decision making is what decides the outcome.
Secondly, I think you’re maybe sliding between “simple decision function” and “blackmail with sensory experience”. However, you don’t have to be agnostic about sensory experience for your simple decision function either. It can be that my decision procedure entangles with my sensory observations or thoughts. The usual proposition of flipping a coin to decide. Well, then Omega has to predict the coin to get a certain accuracy. If you had a fundamentally random coin, then you’ve forced Omega to be ~50% accurate and you’ve refuted problem statements saying Omega was >50% accurate. Similarly, just as with the coin, I can entangle some simple decision procedure with observations of my thoughts- as I do automatically. Omega, to get some required accuracy, needs more precision and more simulation of my brain beyond a simple core. Then potentially further reality and experience. Agnosticism for that is relatively simple. “Huh, am I in a simulation or not?” is a relatively mundane sort of thing to ask with good enough simulations.
Descartes’ implication, “I think therefore I am.” is perfectly consistent with your senses being bedevilled (as was the original thought experiment!), your mind being much smaller or weaker than you thought, your rationality being limited, or more exotic things. Beyond this, being uncertain whether you have sense experience is not esoteric. My AmISensingThings complex mental heuristic can be stubbed with something that produces “yes, you are”, just as my sense for grass can be fed with a reality sim.
An alternative way of framing this beyond such is that even in low-fidelity scenarios, while perhaps “you” can tell you’re not in a simulation, your simplified decision algorithm can’t and also isn’t coherent enough to do “I think”. Thus your decision is replicated across simulation and reality regardless.
Regardless, I don’t think rejecting or weakening Descartes’ is that radical if we aren’t thinking of minds as unpredictable unitary things, but I also simply disagree that we need to reject it.
Your actions do not have to agree with what you believe exists. Just as CDT takes actions it can even believe in some meaningful sense are wrong. An FDT agent is not unsure whether or not it exists, precisely, rather strategies are evaluated from a standpoint which doesn’t privilege indexicality. (Similar, once more, to the joke “It is a 50⁄50 chance whether I win or I fail, it either happens or it doesn’t!”, which is a similar conflation of layers though different in sort)
But, a sample size of three given the framing above makes me simply disagree with them. Whether because they’re evaluating a different sort of argument, or direct disagreement about FDT or how simulations “work”. Uncertainty about being in a sim is relatively minor, just as you have some fundamental uncertainty that you’re a Boltzmann brain or are fundamentally confused in some other manner.
To go back a bit, to footnote 2,
Assuming the predictor isn’t predicting you by simulating you with high fidelity (since otherwise you can just say that you might be in the simulation). This is reasonable to postulate because FDT is also supposed to change your action with very bad prediction on the part of Omega, e.g. with only a 60% success rate.
For one, I think this is a odd thing to presume when you’re talking about metaphysical assumptions! Simulations are a classic justification for why this makes sense. You go into this some with the pseudo-simulation, but I don’t think you really defeat a weak metaphysics of simulation. Your pseudo-simulation arguments I’ve already objected to directly, and so my belief is that simulations even with lower fidelity basically survive just fine and thus should be considered directly.
But, moving back once more, paired with footnote 5:
Then the response is often “but the impossible realities never actually happen, it’s purely concentrated in counterfactuals”. Well, sure, but the consideration is always present in this framing. If Omega is imperfect, you’re making decisions by imagining an x% chance that you’re making this reality impossible with your action (and that something else actually happened).
We can spin this around. For one, you have an x% belief that the predictor made a mistake. If there’s a 60% accurate simulation, and I observe the blackmail, then I am either in the simulation where I am being tested, or am I in literal reality where the predictor made a bad prediction if I was sort of agent to not pay in the simulation. If it is “not high fidelity” then your rich observations tell you this is reality, thus you’re in the 40% outcome. Your policy, as an FDT agent, has you take the don’t pay action because by the updateless prior you get overall better outcomes that way.
The “impossible world” doesn’t really occur here at all! This is just unfortunate world where you stick with what your decision procedure said was the best action due to the subjunctive dependency on your action.
