TagLast edit: 11 Feb 2023 18:27 UTC by

The Sleeping Beauty Paradox is a question of how anthropics affects probabilities.

Sleeping Beauty volunteers to undergo the following experiment. On Sunday she is given a drug that sends her to sleep. A fair coin is then tossed just once in the course of the experiment to determine which experimental procedure is undertaken. If the coin comes up heads, Beauty is awakened and interviewed on Monday, and then the experiment ends. If the coin comes up tails, she is awakened and interviewed on Monday, given a second dose of the sleeping drug, and awakened and interviewed again on Tuesday. The experiment then ends on Tuesday, without flipping the coin again. The sleeping drug induces a mild amnesia, so that she cannot remember any previous awakenings during the course of the experiment (if any). During the experiment, she has no access to anything that would give a clue as to the day of the week. However, she knows all the details of the experiment.

Each interview consists of one question, “What is your credence now for the proposition that our coin landed heads?”

One argument says that since Beauty will see the same thing on waking whether the coin came up heads or not, what she sees on waking provides no evidence one way or the other about the coin, and therefore she should stick with the prior probability of one half.

Another argument replies that the two awakenings when the coin comes up tails imply that waking up itself should be considered evidence in favor of tails. Out of all possible situations where Beauty is asked the question, only one out of three has the coin showing heads. Therefore, one third.

A third argument tries to add rigor by considering monetary payoffs. If Beauty’s bets about the coin get paid out once per experiment, she will do best by acting as if the probability is one half. If the bets get paid out once per awakening, acting as if the probability is one third has the best expected value.

# Agree­ment on anthropics

10 Mar 2011 4:38 UTC
4 points

# The First-Per­son Per­spec­tive Is Not A Ran­dom Sample

7 Mar 2022 16:31 UTC
38 points

# Full Non-In­dex­i­cal Con­di­tion­ing Also As­sumes A Self Sam­pling Pro­cess.

12 Feb 2022 1:46 UTC
16 points

# A Sim­plified Ver­sion of Per­spec­tive Solu­tion to the Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

31 Dec 2020 18:27 UTC
9 points
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

# An­thropic Rea­son­ing and Per­spec­tive-Based Ar­gu­ments

1 Sep 2020 12:36 UTC
28 points

# The Val­idity of Self-Lo­cat­ing Probabilities

21 Aug 2021 2:53 UTC
8 points

# An­throp­ics and Embed­ded Agency

26 Jun 2021 1:45 UTC
7 points

# Are co­in­ci­dences clues about missed dis­asters? It de­pends on your an­swer to the Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem.

5 Jul 2021 19:12 UTC
32 points

# If a tree falls on Sleep­ing Beauty...

12 Nov 2010 1:14 UTC
134 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty, Clon­ing Beauty, and Fre­quen­tist Ar­gu­ments In An­thropic Paradoxes

9 Nov 2020 23:17 UTC
5 points

# An­thropic Para­doxes and Self Refer­ence

6 Jun 2021 2:52 UTC
6 points

# Dis­solv­ing Sleep­ing Beauty

24 Jan 2021 8:10 UTC
13 points

# Ab­sent-Minded Driver and Self-Lo­cat­ing Probabilities

14 Aug 2021 0:09 UTC
12 points
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

# Some Var­i­ants of Sleep­ing Beauty

1 Mar 2023 16:51 UTC
34 points

# [Question] Is Adam Elga’s proof for thirdism in Sleep­ing Beauty still con­sid­ered to be sound?

16 Jul 2023 14:11 UTC
9 points

# SIA is ba­si­cally just Bayesian up­dat­ing on existence

4 Jun 2021 13:17 UTC
25 points

# How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?

20 Sep 2008 21:38 UTC
36 points

# An­throp­i­cal Motte and Bailey in two ver­sions of Sleep­ing Beauty

2 Aug 2023 7:08 UTC
29 points

# The Benev­olent Billion­aire (a pla­gia­rized prob­lem)

18 May 2023 17:39 UTC
8 points

# Top YouTube chan­nel Ver­i­ta­sium re­leases video on Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

11 Feb 2023 20:36 UTC
25 points

# Monty Hall Sleep­ing Beauty

18 Sep 2015 21:18 UTC
3 points

# Re­peated (and im­proved) Sleep­ing Beauty problem

10 Jul 2018 22:32 UTC
12 points

# More mar­bles and Sleep­ing Beauty

23 Nov 2014 2:00 UTC
7 points

# Vari­a­tions on the Sleep­ing Beauty

10 Jan 2016 13:00 UTC
0 points

# An­thropic de­ci­sion the­ory I: Sleep­ing beauty and selflessness

1 Nov 2011 11:41 UTC
22 points

# Per­spec­tive Rea­son­ing and the Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

22 Nov 2018 11:55 UTC
6 points

# The fair­ness of the Sleep­ing Beauty

7 Jul 2015 8:25 UTC
2 points

# An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory III: Solv­ing Selfless and To­tal Utili­tar­ian Sleep­ing Beauty

3 Nov 2011 10:04 UTC
8 points

# An­thropic De­ci­sion The­ory IV: Solv­ing Selfish and Aver­age-Utili­tar­ian Sleep­ing Beauty

4 Nov 2011 10:55 UTC
2 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity is a model, fre­quency is an ob­ser­va­tion: Why both halfers and thirders are cor­rect in the Sleep­ing Beauty prob­lem.

