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De­ci­sion Theory

TagLast edit: 19 Mar 2023 21:34 UTC by Diabloto96

Decision theory is the study of principles and algorithms for making correct decisions—that is, decisions that allow an agent to achieve better outcomes with respect to its goals. Every action at least implicitly represents a decision under uncertainty: in a state of partial knowledge, something has to be done, even if that something turns out to be nothing (call it “the null action”). Even if you don’t know how you make decisions, decisions do get made, and so there has to be some underlying mechanism. What is it? And how can it be done better? Decision theory has the answers.

Note: this page needs to be updated with content regarding Functional Decision Theory, the latest theory from MIRI.

Related: Game Theory, Robust Agents, Utility Functions

A core idea in decision theory is that of expected utility maximization, usually intractable to directly calculate in practice, but an invaluable theoretical concept. An agent assigns utility to every possible outcome: a real number representing the goodness or desirability of that outcome. The mapping of outcomes to utilities is called the agent’s utility function. (The utility function is said to be invariant under affine transformations: that is, the utilities can be scaled or translated by a constant while resulting in all the same decisions.) For every action that the agent could take, sum over the utilities of the various possible outcomes weighted by their probability: this is the expected utility of the action, and the action with the highest expected utility is to be chosen.

Thought experiments

The limitations and pathologies of decision theories can be analyzed by considering the decisions they suggest in the certain idealized situations that stretch the limits of decision theory’s applicability. Some of the thought experiments more frequently discussed on LW include:

Commonly discussed decision theories

Standard theories well-known in academia:

Theories invented by researchers associated with MIRI and LW:

Other decision theories are listed in A comprehensive list of decision theories.

Blog posts

Sequence by AnnaSalamon

Sequence by orthonormal (Decision Theories: A Semi-Formal Analysis)

See also

Can you con­trol the past?

Joe Carlsmith27 Aug 2021 19:39 UTC
172 points
90 comments47 min readLW link1 review

UDT shows that de­ci­sion the­ory is more puz­zling than ever

Wei Dai13 Sep 2023 12:26 UTC
197 points
51 comments1 min readLW link

De­ci­sion Theory

31 Oct 2018 18:41 UTC
117 points
45 comments1 min readLW link

Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory: A New The­ory of In­stru­men­tal Rationality

ESRogs20 Oct 2017 8:09 UTC
16 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

Chris­ti­ano de­ci­sion the­ory excerpt

Rob Bensinger29 Sep 2019 2:55 UTC
65 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Dutch-Book­ing CDT: Re­vised Argument

abramdemski27 Oct 2020 4:31 UTC
51 points
24 comments16 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory FAQ

lukeprog28 Feb 2013 14:15 UTC
117 points
484 comments58 min readLW link

An Ortho­dox Case Against Utility Functions

abramdemski7 Apr 2020 19:18 UTC
152 points
65 comments8 min readLW link2 reviews

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Less Wrong Primer

orthonormal13 Mar 2012 23:31 UTC
109 points
174 comments9 min readLW link

Co­her­ent de­ci­sions im­ply con­sis­tent utilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 May 2019 21:33 UTC
148 points
81 comments26 min readLW link3 reviews

Co­her­ence ar­gu­ments do not en­tail goal-di­rected behavior

Rohin Shah3 Dec 2018 3:26 UTC
129 points
69 comments7 min readLW link3 reviews

Towards a New De­ci­sion Theory

Wei Dai13 Aug 2009 5:31 UTC
83 points
148 comments6 min readLW link

Embed­ded Agency (full-text ver­sion)

15 Nov 2018 19:49 UTC
181 points
17 comments54 min readLW link

LCDT, A My­opic De­ci­sion Theory

3 Aug 2021 22:41 UTC
57 points
50 comments15 min readLW link

Ro­bust Co­op­er­a­tion in the Pri­soner’s Dilemma

orthonormal7 Jun 2013 8:30 UTC
120 points
147 comments7 min readLW link

A Cri­tique of Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

wdmacaskill13 Sep 2019 19:23 UTC
86 points
56 comments20 min readLW link

MIRI/​OP ex­change about de­ci­sion theory

Rob Bensinger25 Aug 2021 22:44 UTC
54 points
7 comments10 min readLW link

Three rea­sons to cooperate

paulfchristiano24 Dec 2022 17:40 UTC
82 points
14 comments10 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

What is causal­ity to an ev­i­den­tial de­ci­sion the­o­rist?

paulfchristiano17 Apr 2022 16:00 UTC
45 points
26 comments5 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

De­ci­sion the­ory and zero-sum game the­ory, NP and PSPACE

jessicata24 May 2018 8:03 UTC
56 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

“Do X be­cause de­ci­sion the­ory” ~= “Do X be­cause bayes the­o­rem”

lc14 Apr 2023 20:57 UTC
39 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

[Question] Are ya win­ning, son?