Really, I think your high fidelity vs low fidelity distinction is confused. A charitable reinterpretation would be that it is a metaphysical question of “what does it mean to be instantiated in a simulation”, though I’ve argued against your pseudo-simulation argument. Another interpretation is that of whether it is observable that you are in a simulation. But, if you know whether or not you’re in a simulation, obviously you exploit that! And, FDT very happily exploits simulations its decision algorithm can differentiate. Imperfect blackmailer? Doesn’t pay in sim, pays in reality. Newcomb’s? One boxes in sim, two boxes in reality. Etc. It takes the more utility. Though I think you’re basically using it for “you know you’re experiencing reality but can still be predicted” which to me is basically just presuming non-simulation entirely, which is Weird.
Overall your post somewhat stuffs the “meat” of the disagreement into the footnotes and spends much of the post interpreting everyone as talking about metaphysics even if they think it is intuition, true but unrelated to the decision theory part (similar to how Lewis was a modal realist and came up with a CDT’s counterfactual notion, but while it may make one handle such possibilities better, it isn’t necessarily meaning they’re the Same Thing), and so on.
Generally, my view is that people invoking metaphysics as their objection are confused. Decision theory operates in first person so to speak, but our world models operate in third person. Like how CDT and FDT intervene on their graph, or extensive form game theory considers a high up path-level rather than from the agent’s perspective precisely. The translation between those two has logical and conceptual issues! A huge amount of MIRI work, agent foundations and such, was about conceptually and formally pinning those notions down without the decision theories exploding because they’re in an environment with predictors or can predict their own action in a deterministic environment (ex: troll bridge problem). To me it is no surprise that there is confusion from people understanding the works, and even from people who read about this a lot. This philosophical uncertainty leads to using intuition pumps, examples, and such that may sound of metaphysical significance but are of the same sort of direction as thinking of probability theory as possible-worlds, it is just that we do not yet have the best conceptual underpinning. This movement from first person understanding to third person world model is also where metaphysics and ontology seem to come in to bite, but that is only if you insist on the mental model being the same as the model of how the world is actually structured, which is an easy confusion to make but is very much distinct. The causal graphs of CDT are the sort of structure that is made to simplify (and skip over the work of defining meaningful physical counterfactuals) the world model as a global third person view.
And by a “CEV-monster” I mean someome who will end up hurting people for non-strategic reasons even after feeling perfectly secure in their godlike powers.) If this is correct, then I simply reject the premise. I think that although most people are probably “CEV-good”, there are also quite many “CEV-monsters”, i.e. people who value suffering for the sake of suffering (of others). I don’t know how many, but as a very rough estimate, let’s say between 5% and 50%?
You need to make a distinction between the negative element of a person’s CEV which scales with population (or something similar), and one which does not. Collapsing those confuses about scale.
For example, there’s plausible CEVs wherein someone takes revenge against some particular people or even a whole class of people who were their enemies, but which are otherwise nice. That, I could perhaps believe is 5-50%, though even then I doubt it is that large. Whether ‘they get killed’ or ‘they get tormented forever’. My view is that these worlds are very unfortunate but also still are placed among the most non-destructive sorts of worlds and are pretty good comparatively.Then, there are those who would instate biblical Hell, but I doubt that is anywhere near 50% even before given knowledge. After knowledge, I have much higher doubt. That is, most religious issues and political specific turns of fate dissolve under truth and reflection and that’s what most of your examples are.
So it becomes a question of what proportion of the population desires large-scale suffering on reflection which to me is <5%. If this wasn’t the case, the world would look very different.I do agree that monsters are more likely to be in positions of power, which should influence our reticence to give them such power but I feel we have dramatically different mental models of the degree of selection pressure.
I also do agree that some people may have substantially different fundamentals that cut off a lot of value, like possibly internally-coherent Buddhist philosophies which don’t rest on factual observations of the world, but that those are also quite rare. That is, most belief systems have some meaningful referent to facts about the world, or facts about people and thus turn dramatically given proper knowledge.
My view on your first hypothetical value lock-in example is that it is presupposing we messed up implementing CEV. So I don’t really consider that relevant.
If you get knowledge and control, then you can consider methods to more safely lock-in. So perhaps we do get some less-valuable futures due to lock-in stopping truly-better routes from being instantiated, but that I expect a CEV-enhanced individual to be able to consider much better methodologies than naive “ensure I believe X without referring to the nature of the world at all” (ala, your Hitler example; or the religious person enforcing their belief in God). My view is basically that you’re mostly considering “What if an unenhanced human got the power”; rather than “enhanced human” or even “unenhanced human with an AI they can ask for help from”.
4: The rest of that quote illuminates that much more.