12 Jul 2018 6:52 UTC
24 points

# Beauty quips, “I’d shut up and mul­ti­ply!”

7 May 2010 14:34 UTC
15 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity is fake, fre­quency is real

10 Jul 2018 22:32 UTC
12 points

# The Beauty and the Prince

26 Jun 2018 13:10 UTC
8 points

# Sleep­ing anti-beauty and the pre­sump­tu­ous philosopher

17 Feb 2011 14:59 UTC
7 points

# Les­sons from Failed At­tempts to Model Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

20 Feb 2024 6:43 UTC
22 points

# Con­ser­va­tion of Ex­pected Ev­i­dence and Ran­dom Sam­pling in Anthropics

3 Sep 2023 6:55 UTC
9 points

# [Question] A short talk on SB and friends

29 Nov 2020 21:07 UTC
10 points

# Out-of-body rea­son­ing (OOBR)

9 Jan 2021 16:10 UTC
5 points

# “Who I am” is an ax­iom.

25 Apr 2021 21:59 UTC
7 points

# An­throp­ics: differ­ent prob­a­bil­ities, differ­ent questions

6 May 2021 13:14 UTC
24 points

# An­thropic de­ci­sion the­ory for self-lo­cat­ing beliefs

12 Jul 2021 14:11 UTC
17 points

# The Val­idity of Self-Lo­cat­ing Prob­a­bil­ities (Pt. 2)

25 Aug 2021 1:53 UTC
6 points

# SIA > SSA, part 1: Learn­ing from the fact that you exist

1 Oct 2021 5:43 UTC
45 points

# Bet­ter and Worse Ways of Stat­ing SIA

28 Oct 2021 16:04 UTC
4 points

# You Don’t Need An­throp­ics To Do Science

7 Nov 2021 15:07 UTC
6 points
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

# Break­ing the SIA with an ex­po­nen­tially-Sleep­ing Beauty

20 Feb 2022 8:03 UTC
7 points

# Prim­i­tive Per­spec­tives and Sleep­ing Beauty

26 Mar 2022 1:55 UTC
21 points

# Sleep­ing Ju­lia: Em­piri­cal sup­port for thirder ar­gu­ment in the Sleep­ing Beauty Problem

3 Nov 2020 0:21 UTC
4 points

# An­trop­i­cal Prob­a­bil­ities Are Fully Ex­plained by Differ­ence in Pos­si­ble Outcomes

9 Nov 2023 15:34 UTC
17 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty – the Death Hypothesis

5 May 2023 23:32 UTC
0 points

# “Solv­ing” self­ish­ness for UDT

27 Oct 2014 17:51 UTC
38 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty Re­solved?

22 May 2018 14:13 UTC
16 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty Re­solved (?) Pt. 2: Iden­tity and Betting

2 Jun 2018 2:43 UTC
9 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty Not Resolved

19 Jun 2018 4:46 UTC
18 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty: Is Disagree­ment While Shar­ing All In­for­ma­tion Pos­si­ble in An­thropic Prob­lems?

1 Aug 2019 20:10 UTC
7 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty gets coun­ter­fac­tu­ally mugged

26 Mar 2009 11:44 UTC
4 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty as a de­ci­sion prob­lem (solved)

10 Oct 2010 3:15 UTC
7 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem Can Be Ex­plained by Per­spec­tive Disagree­ment (II)

19 Jul 2017 23:00 UTC
5 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty should re­main pure

9 Jan 2011 17:40 UTC
1 point

# Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem, An­thropic Prin­ci­ple and Per­spec­tive Reasoning

9 Mar 2019 15:21 UTC
5 points

# Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem Can Be Ex­plained by Per­spec­tive Disagree­ment (I)

19 Jul 2017 22:11 UTC
1 point

# Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem Can Be Ex­plained by Per­spec­tive Disagree­ment (IV)

26 Jul 2017 1:01 UTC
1 point

# Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem Can Be Ex­plained by Per­spec­tive Disagree­ment (III)

22 Jul 2017 14:50 UTC
0 points

# The Sleep­ing Beauty Prob­lem and The Dooms­day Ar­gu­ment Can Be Ex­plained by Per­spec­tive In­con­sis­tency

5 Aug 2018 13:45 UTC
5 points
(www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com)

# Iter­ated Sleep­ing Beauty and Copied Minds

21 Dec 2010 7:21 UTC
3 points

# The Sleep­ing Beauty prob­lem and trans­for­ma­tion invariances

23 Aug 2015 20:57 UTC
2 points