Nathan11239 Aug 2022 0:06 UTC
14 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

Or­di­nary and un­or­di­nary de­ci­sion theory

JonasMoss2 Mar 2022 11:39 UTC
3 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

Re­sponses to ap­par­ent ra­tio­nal­ist con­fu­sions about game /​ de­ci­sion theory

Anthony DiGiovanni30 Aug 2023 22:02 UTC
140 points
14 comments12 min readLW link

5 Ax­ioms of De­ci­sion Making

Vaniver1 Dec 2011 22:22 UTC
50 points
63 comments5 min readLW link

Troll Bridge

abramdemski23 Aug 2019 18:36 UTC
84 points
59 comments12 min readLW link

Com­ment on Co­her­ence ar­gu­ments do not im­ply goal di­rected behavior

Ronny Fernandez6 Dec 2019 9:30 UTC
30 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

What does it mean to ap­ply de­ci­sion the­ory?

abramdemski8 Jul 2020 20:31 UTC
53 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

New­comb’s Prob­lem and Re­gret of Rationality

Eliezer Yudkowsky31 Jan 2008 19:36 UTC
145 points
616 comments10 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging Poker Game

Scott Garrabrant13 Jun 2018 23:34 UTC
111 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory but also Ghosts

eva_20 Nov 2022 13:24 UTC
17 points
21 comments10 min readLW link

How LDT helps re­duce the AI arms race

Tamsin Leake10 Dec 2023 16:21 UTC
70 points
13 comments4 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

Align­ment work in anoma­lous worlds

Tamsin Leake16 Dec 2023 19:34 UTC
24 points
4 comments3 min readLW link
(carado.moe)

De­ci­sion the­ory: An out­line of some up­com­ing posts

AnnaSalamon25 Aug 2009 7:34 UTC
31 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Con­fu­sion about New­comb is con­fu­sion about counterfactuals

AnnaSalamon25 Aug 2009 20:01 UTC
54 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory: Why we need to re­duce “could”, “would”, “should”

AnnaSalamon2 Sep 2009 9:23 UTC
36 points
48 comments4 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory: Why Pearl helps re­duce “could” and “would”, but still leaves us with at least three alternatives

AnnaSalamon6 Sep 2009 6:10 UTC
43 points
72 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part I

orthonormal24 Mar 2012 16:01 UTC
36 points
90 comments7 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part II

orthonormal6 Apr 2012 18:59 UTC
26 points
28 comments7 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part III

orthonormal14 Apr 2012 19:34 UTC
36 points
55 comments9 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries, Part 3.5: Halt, Melt and Catch Fire

orthonormal26 Aug 2012 22:40 UTC
49 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries, Part 3.75: Hang On, I Think This Works After All

orthonormal6 Sep 2012 16:23 UTC
39 points
45 comments6 min readLW link

CDT=EDT=UDT

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 23:46 UTC
39 points
16 comments12 min readLW link

Con­cep­tual Prob­lems with UDT and Policy Selection

abramdemski28 Jun 2019 23:50 UTC
61 points
16 comments9 min readLW link

On the pur­poses of de­ci­sion the­ory research

Wei Dai25 Jul 2019 7:18 UTC
64 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Two More De­ci­sion The­ory Prob­lems for Humans

Wei Dai4 Jan 2019 9:00 UTC
56 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Com­mon mis­takes peo­ple make when think­ing about de­ci­sion theory

cousin_it27 Mar 2012 20:03 UTC
67 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

In­gre­di­ents of Time­less De­ci­sion Theory

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Aug 2009 1:10 UTC
52 points
232 comments7 min readLW link

What is Wei Dai’s Up­date­less De­ci­sion The­ory?