The given lethal challenge is to solve within a time limit, driven by the dynamic in which, over time, increasingly weak actors with a smaller and smaller fraction of total computing power, become able to build AGI and destroy the world. Powerful actors all refraining in unison from doing the suicidal thing just delays this time limit—it does not lift it, unless computer hardware and computer software progress are both brought to complete severe halts across the whole Earth.
That is, we can’t decide not to just build AGI (for a very long period of time). Powerful actors refraining because they’ve realized the danger can delay it, but you can’t necessarily stop it from being made. Eventually there will be someone who can make it in some small country with GPUs and what not. A standard treaty being agreed upon would drastically help, of course!
So I disagree with your understanding of 4.
As well, it has been a common belief of that you don’t need all the current large amount of GPUs to get useful intelligence, just that it is substantially harder.
There is a certain amount of cross-pollination that makes everything hang together, but not enough to make the “readily” in this statement true, and not enough to make the rhetorical point it’s trying to make in favor of X-risk concerns.
I disagree somewhat weakly with this, but also that RL does help you on other problems, especially as you scale up and apply it to more areas. That is, just as “training over the entire internet” is what we did with early GPT models in pretraining, “training over as many varying problem sets as we can” is what we will do with RL. Even if we explicitly avoid training it on solving certain problems, those skills will generalize. Dario’s interview with Dwarkesh talks specifically about this,
We had all these measures. We had all these measures of how well it did at predicting all these other kinds of texts. It was only when you trained over all the tasks on the internet — when you did a general internet scrape from something like Common Crawl or scraping links in Reddit, which is what we did for GPT-2 — that you started to get generalization. I think we’re seeing the same thing on RL. We’re starting first with simple RL tasks like training on math competitions, then moving to broader training that involves things like code. Now we’re moving to many other tasks. I think then we’re going to increasingly get generalization. So that kind of takes out the RL vs. pre-training side of it. [… some discussion …] I can’t speak for the emphasis of anyone else. I can only talk about how we think about it. The goal is not to teach the model every possible skill within RL, just as we don’t do that within pre-training. Within pre-training, we’re not trying to expose the model to every possible way that words could be put together. Rather, the model trains on a lot of things and then reaches generalization across pre-training. That was the transition from GPT-1 to GPT-2 that I saw up close. The model reaches a point. I had these moments where I was like, “Oh yeah, you just give the model a list of numbers — this is the cost of the house, this is the square feet of the house — and the model completes the pattern and does linear regression.” Not great, but it does it, and it’s never seen that exact thing before. So to the extent that we are building these RL environments, the goal is very similar to what was done five or ten years ago with pre-training. We’re trying to get a whole bunch of data, not because we want to cover a specific document or a specific skill, but because we want to generalize.
So, I think the statement is somewhat wrong, but also with the context of “the standard is that we have to evaluate on lots of different tasks to start getting generalization which we are going to specifically do even if we might hope to avoid directly training on bad tasks”.
Can we raise the ceiling of the systems we can safely train by red-teaming, building RL honeypots, performing weak-to-strong generalization experiments, hardening our current environments, and making interpretability probes?
I’d say the answer is “yes”, but that doesn’t stop Eliezer’s objection! You getting a bit further doesn’t stop you from dying when the AI realizes its values are better fulfilled elsewise and can maneuver to a safe position. That is, similar to you trying to stop a very intelligent person from stealing your money, you often can’t! Especially since you’re giving them multiple tries and thus playing their ability to generalize around your issues against your ability to instill a deep sense of alignment-to-what-you-want!
You can install a wall around your home and they climb over it. You can make a secret chest of GPS-tracked fools gold. This does help you gain value from the person for longer, especially as they learn not to try some tricks, it doesn’t stall out your fundamental issue that you’re still making them more intelligent and trying cheap tricks. Aka Security Mindset.
Of course this is still valuable to research if you believe that alignment is easier along various axes, where you can win via just a bit of an edge with a quite smart AI system, but that’s not what Eliezer appears to believe nor what I believe.
11
Generally, I think this is effectively presuming we will have humans in the loop carefully helping the AI along. I mean, I hope so, but given the tendencies of the AI companies, race dynamics, the sheer effectiveness that AI will have in comparison to their researchers &etc.
The whole issue still remains in that, well, you need to ensure that cognitive machinery generalizes! You also seem to be considering primarily relatively mundane advancements in science, when the point is “do you trust an AGI to design and implement a method to do a pivotal act”. Which from many short training runs is still a big question of how you ensure that.
