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De­ci­sion Theory

TagLast edit: 1 Oct 2020 21:28 UTC by Ruby

Decision theory is the study of principles and algorithms for making correct decisions—that is, decisions that allow an agent to achieve better outcomes with respect to its goals. Every action at least implicitly represents a decision under uncertainty: in a state of partial knowledge, something has to be done, even if that something turns out to be nothing (call it “the null action”). Even if you don’t know how you make decisions, decisions do get made, and so there has to be some underlying mechanism. What is it? And how can it be done better? Decision theory has the answers.

Note: this page needs to be updated with content regarding Functional Decision Theory, the latest theory from MIRI.

Related: Game Theory, Robust Agents, Utility Functions

A core idea in decision theory is that of expected utility maximization, usually intractable to directly calculate in practice, but an invaluable theoretical concept. An agent assigns utility to every possible outcome: a real number representing the goodness or desirability of that outcome. The mapping of outcomes to utilities is called the agent’s utility function. (The utility function is said to be invariant under affine transformations: that is, the utilities can be scaled or translated by a constant while resulting in all the same decisions.) For every action that the agent could take, sum over the utilities of the various possible outcomes weighted by their probability: this is the expected utility of the action, and the action with the highest expected utility is to be chosen.

Thought experiments

The limitations and pathologies of decision theories can be analyzed by considering the decisions they suggest in the certain idealized situations that stretch the limits of decision theory’s applicability. Some of the thought experiments more frequently discussed on LW include:

Commonly discussed decision theories

Standard theories well-known in academia:

Theories invented by researchers associated with MIRI and LW:

Other decision theories are listed in A comprehensive list of decision theories.

Blog posts

Sequence by AnnaSalamon

Sequence by orthonormal (Decision Theories: A Semi-Formal Analysis)

See also

De­ci­sion Theory

31 Oct 2018 18:41 UTC
105 points
38 comments1 min readLW link

Chris­ti­ano de­ci­sion the­ory excerpt

Rob Bensinger29 Sep 2019 2:55 UTC
56 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory: A New The­ory of In­stru­men­tal Rationality

ESRogs20 Oct 2017 8:09 UTC
15 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

Dutch-Book­ing CDT: Re­vised Argument

abramdemski27 Oct 2020 4:31 UTC
47 points
20 comments16 min readLW link

An Ortho­dox Case Against Utility Functions

abramdemski7 Apr 2020 19:18 UTC
113 points
49 comments8 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Less Wrong Primer

orthonormal13 Mar 2012 23:31 UTC
97 points
174 comments9 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory FAQ

lukeprog28 Feb 2013 14:15 UTC
99 points
482 comments58 min readLW link

Co­her­ent de­ci­sions im­ply con­sis­tent utilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 May 2019 21:33 UTC
123 points
80 comments26 min readLW link3 nominations3 reviews

Co­her­ence ar­gu­ments do not im­ply goal-di­rected behavior

rohinmshah3 Dec 2018 3:26 UTC
75 points
65 comments7 min readLW link

Towards a New De­ci­sion Theory

Wei_Dai13 Aug 2009 5:31 UTC
72 points
145 comments6 min readLW link

A Cri­tique of Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

wdmacaskill13 Sep 2019 19:23 UTC
88 points
47 comments20 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory and zero-sum game the­ory, NP and PSPACE

jessicata24 May 2018 8:03 UTC
52 points
20 comments4 min readLW link

Embed­ded Agency (full-text ver­sion)

15 Nov 2018 19:49 UTC
114 points
11 comments54 min readLW link

Ro­bust Co­op­er­a­tion in the Pri­soner’s Dilemma

orthonormal7 Jun 2013 8:30 UTC
108 points
146 comments7 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging Poker Game

Scott Garrabrant13 Jun 2018 23:34 UTC
84 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

New­comb’s Prob­lem and Re­gret of Rationality

Eliezer Yudkowsky31 Jan 2008 19:36 UTC
113 points
609 comments10 min readLW link

What does it mean to ap­ply de­ci­sion the­ory?

abramdemski8 Jul 2020 20:31 UTC
40 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Com­ment on Co­her­ence ar­gu­ments do not im­ply goal di­rected behavior