AlephNeil19 May 2010 10:16 UTC
53 points
69 comments7 min readLW link

Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory: Prob­lems I Can’t Solve

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Jul 2009 0:02 UTC
56 points
156 comments6 min readLW link

Com­ment on de­ci­sion theory

Rob Bensinger9 Sep 2018 20:13 UTC
69 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

An in­tro­duc­tion to de­ci­sion theory

[deleted]13 Aug 2010 9:09 UTC
25 points
29 comments6 min readLW link

New­comb’s Prob­lem: A prob­lem for Causal De­ci­sion Theories

[deleted]16 Aug 2010 11:25 UTC
11 points
121 comments4 min readLW link

For­mal­iz­ing New­comb’s

cousin_it5 Apr 2009 15:39 UTC
22 points
117 comments1 min readLW link

A mechanis­tic model of meditation

Kaj_Sotala6 Nov 2019 21:37 UTC
130 points
11 comments21 min readLW link

The Per­spec­tive-based Ex­pla­na­tion to the Reflec­tive In­con­sis­tency Paradox

dadadarren26 Jan 2024 19:00 UTC
10 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

All About Con­cave and Con­vex Agents

mako yass24 Mar 2024 21:37 UTC
59 points
22 comments8 min readLW link

UDT1.01: The Story So Far (1/​10)

Diffractor27 Mar 2024 23:22 UTC
36 points
6 comments13 min readLW link

[Aspira­tion-based de­signs] 1. In­for­mal in­tro­duc­tion

28 Apr 2024 13:00 UTC
41 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

UDT1.01: Lo­cal Affine­ness and In­fluence Mea­sures (2/​10)

Diffractor31 Mar 2024 7:35 UTC
24 points
0 comments14 min readLW link

UDT1.01: Plannable and Un­planned Ob­ser­va­tions (3/​10)

Diffractor12 Apr 2024 5:24 UTC
31 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

UDT1.01 Essen­tial Mis­cel­lanea (4/​10)

Diffractor14 Apr 2024 2:23 UTC
17 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

[Cos­mol­ogy Talks] New Prob­a­bil­ity Ax­ioms Could Fix Cos­mol­ogy’s Mul­ti­verse (Par­tially) - Sylvia Wenmackers

mako yass14 Apr 2024 1:26 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(www.youtube.com)

UDT1.01: Log­i­cal In­duc­tors and Im­plicit Beliefs (5/​10)

Diffractor18 Apr 2024 8:39 UTC
31 points
1 comment19 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tors ex­ist: CDT go­ing bonkers… forever

Stuart_Armstrong14 Jan 2020 16:19 UTC
43 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

ACDT: a hack-y acausal de­ci­sion theory

Stuart_Armstrong15 Jan 2020 17:22 UTC
48 points
16 comments7 min readLW link

Strong Cheap Signals

trevor29 Mar 2023 14:18 UTC
29 points
3 comments2 min readLW link
(betonit.substack.com)

GPT-4 is eas­ily con­trol­led/​ex­ploited with tricky de­ci­sion the­o­retic dilem­mas.

scasper14 Apr 2023 19:39 UTC
6 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

Alien Axiology

snerx20 Apr 2023 0:27 UTC
3 points
2 comments5 min readLW link

Refer­ence Post: Triv­ial De­ci­sion The­ory Problem

Chris_Leong15 Feb 2020 17:13 UTC
16 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

The Un­ex­pected Clanging

Chris_Leong18 May 2023 14:47 UTC
14 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

What makes coun­ter­fac­tu­als com­pa­rable?

Chris_Leong24 Apr 2020 22:47 UTC
11 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

For­mal Open Prob­lem in De­ci­sion Theory

Scott Garrabrant29 Nov 2018 3:25 UTC
36 points
28 comments4 min readLW link

The Ubiquitous Con­verse Law­vere Problem

Scott Garrabrant29 Nov 2018 3:16 UTC
21 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

(A → B) → A

Scott Garrabrant11 Sep 2018 22:38 UTC
70 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Pri­son­ers’ Dilemma with Costs to Modeling

Scott Garrabrant5 Jun 2018 4:51 UTC
123 points
20 comments7 min readLW link

New­comblike prob­lems are the norm

So8res24 Sep 2014 18:41 UTC
83 points
111 comments8 min readLW link

Model­ing nat­u­ral­ized de­ci­sion prob­lems in lin­ear logic

jessicata6 May 2020 0:15 UTC
14 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Game The­ory with­out Argmax [Part 1]

Cleo Nardo11 Nov 2023 15:59 UTC
53 points
16 comments19 min readLW link

Game The­ory with­out Argmax [Part 2]

Cleo Nardo11 Nov 2023 16:02 UTC
31 points
14 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] What is the sub­jec­tive ex­pe­rience of free will for agents?