Operating at a highly intelligent level is a drastic shift in distribution from operating at a less intelligent level, opening up new external options, and probably opening up even more new internal choices and modes...
Like 10, 12 is a weakly true statement, that is, by sleight of hand, being used to serve a broader rhetorical point that is straightforwardly incorrect.
I think you misunderstand the point of 12, and other short statements like it, that is (as I read them to mean) they are meant to serve as “here’s a basic point, spelled out explicitly, to make the foundations being considered here clear in everyone’s mind”.
For example, it’s true that it’s different & harder to align GPT-5.4 than GPT-3. But humanity doesn’t need the alignment techniques used on GPT-3 to work on GPT-5.4, we just need to handle the distributional shift between ~GPT-5.2 and GPT-5.4, then between 5.4 and 5.5, & accelerating from there.
Later, Eliezer will say that he expects many of these problems to manifest after a “sharp capabilities gain”. But we have not hit this yet, as of 2026, even though AI models are already being used very heavily as part of AI R&D. The precise, specific moment we expect to encounter this shift in distribution, is the thing that will determine how much useful work we can get out of models towards alignment, and is primarily what Eliezer’s interlocutors seem to disagree with him about.
I agree we just need to handle distributional shift for these current models, but that I don’t see that as applying to models as we have them grow in capabilities and incentive + ability to optimize against a target. If you’re in a situation where you’re having to rely on the opponent not making any drastic decisions before you have time to update your defenses after you give them another two intelligence points, you’re going to open yourself up to substantial shifts.
However, we did have, for example, o1/o3, with o3 is a lying liar by Zvi and others. They’ve improved on it- though also Claude 4.6 was anecdotally pretty sycophantic and while Claude 4.7 is better it does seem we swap from “friendly happy sycophantic” to “colder argumentative” (Claude 4.7, ChatGPT 5.4). I don’t think these are major signs and are fine intermediate failures but I do think are worrying to the claim that we are handling these distributional shifts.
I also disagree AI models are already being used very heavily in a relevant sense, because I do think we have not yet reached the “Geniuses in a datacenter” level and are only starting to get the ability to send them off on their own to try all sorts of ideas without them going in circles. To me it is no surprise we haven’t hit major sharp turns from AI research, simply because it is still bottlenecked by human-in-the-loop and the model’s own inability to evaluate itself for long periods. (To predict: I’m skeptical Mythos hits that tier yet either)
This bends on whether you think there’s drastically better model designs available, and of whether you think they can be discovered before LLMs just continue scaling in mundane ways. Regardless, even if sticking with roughly LLMs is the right move, data already preprocessed for them, AI already know tons of about them, etc; I am skeptical there isn’t room for substantial performance increases within roughly current paradigm even though I don’t expect “boost to ASI in a short period”.
19 (a). More generally, there is no known way to use the paradigm of loss functions, sensory inputs, and/or reward inputs, to optimize anything within a cognitive system to point at particular things within the environment—to point to latent events and objects and properties in the environment, rather than relatively shallow functions of the sense data and reward...
There’s something about this argument that irks me that is hard to articulate properly. It’s sort of the same thing that irks me when people say that models are “just” next token predictors and therefore aren’t intelligent; it seems not-even-wrong. I realize that it’s not completely analogous because eventually an ASI is going to amplify small differences in utility functions and tile the world at max score, and so these details might end up mattering. It’s still annoying because I can imagine the writer watching Claude Code work its way all of the way up to superintelligence and witnessing the Dyson Sphere get built from the moon colony and going “well how do you know it’s not really just optimizing its sensory data?”
We don’t know how to consistently deliberately point it at those things, not that it can’t do so! I believe Eliezer has made this point before though I don’t have a link offhand.
30a:
I am more skeptical of Eliezer’s point in this as I am in others, but I do think you’re ignoring that it is effectively arguing that a pivotal act is going to be complicated. That there’s going to be lots of effects of how an AGI does things to ensure safety which you can’t reasonably verify. A classic example is the hypothetical “nanotech to burn GPUs”, even if in principle understandable, I do think it is very plausible that it would take months-years for humans to understand the design deeply, and also that these are only going to target GPUs and not for example the AGI off-switch or humans or- etc. Then of course whether the AGI necessitates social politicking, where the actions are taken to produce a specific image and odd chains of cause and effect. I think these are all in principle understandable but may take quite a bit more time than you have. Which is why Eliezer says
An AI whose action sequence you can fully understand all the effects of, before it executes, is much weaker than humans in that domain; you couldn’t make the same guarantee about an unaligned human as smart as yourself and trying to fool you.