Ronny6 Dec 2019 9:30 UTC
29 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Troll Bridge

abramdemski23 Aug 2019 18:36 UTC
72 points
47 comments12 min readLW link

5 Ax­ioms of De­ci­sion Making

Vaniver1 Dec 2011 22:22 UTC
50 points
64 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory: An out­line of some up­com­ing posts

AnnaSalamon25 Aug 2009 7:34 UTC
30 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Con­fu­sion about New­comb is con­fu­sion about counterfactuals

AnnaSalamon25 Aug 2009 20:01 UTC
53 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory: Why we need to re­duce “could”, “would”, “should”

AnnaSalamon2 Sep 2009 9:23 UTC
27 points
48 comments4 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory: Why Pearl helps re­duce “could” and “would”, but still leaves us with at least three alternatives

AnnaSalamon6 Sep 2009 6:10 UTC
43 points
72 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part I

orthonormal24 Mar 2012 16:01 UTC
36 points
90 comments7 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part II

orthonormal6 Apr 2012 18:59 UTC
25 points
27 comments7 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part III

orthonormal14 Apr 2012 19:34 UTC
35 points
54 comments9 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries, Part 3.5: Halt, Melt and Catch Fire

orthonormal26 Aug 2012 22:40 UTC
49 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries, Part 3.75: Hang On, I Think This Works After All

orthonormal6 Sep 2012 16:23 UTC
37 points
45 comments6 min readLW link

CDT=EDT=UDT

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 23:46 UTC
37 points
16 comments12 min readLW link

Con­cep­tual Prob­lems with UDT and Policy Selection

abramdemski28 Jun 2019 23:50 UTC
51 points
16 comments9 min readLW link

On the pur­poses of de­ci­sion the­ory research

Wei_Dai25 Jul 2019 7:18 UTC
62 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Two More De­ci­sion The­ory Prob­lems for Humans

Wei_Dai4 Jan 2019 9:00 UTC
55 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

Com­mon mis­takes peo­ple make when think­ing about de­ci­sion theory

cousin_it27 Mar 2012 20:03 UTC
66 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

In­gre­di­ents of Time­less De­ci­sion Theory

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Aug 2009 1:10 UTC
52 points
227 comments7 min readLW link

What is Wei Dai’s Up­date­less De­ci­sion The­ory?

AlephNeil19 May 2010 10:16 UTC
52 points
66 comments7 min readLW link

Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory: Prob­lems I Can’t Solve

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Jul 2009 0:02 UTC
54 points
156 comments6 min readLW link

Com­ment on de­ci­sion theory

Rob Bensinger9 Sep 2018 20:13 UTC
69 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

An in­tro­duc­tion to de­ci­sion theory

[deleted]13 Aug 2010 9:09 UTC
25 points
29 comments6 min readLW link

New­comb’s Prob­lem: A prob­lem for Causal De­ci­sion Theories

[deleted]16 Aug 2010 11:25 UTC
11 points
121 comments4 min readLW link

For­mal­iz­ing New­comb’s

cousin_it5 Apr 2009 15:39 UTC
21 points
117 comments1 min readLW link

A mechanis­tic model of meditation

Kaj_Sotala6 Nov 2019 21:37 UTC
106 points
8 comments21 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tors ex­ist: CDT go­ing bonkers… forever

Stuart_Armstrong14 Jan 2020 16:19 UTC
41 points
30 comments1 min readLW link

ACDT: a hack-y acausal de­ci­sion theory

Stuart_Armstrong15 Jan 2020 17:22 UTC
46 points
16 comments7 min readLW link

Refer­ence Post: Triv­ial De­ci­sion Problem

Chris_Leong15 Feb 2020 17:13 UTC
16 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

What makes coun­ter­fac­tu­als com­pa­rable?

