You might find Origins Of Political Order interesting. Emphasis on how the principle agent problem is one of the central issues of governance and how without strong mechanisms systems tend to descend into corruption
FiftyTwo
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Is there any way of reverse engineering from these pictures what existing images were used to generate them? Would be interesting to see how much similarity there is.
So we just need to get two superpowers who currently feel they are in a zero sum competition with each other to stop trying to advance in an area that gives them a potentially infinite advantage? Seems a very classic case of the kind of coordination problems that are difficult to solve, with high rewards for defecting.
We have, partially managed to do this for nuclear and biological weapons. But only with a massive oversight infrastructure that doesn’t exist for AI. And relying on physical evidence and materials control that doesn’t exist for AI. It’s not impossible, but it would require a similar level of concerted international effort that was used for nuclear weapons. Which took a long time, so possibly doesn’t fit with your short timeline
A more charitable interpretation of the same evidence would be that as a public health professional Dr Fauci has a lot of experience with the difficulties of communicating complex and messages and the political tradeoffs that are necessary for effective action. And has judged based on that experience what is most effective to say. Do you have data he doesn’t? Or a reason to think his experience in his speciality is inapplicable?
Earth does have the global infrastructure
It does? What do you mean? The only thing I can think of is the UN, and recent events don’t make it very likely they’d engage in coordinated action on anything.
It should not take long, given these pieces and a moderate amount of iteration, to create an agentic system capable of long-term decision-making
That is, to put it mildly, a pretty strong claim, and one I don’t think the rest of your post really justifies. Without which it’s still just listing a theoretical thing to worry about
If you’re an otherwise healthy young person who has tested positive, what’s the best thing you can do to prevent getting long covid? Seems like there’s research saying that exercising too early can make it worse, but other articles saying good things about exercise, and I’m not sure how to evaluate it.
My greatest legacy
Good programmers who are a pain to work with are much less successful than average programmers who are pleasant to work with. Increasing technical competency has diminishing returns. So I’d focus on doing things that gets you more experience of working with people, the business development internship may do that depending on the details. Also things like working in a bar or restaurant.
Note that this is distinct from the standard advice on developing social skills. Being good at talking to strangers and going to parties is good. But working well with people in an employment context is different, its much more about maintaining working relationships with people you may not especially like, than forming deep connections.
I’d be curious what you think now after many years to see the effects of things in practice
Great to see everyone. Is there somewhere we can sign up for future events in London?
Characterising the reaction to Cummings as about being about people overreacting to a small violation of the rules is misleading. The issue wasn’t the initial rule violation, it was that the initial denial and lack of even token punishment was symbolic of a wider issue in the Johnson government with corruption and cronyism. Caring about hypocrisy and corruption among leaders is entirely rational as it is indicative of how they will make other decisions in the future.
Yeah I like a lot of EY’s stuff (otherwise I wouldn’t be here) but he does have a habit of treating his own preferences as universal, or failing to appreciate when there might be good reasons that the seemingly obvious solution doesn’t work, as is common with people commenting on areas outside their expertise
I think its unfair to say “everyone in Europe lost their minds” when the EU health agency was very loudly saying things were fine. It would be more accurate to say a couple of specific countries medical regulators and some politicians went crazy.
Obviously that’s still bad, but when looking at systemic failures like this it is important to identify the actual source of the problem. Which seem to be due to idiosyncratic political issues in teh countries involved. Blaming the wrong people undermines the ones who have been doing a good job
How would you differentiate this from someone just asking for additional evidence because they think you’ve made a false statement? E.g. If Alice tells Bob the earth is flat, its reasonable for him to ask for additional evidence, and doing so doesn’t imply he’s playing status games. But could equally reasonably be replied to by saying that Bob is only disagreeing because he thinks Alice isn’t high status enough to make cosmological claims.
Like, who has the authority to say “thou shalt not try things that might fail”? As long as you’re not conning anybody out of resources, your failure doesn’t pick anybody else’s pocket.
What about altruistic reasons for asking? If my friend is planning to quit their job and become a famous musician I would probably attempt strongly to dissuade them, even if it wouldn’t directly affect me.
If however I thought they were likely to succeed (e.g. have made money selling music on bandcamp and performing, in talks with a record company, etc.) I probably wouldn’t dissuade them.
I feel like after reading this I have a much better insight into how Eliezer thinks than I did before, even having read most of his published work.
I think his model of other people is off though.
Specifically, he uses ideas of comparative status to explain other people not challenging conventional wisdom, or trying new things a lot. Which feels like it could be a fully general argument for any observed behaviour (e.g. it could equally well explain a habit of disproportionately challenging experts, as being in conflict with them puts you at their level and gains status).
I think its more accurate to say that people are reluctant to try new things because of loss aversion. Let’s say people are investing a certain amount of time and energy in a project, like writing HPMOR, one option has a 1⁄100 chance of a million-dollar (or utils or whatever) reward, the other is a certainty of a thousand dollars. Most people would choose the second, even if that’s not what the naive math would say. Similarly, if they thought that a project as big as writing a novel had a 9⁄10 chance of being a flop, then they wouldn’t even try it. (I definitely notice this habit in myself, rejections and failures weigh on me mentally more than successes. So, my behaviour often defaults to avoiding them.) The moderate position is to start with less investment heavy/risky projects first to get a better idea of likely success levels and build confidence.
Hello! Just rediscovered this thread. The website doesn’t seem to be up anymore. How did it go in the end? Where are you at with learning mandarin?
Since you seem to be sincere in asking for reasons:
“Whore” is considered an unpleasant word by many people. That combined with the overall tone may have made people think your intention was trollish
You seem to deeply misunderstand the dynamics that lead to ssex eduation being the way it is. There is no plausible transition from the way the world exists at present to one where retired sex workers were employed in the school system to teach sex education.
a) Because the majority still have moral objections to sex work and it is illegal in many places.
b) there is no common agreement that children should be taught about sex full stop, much less about sexual techniques aimed at pleasure. The only way the very minimal sex education that does exist has been allowed has come to exist is because it framed in terms of health
Thanks. This is the kind of content I originally came to LW for a decade ago, but seems to have become less popular