That is, if the system was strategically trying to maneuver around you in its pivotal act, you’d be screwed.
32: I interpreted this as a disclaim against human-imitators, which was a more talked about research route (or piece of research routes) back then. Current LLMs are obviously not purely human-imitators anymore.
In my opinion a lot of objections are overindexing on current-day AI and then extrapolating it out, misunderstanding Eliezer, as well as simply believing the alignment problem is a lot easier from the get-go.
I don’t disagree with all your objections to the post, but I do simply doubt the iterative deployment story quite strongly (its a nice story, which makes things feel cozier, which I don’t think we have notable reason to believe) and it seems to play a pretty central role here.
Hm, my disagreement with this mental model is that I view current models as already helpful on research, and the further iterations on those models which AI companies will acquire over the next couple years are going to substantially improve on that. Even if LLMs are AGI-complete, in that they can be “boosted” to AGI, it is likely that given the ability to point a thousand automated researchers at foundational problems they’ll… just find that alternate architecture if it exists. This is part of what fuels my shorter timelines, to me they haven’t had to reach far at all yet. When you have that many GPUs to run copies of Claude/ChatGPT you can throw some at wide scattershot in the hope of an advantage in the race or more optimistically an advantage in alignment.
As well, I have the uncertainty of whether LLMs need to be AGI complete to still fill out many investor’s hopes and dreams. Like if OpenAI/Anthropic stalls out on investment in datacenters due to lowered confidence, it chokes and perhaps sells off a bunch, but then hires N-thousand software engineers eager for a job to chomp up massive parts of the industry using Claude 5.9-super-duper and become a giant ala Google/Apple/Microsoft regardless. That is, while it’d be a “winter” in terms of far lower mania, but that it won’t really stop them from their dreams too harshly. (Though perhaps I’m underestimating how hard they’d falter, like I know Dario said Anthropic was being cautious to avoid collapsing if they overestimate growth, and OpenAI was being less so? I don’t know what constraints they have that might lead to aggressive clawback or other treatment)
I somewhat agree, but I also do think “apply your Bayesian reasoning to figuring out what hypotheses to privilege” is how people decide which structural hypotheses (ontology) describe the world better. So I feel you’re taking an overly narrow view. Like, for scheming, you ask how these different notions inform what you can observe, the way the AI behaves, and methods to avoid it.
“Buddhism has been damaging to the epistemics of everyone in this sphere. Buddhism was only ever privileged as a hypothesis due to background SF/Bay-Area spiritualism rather than real merit.
Buddhist materials are explicitly selected for reshaping how you think within their frames. This makes it like joining a minor cult to learn their social skills. Some can extract the useful parts without buying in, but they are notably underrepresented in any discussion (some selection effects of course). The default assumption should be that you won’t, especially as the topic is treated without notable suspicion. Most other religions are massively safer to practice for a few years, though not without their risks, as they have more ritual rather than mental molding, and more argumentation for their Rightness. You’re already primed to notice flaws in arguments. Buddhism operates more directly on your mindset, framing, and probably even values as humans are not idealized agents where those are separate.
Meditation is useful, and probably doesn’t result in a lot of the central and surrounding Buddhist thought. However just like joining a cult, or playing a gacha game, you should be skeptical of Buddhism similarly as they are all Out to Get You.
My less strongly held opinion is that Buddhism’s likely endpoints are incompatible with human values and often truth-seeking. This would matter less if it was treated with suspicion, just as we rightly view most religions with skepticism even while openly discussing them, but it is a gaping hole in our mental defenses.”
(I agree with Ryan Greenblatt that most basically decent posts wouldn’t end up with negative karma for very long though; but I’d expect this to be decently unpopular)
I doubt you need that at all, Claude Code CLI or Codex CLI and you’re most of the way there. Based on your other comment saying 3.1 I’m wondering whether or not you’re using Claude/ChatGPT rather than Gemini? Gemini 3.0 at least was notably behind both of them, and while Gemini 3.1 has improved it still seems to struggle in comparison.