Chris_Leong24 Apr 2020 22:47 UTC
11 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

For­mal Open Prob­lem in De­ci­sion Theory

Scott Garrabrant29 Nov 2018 3:25 UTC
34 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

The Ubiquitous Con­verse Law­vere Problem

Scott Garrabrant29 Nov 2018 3:16 UTC
21 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

(A → B) → A

Scott Garrabrant11 Sep 2018 22:38 UTC
45 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Pri­son­ers’ Dilemma with Costs to Modeling

Scott Garrabrant5 Jun 2018 4:51 UTC
107 points
20 comments7 min readLW link

New­comblike prob­lems are the norm

So8res24 Sep 2014 18:41 UTC
74 points
111 comments7 min readLW link

Model­ing nat­u­ral­ized de­ci­sion prob­lems in lin­ear logic

jessicata6 May 2020 0:15 UTC
14 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

[Question] What is the sub­jec­tive ex­pe­rience of free will for agents?

G Gordon Worley III2 Apr 2020 15:53 UTC
10 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ities Small Enough To Ig­nore: An at­tack on Pas­cal’s Mugging

Kaj_Sotala16 Sep 2015 10:45 UTC
27 points
176 comments5 min readLW link

UDT can learn an­thropic probabilities

cousin_it24 Jun 2018 18:04 UTC
54 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Solve Psy-Kosh’s non-an­thropic problem

cousin_it20 Dec 2010 21:24 UTC
61 points
116 comments1 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Para­dox: PD with Three Im­plies Chaos?

orthonormal27 Aug 2011 19:22 UTC
41 points
56 comments4 min readLW link

Con­se­quen­tial­ism Need Not Be Nearsighted

orthonormal2 Sep 2011 7:37 UTC
77 points
119 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Para­dox: An­swer Key

orthonormal5 Sep 2011 23:13 UTC
10 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Sec­tion 7: Foun­da­tions of Ra­tional Agency

JesseClifton22 Dec 2019 2:05 UTC
14 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

De­ci­sions are not about chang­ing the world, they are about learn­ing what world you live in

shminux28 Jul 2018 8:41 UTC
35 points
69 comments11 min readLW link

Dutch-Book­ing CDT

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 0:10 UTC
25 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] When is CDT Dutch-Book­able?

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 18:54 UTC
23 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

How to Mea­sure Anything

lukeprog7 Aug 2013 4:05 UTC
92 points
52 comments22 min readLW link

Refer­ences & Re­sources for LessWrong

XiXiDu10 Oct 2010 14:54 UTC
146 points
106 comments20 min readLW link

How I Lost 100 Pounds Us­ing TDT

Zvi14 Mar 2011 15:50 UTC
112 points
242 comments4 min readLW link

Mul­ti­verse-wide Co­op­er­a­tion via Cor­re­lated De­ci­sion Making

Kaj_Sotala20 Aug 2017 12:01 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(foundational-research.org)

Bounded ver­sions of Gödel’s and Löb’s theorems

cousin_it27 Jun 2012 18:28 UTC
52 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

Com­press­ing Real­ity to Math

Vaniver15 Dec 2011 0:07 UTC
33 points
7 comments8 min readLW link

Mea­sures, Risk, Death, and War

Vaniver20 Dec 2011 23:37 UTC
17 points
14 comments8 min readLW link

The Joys of Con­ju­gate Priors

TCB21 May 2011 2:41 UTC
62 points
24 comments5 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity, knowl­edge, and meta-probability

David_Chapman17 Sep 2013 0:02 UTC
56 points
73 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion-the­o­retic prob­lems and The­o­ries; An (In­com­plete) com­par­a­tive list

somervta11 Jul 2018 2:59 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Zero-Knowl­edge Cooperation

bryjnar25 Oct 2017 5:35 UTC
16 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Time­less Modesty?

abramdemski24 Nov 2017 11:12 UTC
16 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Ba­sic In­framea­sure Theory

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 8:02 UTC
20 points
10 comments25 min readLW link

[Question] Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging: Why should you pay?