Extracting sections from books in my experience works pretty well- the main way they’ll ever choke on that is if they decide to read a 200page pdf to context because they lack knowledge of their own limits at digesting that. Tell them to convert it to text if they don’t do that themselves?
What I mean is that you need a way to robustly point an AI at a point in the space of all values, which does have coherent structure, and that is a hard problem to actually point at what you want in a way that extrapolates out of distribution as you would want it to do. So, if you have the ability to robustly make the AI follow these virtues as we intend them to be followed, then you probably have enough alignment capability to point it at “value humanity as we would desire” (or “act as a consequentialist and maximize that with reflection about ensuring you aren’t doing bad things”). So then virtue ethics is just a less useful target.
Now, you can try doing far weaker methods of training a model, similar to the Claude’s “Helpful, Harmless, Honest” sortof virtues. However, I don’t think that will be robust, and it hasn’t been for as long as people have tried making LLMs not say bad things. With reinforcement learning and further automated research, this problem becomes starker as there’s ever more pressure making our weak methods of instilling those virtues fall apart.
I don’t think we really know how to raise humans to be robustly virtuous. I view us as having a lot of the machinery inbuilt, Byrnes’ post on this topic is relevant. AI won’t have that, nor do I see a strong reason it will adopt values from the environment in just the right way.
However, also, I don’t view a lot of humans virtue ethics as being robust in the sense that we desperately need AI values to be robust. See the examples in my parent comment I gave of the history of virtue ethics becoming an end in of itself leading to bad examples. This is partially due simply to that humans are not naturally modeled as having virtue ethics by default, but rather (imo) a mix of virtue ethics / deontology / consequentialism.
My view on this is that it runs into the same problems many alternative alignment targets have: If you can robustly train an AI to embody these virtues, then I suspect you thereby have (or are not far off from) the ability to train the AI to be a “good consequentialist” or even more simply “value humanity as we desire” rather than these loose proxies.
Credit hacking is still a problem here, virtue ethics does not sidestep Goodhart’s law or other forms of over-optimization. History has had many virtues being optimized until the “real target” is left barren, as extreme ascetics, various forms of Hinduism, flagellants, abuse of humility, social status “Character” over genuine goodness, ritualized propriety, courage → recklessness, and so on show us. More directly on your point, however, while somewhat true, I think you underrate how manipulable framing is for virtue ethics. Consequentialism actively discourages messing with your framing of an issue, for distorting your vision results in systematically less utility. Virtue ethics has a lot of room to reframe an issue- that actually, the opponent betrayed his word and thus is dishonorable, so aggression is now justice; the outgroup lacks your civilized virtues, so dominating them is really benevolence; opponents used dishonest means, thus undermining them preserves the integrity of the situation. These are avoidable, I do not think that many “default” ways of implementing virtue ethics easily avoids them. (And some of these framings might even be correct; just that I am wary of designing an AI with an incentive to perform sort of reasoning)
As well, while I don’t think this is an inevitable feature of virtue ethics, virtue ethics does often result in it being virtuous to spread those virtues. While this can be good, even for a non-consequentialist less aggressive AGI/ASI, I don’t think giving it desires that result in it wanting to push others along its values is a good idea. The virtues, especially if we’re choosing ones that seem useful, are proxies of our values.
I disagree. I don’t see increased focus on scheming, if anything notably less common. In part due to updating on current gen LLMs. I do think there is a tendency to think about scheming as a discrete thing, but that it is more common among the optimistic who point at current gen LLMs not really being ‘schemers’.
I agree with the way Zvi talks about the topic. “Being a schemer” is not quite the right classification. The issue is that deception is a naturally convergent tool for all sorts of goals, anything that interfaces with reality intelligently will find that deception and manipulation are useful tools. So we’d naturally expect that RL and other fun methods will push towards that being a greater aspect- and that even if we don’t have any badly mislabeled data or reward-hackable environments, sufficiently general intelligence will be able to construct the methodology by itself.
So I kinda agree with your post, but I also feel that you’re then turning down scheming/deception as less of a thing, when it is still a relevant categorization just hard to measure and be confident in how it grows as you scale.
Contrary, I liked this post and the latter half the most. It serves as a relatively direct parable about different levels of ability and also the major problems with common arguments against AGI/ASI, which I think people still miss making a point of very often. Spelling them out explicitly without going into super-long detail as a full post is good as it provides more concise argumentative handles. That is, people do not actually make the basic counterarguments enough.
(I also think those suggesting that this is already argued out enough should link to alternative posts. Posts for higher quality and more concise argumentation, and also posts made for reading by interlocutors.)
From my current stance, it is plausible, because we haven’t settled how we think of aliens (especially those who are significantly outside of our behaviors) philosophically. I most likely don’t respect arbitrary intelligent agents, as I’d be for getting rid of a vulnerable paperclipper if we found one on the far edges of the galaxy.
Then, I think you’re not extrapolating mentally how much that computronium would give. From our current perspective the logic makes sense: where we upload the aliens regardless even if you respect their preferences beyond that, because it lets you simulate vastly more aliens or other humans at the same time.
I expect we care about their preferences. However those preferences will end up to some degree subordinate to our own preferences, the clear obvious being that we probably wouldn’t allow them an ASI depending on how attack/defense works, but the other being that we may upload them regardless due to the sheer benefits.Beyond that I disagree how common that motivation is. I think the kind of learning we know naturally results in that, limited social agents modeling each other in an iterated environment, is currently not on track to apply to AI.… and that another route is “just care strategically” especially if you’re intelligent enough. I feel this is extrapolating a relatively modern human line of thought to arbitrary kinds of minds.
(Note: I’ve only read a few pages so far, so perhaps this is already in the background)
I agree that if the parent comment scenario holds then it is a case of the upload being improper.
However, I also disagree that most humans naturally generalize our values out of distribution. I think it is very easy for many humans to get sucked into attractors (ideologies that are simplifications of what they truly want; easy lies; the amount of effort ahead stalling out focus even if the gargantuan task would be worth it) that damage their ability to properly generalize and also importantly apply their values. That is, humans have predictable flaws. Then when you add in self-modification you open up whole new regimes.
My view is that a very important element of our values is that we do not necessarily endorse all of our behaviors!
I think a smart and self-aware human could sidestep and weaken these issues, but I do think they’re still hard problems. Which is why I’m a fan of (if we get uploads) going “Upload, figure out AI alignment, then have the AI think long and hard about it” as that further sidesteps problems of a human staring too long at the sun. That is, I think it is very hard for a human to directly implement something like CEV themselves, but that a designed mind doesn’t necessarily have the same issues.
As an example: power-seeking instinct. I don’t endorse seeking power in that way, especially if uploaded to try to solve alignment for Humanity in general, but given my status as an upload and lots of time realizing that I have a lot of influence over the world, I think it is plausible that instinct affects me more and more. I would try to plan around this but likely do so imperfectly.
A core element is that you expect acausal trade among far more intelligent agents, such as AGI or even ASI. As well that they’ll be using approximations.
Problem 1: There isn’t going to be much Darwinian selection pressure against a civilization that can rearrange stars and terraform planets. I’m of the opinion that it has mostly stopped mattering now, and will only matter even less over time. As long as we don’t end up in a “everyone has an AI and competes in a race to the bottom”. I don’t think it is that odd that an ASI could resist selection pressures. It operates on a faster time-scale and can apply more intelligent optimization than evolution can, towards the goal of keeping itself and whatever civilization it manages stable.
Problem 2: I find it somewhat plausible there’s some nicely sufficiently pinned down variables that can get us to a more objective measure. However, I don’t think it is needed and most presentations of this don’t go for an objective distribution.
So, to me, using a UTM that is informed by our own physics and reality is fine. This presumably results in more of a ‘trading nearby’ sense, the typical example being across branches, but in more generality. You have more information about how those nearby universes look anyway.The downside here is that whatever true distribution there is, you’re not trading directly against it. But if it is too hard for an ASI in our universe to manage, then presumably many agents aren’t managing to acausally trade against the true distribution regardless.
I think you’re referring to their previous work? Or you might find it relevant if you didn’t run into it. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ifechgnJRtJdduFGC/emergent-misalignment-narrow-finetuning-can-produce-broadly
If you were pessimistic about LLMs learning a general concept of good/bad, then yes, that should update you. However, I think it still has the main core problems. If you are doing a simple continual learning loop (LLM → output → retrain to accumulate knowledge; analogous to ICL) then we can ask the question of how robust this process is. Do the values of how to behave drastically diverge. Such as, are there attractors over a hundred days of output that it is dragged towards that aren’t aligned at all? Can it be jail-broken wittingly or not by getting the model to produce garbage responses that it is then trained on? And then arguments like ‘does this hold up under reflection’ or ’does it attach itself to the concept of good or chatgpt-influenced good (or evil). So while LLMs being capable of learning good is, well, good, there are still big targeting, resolution, and reflection issues.