Chris_Leong17 Dec 2019 22:16 UTC
5 points
59 comments3 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing the Coun­ter­fac­tual Pri­soner’s Dilemma to Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Chris_Leong16 Sep 2020 10:34 UTC
9 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

For­mal vs. Effec­tive Pre-Commitment

Chris_Leong27 Aug 2018 12:04 UTC
12 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What De­ci­sion The­ory is Im­plied By Pre­dic­tive Pro­cess­ing?

johnswentworth28 Sep 2020 17:20 UTC
52 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Treat­ing an­thropic self­ish prefer­ences as an ex­ten­sion of TDT

Manfred1 Jan 2015 0:43 UTC
13 points
16 comments11 min readLW link

Selfish prefer­ences and self-modification

Manfred14 Jan 2015 8:42 UTC
10 points
24 comments2 min readLW link

Kid­nap­ping and the game of Chicken

Manfred3 Nov 2013 6:29 UTC
23 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Time in Carte­sian Frames

Scott Garrabrant11 Nov 2020 20:25 UTC
46 points
16 comments7 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesi­anism Unwrapped

adamShimi20 Jan 2021 13:35 UTC
19 points
0 comments24 min readLW link

What I’d change about differ­ent philos­o­phy fields

Rob Bensinger8 Mar 2021 18:25 UTC
55 points
52 comments4 min readLW link

Mo­dal Bar­gain­ing Agents

orthonormal16 Apr 2015 22:19 UTC
4 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Why 1-box­ing doesn’t im­ply back­wards causation

Chris_Leong25 Mar 2021 2:32 UTC
7 points
13 comments4 min readLW link

The Many Faces of In­fra-Beliefs

Diffractor6 Apr 2021 10:43 UTC
15 points
0 comments63 min readLW link

My Cur­rent Take on Counterfactuals

abramdemski9 Apr 2021 17:51 UTC
49 points
13 comments24 min readLW link

“Don’t even think about hell”

emmab2 May 2020 8:06 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Mo­ral­ity vs re­lated concepts

MichaelA7 Jan 2020 10:47 UTC
26 points
17 comments8 min readLW link

Mo­ral un­cer­tainty vs re­lated concepts

MichaelA11 Jan 2020 10:03 UTC
26 points
13 comments16 min readLW link

Mak­ing de­ci­sions when both morally and em­piri­cally uncertain

MichaelA2 Jan 2020 7:20 UTC
13 points
14 comments20 min readLW link

Mak­ing de­ci­sions un­der moral uncertainty

MichaelA30 Dec 2019 1:49 UTC
15 points
26 comments17 min readLW link

Mo­ral un­cer­tainty: What kind of ‘should’ is in­volved?

MichaelA13 Jan 2020 12:13 UTC
14 points
11 comments13 min readLW link

Dis­solv­ing Con­fu­sion around Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

scasper5 Jan 2020 6:38 UTC
22 points
12 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] 3-P Group op­ti­mal for dis­cus­sion?

AiresJL13 Jul 2020 22:23 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Re­pro­gram­ming De­ci­sion Theory

lukeprog10 Sep 2012 1:35 UTC
18 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

The cor­rect re­sponse to un­cer­tainty is *not* half-speed

AnnaSalamon15 Jan 2016 22:55 UTC
162 points
44 comments3 min readLW link

Beyond Astro­nom­i­cal Waste

Wei_Dai7 Jun 2018 21:04 UTC
110 points
41 comments3 min readLW link

Prob­lems in AI Align­ment that philoso­phers could po­ten­tially con­tribute to

Wei_Dai17 Aug 2019 17:38 UTC
70 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

The Dar­win Results

Zvi25 Nov 2017 13:30 UTC
44 points
10 comments5 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Im­plicit extortion

paulfchristiano13 Apr 2018 16:33 UTC
29 points
16 comments6 min readLW link
(ai-alignment.com)

Sim­plified Poker

Zvi4 Jun 2018 15:50 UTC
41 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Against the Lin­ear Utility Hy­poth­e­sis and the Lev­er­age Penalty

AlexMennen14 Dec 2017 18:38 UTC
38 points
47 comments11 min readLW link

Pavlov Generalizes

abramdemski20 Feb 2019 9:03 UTC
64 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

TDT for Humans

alkjash28 Feb 2018 5:40 UTC
23 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(radimentary.wordpress.com)

EDT solves 5 and 10 with con­di­tional oracles

jessicata30 Sep 2018 7:57 UTC
59 points
8 comments13 min readLW link

Bayesi­ans vs. Barbarians

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Apr 2009 23:45 UTC
77 points
284 comments8 min readLW link