For this post specifically, I believe it to be bad news. It provides evidence that subtle reward hacking scenarios encourage the model to act misaligned in a more general manner. It is likely quite nontrivial to get rid of reward-hacking like behavior in our larger and larger training runs. So if the model gets into a period of time where reward-hacking is rewarded, a continual learning scenario is easiest to imagine but even in training, then it may drastically change its behavior.
I have some of the same feeling, but internally I’ve mostly pinned it to two prongs of repetition and ~status.
ChatGPT’s writing is increasingly disliked by those who recognize it. The prose is poor in various ways, but I’ve certainly read worse and not been so off-put. Nor am I as off-put when I first use a new model, but then I increasingly notice its flaws over the next few weeks. The main aspect is that the generated prose is repetitive across the writings which ensures we can pick up on the pattern. Such as making it easy to predict flaws. Just as I avoid many generic power fantasy fiction as much of it is very predictable in how it will fall short even though many are still positive value if I didn’t have other things to do with my time.
So, I think a substantial part is that of recognizing the style, there being flaws you’ve seen in many images in the past, and then regardless of whether this specific actual image is that problematic, the mind associates it with negative instances and also being overly predictable.
Status-wise this is not entirely in a negative status game sense. A generated image is a sign that it was probably not that much effort for the person making it, and the mind has learned to associate art with effort + status to a degree, even if indirect effort + status by the original artist the article is referencing. And so it is easy to learn a negative feeling towards these, which attaches itself to the noticeable shared repetition/tone. Just like some people dislike pop in part due to status considerations like being made by celebrities or countersignaling of not wanting to go for the most popular thing, and then that feeds into an actual dislike for that style of musical art.
But this activates too easily, a misfiring set of instincts, so I’ve deliberately tamped it down on myself; because I realized that there are plenty of images which five years ago I would have been simply impressed and find them visually appealing. I think this is an instinct that is to a degree real (generated images can be poorly made), while also feeding on itself that makes it disconnected from past preferences. I don’t think that the poorly made images should notably influence my enjoyment of better quality images, even if there is a shared noticeable core. So that’s my suggestion.
Anecdotally, I would perceive “Bowing out of this thread” as a more negative response because it encapsulates both topic as well as the quality of my response or behavior of myself. While “not worth getting into” is mostly about the worth of the object level matter. (Though remarking on behavior of the person you’re arguing with is a reasonable thing to do, I’m not sure that interpretation is what you intend)
I disagree. Posts seem to have an outsized effect and will often be read a bunch before any solid criticisms appear. Then are spread even given high quality rebuttals… if those ever materialize.
I also think you’re referring to a group of people who write high quality posts typically and handle criticism well, while others don’t handle criticism well. Despite liking many of his posts, Duncan is an example of this.As for Said specifically, I’ve been annoyed at reading his argumentation a few times, but then also find him saying something obvious and insightful that no one else pointed out anywhere in the comments. Losing that is unfortunate. I don’t think there’s enough “this seems wrong or questionable, why do you believe this?”
Said is definitely more rough than I’d like, but I also do think there’s a hole there that people are hesitant to fill.So I do agree with Wei that you’ll just get less criticism, especially since I do feel like LessWrong has been growing implicitly less favorable towards quality critiques and more favorable towards vibey critiques. That is, another dangerous attractor is the Twitter/X attractor, wherein arguments do exist but they matter to the overall discourse less than whether or not someone puts out something that directionally ‘sounds good’. I think this is much more likely than the sneer attractor or the linkedin attractor.
I also think that while the frontpage comments section has been good for surfacing critique, it encourages the “this sounds like the right vibe” substantially. As well as a mentality of reading the comments before the post, encouraging faction mentality.
Under the normal meaning of metaphysics, a mathematician can believe in meaningful truth without being a platonist, just as Bayesian probability theory does not require branching multiverse or fundamental randomness. CDT itself, with determinism, reasons through impossible realities via causal graph counterfactuals. There is a mundane separation between utilizing a model to decide, and asserting the model as a literal claim about physical reality.
I could cut it down, but when your own document is quite long and making strong assertions then long replies are reasonable in order to get at the actual disagreements.