Com­par­i­son of de­ci­sion the­o­ries (with a fo­cus on log­i­cal-coun­ter­fac­tual de­ci­sion the­o­ries)

riceissa16 Mar 2019 21:15 UTC
61 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­ging: Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Oct 2007 23:37 UTC
73 points
353 comments4 min readLW link

“UDT2” and “against UD+ASSA”

Wei_Dai12 May 2019 4:18 UTC
49 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

You May Already Be A Sinner

Scott Alexander9 Mar 2009 23:18 UTC
49 points
37 comments3 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­gle Pays

Zvi16 Dec 2017 20:40 UTC
26 points
17 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mugging

Vladimir_Nesov19 Mar 2009 6:08 UTC
69 points
296 comments2 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­gle: In­finites­i­mal Pri­ors and Strong Evidence

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 May 2013 0:43 UTC
67 points
406 comments26 min readLW link

Hofs­tadter’s Superrationality

gwern21 Apr 2012 13:33 UTC
68 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

A model of UDT with a con­crete prior over log­i­cal statements

Benya28 Aug 2012 21:45 UTC
62 points
24 comments4 min readLW link

New­comb’s prob­lem hap­pened to me

Academian26 Mar 2010 18:31 UTC
51 points
99 comments3 min readLW link

(Ir)ra­tio­nal­ity of Pas­cal’s wager

filozof3377@gmial.com3 Aug 2020 20:57 UTC
3 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

A model of UDT with a halt­ing oracle

cousin_it18 Dec 2011 14:18 UTC
66 points
102 comments2 min readLW link

More on the Lin­ear Utility Hy­poth­e­sis and the Lev­er­age Prior

AlexMennen26 Feb 2018 23:53 UTC
15 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

What a re­duc­tion of “could” could look like

cousin_it12 Aug 2010 17:41 UTC
80 points
111 comments2 min readLW link

Knowl­edge is Freedom

Scott Garrabrant9 Feb 2018 5:24 UTC
29 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Up­date­less­ness as a Ro­bust Del­e­ga­tion Problem

Scott Garrabrant27 Oct 2017 21:16 UTC
30 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Parfit’s Es­cape (Filk)

G Gordon Worley III29 Mar 2019 2:31 UTC
37 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Black­mail Equation

Stuart_Armstrong10 Mar 2010 14:46 UTC
27 points
87 comments5 min readLW link

Two Types of Updatelessness

abramdemski15 Feb 2018 20:19 UTC
22 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Dis­tance Func­tions are Hard

Grue_Slinky13 Aug 2019 17:33 UTC
31 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

Two Alter­na­tives to Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

jessicata1 Apr 2020 9:48 UTC
30 points
61 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Policy Alignment

abramdemski30 Jun 2018 0:24 UTC
47 points
25 comments8 min readLW link

Is risk aver­sion re­ally ir­ra­tional ?

kilobug31 Jan 2012 20:34 UTC
50 points
65 comments9 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing New­comb’s Problem

ErickBall11 Nov 2019 22:52 UTC
34 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Another at­tempt to ex­plain UDT

cousin_it14 Nov 2010 16:52 UTC
52 points
54 comments2 min readLW link

The Happy Dance Problem

abramdemski17 Nov 2017 0:47 UTC
19 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

UDT as a Nash Equilibrium

cousin_it6 Feb 2018 14:08 UTC
18 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

A prob­lem with Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory (TDT)

Gary_Drescher4 Feb 2010 18:47 UTC
44 points
140 comments3 min readLW link

Solv­ing the two en­velopes problem

rstarkov9 Aug 2012 13:42 UTC
45 points
33 comments4 min readLW link

Prob­le­matic Prob­lems for TDT

drnickbone29 May 2012 15:41 UTC
60 points
301 comments4 min readLW link

The Ab­sent-Minded Driver

Wei_Dai16 Sep 2009 0:51 UTC
41 points
150 comments3 min readLW link

Com­plete Class: Con­se­quen­tial­ist Foundations

abramdemski11 Jul 2018 1:57 UTC
39 points
34 comments13 min readLW link

“Cheat­ing Death in Da­m­as­cus” Solu­tion to the Fermi Para­dox

avturchin30 Jun 2018 12:00 UTC
12 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Self-Similar­ity Experiment

Telofy15 Aug 2020 13:19 UTC
12 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Let’s Dis­cuss Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

Chris_Leong23 Jul 2018 7:24 UTC
29 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

List of Prob­lems That Mo­ti­vated UDT

Wei_Dai6 Jun 2012 0:26 UTC
42 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] A way to beat su­per­ra­tional/​EDT agents?

Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir17 Aug 2020 14:33 UTC
5 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

The Pre­dic­tion Prob­lem: A Var­i­ant on New­comb’s

Chris_Leong4 Jul 2018 7:40 UTC
25 points
11 comments9 min readLW link

L-zom­bies! (L-zom­bies?)

Benya7 Feb 2014 18:30 UTC
48 points
72 comments7 min readLW link

Why you must max­i­mize ex­pected utility

Benya13 Dec 2012 1:11 UTC
45 points
76 comments21 min readLW link

Mixed-Strat­egy Rat­ifi­a­bil­ity Im­plies CDT=EDT

abramdemski31 Oct 2017 5:56 UTC
11 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Ex­plicit Op­ti­miza­tion of Global Strat­egy (Fix­ing a Bug in UDT1)

Wei_Dai19 Feb 2010 1:30 UTC
38 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Which text­book would you recom­mend to learn de­ci­sion the­ory?

supermartingale29 Jan 2019 20:48 UTC
27 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A Prob­lem About Bar­gain­ing and Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Wei_Dai21 Mar 2012 21:03 UTC
45 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

What Pro­gram Are You?

RobinHanson12 Oct 2009 0:29 UTC
35 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory and Meta-Cir­cu­lar De­ci­sion Theory

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Aug 2009 22:07 UTC
31 points
37 comments10 min readLW link

Asymp­totic De­ci­sion The­ory (Im­proved Wri­teup)

Diffractor27 Sep 2018 5:17 UTC
38 points
14 comments13 min readLW link

AI co­op­er­a­tion in practice

cousin_it30 Jul 2010 16:21 UTC
37 points
166 comments1 min readLW link

For­mu­las of ar­ith­metic that be­have like de­ci­sion agents

Nisan3 Feb 2012 2:58 UTC
35 points
34 comments11 min readLW link

Con­trol­ling Con­stant Programs

Vladimir_Nesov5 Sep 2010 13:45 UTC
34 points
33 comments5 min readLW link

Does TDT pay in Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging?

Bongo29 Nov 2010 21:31 UTC
4 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­am­ple de­ci­sion the­ory prob­lem: “Agent simu­lates pre­dic­tor”

cousin_it19 May 2011 15:16 UTC
37 points
76 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum ver­sus log­i­cal bombs

Stuart_Armstrong17 Nov 2013 15:14 UTC
27 points
45 comments1 min readLW link

Quan­tum im­mor­tal­ity: Is de­cline of mea­sure com­pen­sated by merg­ing timelines?

avturchin11 Dec 2018 19:39 UTC
9 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum the­ory can­not con­sis­tently de­scribe the use of itself

avturchin20 Sep 2018 22:04 UTC
7 points
16 comments1 min readLW link
(foundations.ethz.ch)

Quan­tum Rus­sian Roulette

Christian_Szegedy18 Sep 2009 8:49 UTC
7 points
63 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty: a re­jec­tion of the MMEU rule

So8res26 Aug 2014 3:03 UTC
39 points
9 comments15 min readLW link

Ev­i­den­tial De­ci­sion The­ory, Selec­tion Bias, and Refer­ence Classes

Qiaochu_Yuan8 Jul 2013 5:16 UTC
33 points
128 comments6 min readLW link

Philo­soph­i­cal self-ratification

jessicata3 Feb 2020 22:48 UTC
23 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

For­mal­is­ing de­ci­sion the­ory is hard

Lanrian23 Aug 2019 3:27 UTC
15 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Build a Causal De­ci­sion Theorist

michaelcohen23 Sep 2019 20:43 UTC
1 point
14 comments4 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.3 (Up­dates, De­ci­sion The­ory)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:49 UTC
7 points
0 comments31 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.2 (Iso­mor­phism to Ex­pec­ta­tions)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:52 UTC
7 points
0 comments46 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.1 (The­o­rem 1, Lem­mas)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:54 UTC
7 points
0 comments36 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion To The In­fra-Bayesi­anism Sequence

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 8:02 UTC
75 points
42 comments13 min readLW link

Belief Func­tions And De­ci­sion Theory

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 8:00 UTC
12 points
8 comments39 min readLW link

The Ul­ti­mate New­comb’s Problem

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Sep 2013 2:03 UTC
30 points
116 comments1 min readLW link

A Model of Ra­tional Policy: When Is a Goal “Good”?

FCCC10 Oct 2020 17:05 UTC
2 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

A full ex­pla­na­tion to New­comb’s para­dox.

solomon alon12 Oct 2020 16:48 UTC
−6 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

The Achilles Heel Hy­poth­e­sis for AI

scasper13 Oct 2020 14:35 UTC
20 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian Uncer­tainty and Am­bi­guity Aver­sion: Motivation

So8res21 Jul 2014 20:32 UTC
35 points
44 comments13 min readLW link

Thoughts from a Two Boxer

jaek23 Aug 2019 0:24 UTC
17 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

The Evil Ge­nie Puzzle

Chris_Leong25 Jul 2018 6:12 UTC
18 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

In mem­o­ryless Carte­sian en­vi­ron­ments, ev­ery UDT policy is a CDT+SIA policy

jessicata11 Jun 2016 4:05 UTC
24 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] What’s been writ­ten about the na­ture of “son-of-CDT”?

Liam Donovan30 Nov 2019 21:03 UTC
16 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Win­ning is Hard

whpearson3 Apr 2009 17:02 UTC
−10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Agent Si­mu­lates Pre­dic­tor a “fair” prob­lem?

Chris_Leong24 Jan 2019 13:18 UTC
22 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

An ex­am­ple of self-fulfilling spu­ri­ous proofs in UDT

cousin_it25 Mar 2012 11:47 UTC
33 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Thoughts on the 5-10 Problem

Tofly18 Jul 2019 18:56 UTC
18 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Notes on Prudence

David_Gross19 Nov 2020 16:14 UTC
11 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

UDT might not pay a Coun­ter­fac­tual Mugger

winwonce21 Nov 2020 23:27 UTC
5 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Shane Legg on prospect the­ory and com­pu­ta­tional finance

Roko21 Jun 2009 17:57 UTC
16 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

The ap­pli­ca­tion of the sec­re­tary prob­lem to real life dating

Elo29 Sep 2015 22:28 UTC
7 points
48 comments6 min readLW link

The Fixed Sum Fallacy

cousin_it3 Jul 2009 13:01 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

How Less­wrong helped me make $25K: A ra­tio­nal pric­ing strategy

kareemabukhadra21 Dec 2020 20:20 UTC
50 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Plan­ning in AGI Systems

Koen.Holtman3 Feb 2021 13:54 UTC
5 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Graph­i­cal World Models, Coun­ter­fac­tu­als, and Ma­chine Learn­ing Agents

Koen.Holtman17 Feb 2021 11:07 UTC
6 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

A non-log­a­r­ith­mic ar­gu­ment for Kelly

Bunthut4 Mar 2021 16:21 UTC
24 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Ends Don’t Jus­tify Means (Among Hu­mans)

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2008 21:00 UTC
94 points
94 comments4 min readLW link

Learn­ing Rus­sian Roulette

Bunthut2 Apr 2021 18:56 UTC
23 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

Phy­lac­tery De­ci­sion Theory

Bunthut2 Apr 2021 20:55 UTC
14 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Risk Bud­gets vs. Ba­sic De­ci­sion Theory

Vlad Firoiu5 Apr 2021 21:55 UTC
11 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Iden­ti­fi­a­bil­ity Prob­lem for Su­per­ra­tional De­ci­sion Theories

Bunthut9 Apr 2021 20:33 UTC
17 points
13 comments2 min readLW link
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