Gordon Seidoh Worley2 Apr 2020 15:53 UTC
10 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ities Small Enough To Ig­nore: An at­tack on Pas­cal’s Mugging

Kaj_Sotala16 Sep 2015 10:45 UTC
27 points
176 comments5 min readLW link

UDT can learn an­thropic probabilities

cousin_it24 Jun 2018 18:04 UTC
54 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Solve Psy-Kosh’s non-an­thropic problem

cousin_it20 Dec 2010 21:24 UTC
66 points
116 comments1 min readLW link

FixDT

abramdemski30 Nov 2023 21:57 UTC
55 points
9 comments13 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Para­dox: PD with Three Im­plies Chaos?

orthonormal27 Aug 2011 19:22 UTC
42 points
56 comments4 min readLW link

Con­se­quen­tial­ism Need Not Be Nearsighted

orthonormal2 Sep 2011 7:37 UTC
83 points
119 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Para­dox: An­swer Key

orthonormal5 Sep 2011 23:13 UTC
10 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Sec­tion 7: Foun­da­tions of Ra­tional Agency

JesseClifton22 Dec 2019 2:05 UTC
14 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

De­ci­sions are not about chang­ing the world, they are about learn­ing what world you live in

shminux28 Jul 2018 8:41 UTC
39 points
71 comments11 min readLW link

Dutch-Book­ing CDT

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 0:10 UTC
26 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] When is CDT Dutch-Book­able?

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 18:54 UTC
23 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

How to Mea­sure Anything

lukeprog7 Aug 2013 4:05 UTC
117 points
55 comments22 min readLW link

Refer­ences & Re­sources for LessWrong

XiXiDu10 Oct 2010 14:54 UTC
162 points
104 comments20 min readLW link

How I Lost 100 Pounds Us­ing TDT

Zvi14 Mar 2011 15:50 UTC
128 points
242 comments4 min readLW link

Mul­ti­verse-wide Co­op­er­a­tion via Cor­re­lated De­ci­sion Making

Kaj_Sotala20 Aug 2017 12:01 UTC
5 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(foundational-research.org)

Bounded ver­sions of Gödel’s and Löb’s theorems

cousin_it27 Jun 2012 18:28 UTC
52 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

The cor­rect re­sponse to un­cer­tainty is *not* half-speed

AnnaSalamon15 Jan 2016 22:55 UTC
261 points
45 comments3 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory with the Magic Parts Highlighted

moridinamael16 May 2023 17:39 UTC
174 points
24 comments5 min readLW link

Com­press­ing Real­ity to Math

Vaniver15 Dec 2011 0:07 UTC
34 points
7 comments8 min readLW link

Mea­sures, Risk, Death, and War

Vaniver20 Dec 2011 23:37 UTC
17 points
14 comments8 min readLW link

The Joys of Con­ju­gate Priors

TCB21 May 2011 2:41 UTC
63 points
24 comments5 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity, knowl­edge, and meta-probability

David_Chapman17 Sep 2013 0:02 UTC
60 points
73 comments5 min readLW link

Ex­ploit­ing New­comb’s Game Show

carterallen25 May 2023 4:01 UTC
8 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

De­ci­sion-the­o­retic prob­lems and The­o­ries; An (In­com­plete) com­par­a­tive list

somervta11 Jul 2018 2:59 UTC
36 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Zero-Knowl­edge Cooperation

bryjnar25 Oct 2017 5:35 UTC
16 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Time­less Modesty?

abramdemski24 Nov 2017 11:12 UTC
17 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Ba­sic In­framea­sure Theory

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 8:02 UTC
36 points
19 comments25 min readLW link

New­comb II: Newer and Comb-ier

Nathaniel Monson13 Jul 2023 18:49 UTC
0 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging: Why should you pay?

Chris_Leong17 Dec 2019 22:16 UTC
6 points
59 comments3 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing the Coun­ter­fac­tual Pri­soner’s Dilemma to Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Chris_Leong16 Sep 2020 10:34 UTC
9 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

Refer­ence Post: For­mal vs. Effec­tive Pre-Commitment

Chris_Leong27 Aug 2018 12:04 UTC
16 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What De­ci­sion The­ory is Im­plied By Pre­dic­tive Pro­cess­ing?

johnswentworth28 Sep 2020 17:20 UTC
56 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Foun­da­tions of Govern­ment Policy

FCCC10 Oct 2020 17:05 UTC
2 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

A short calcu­la­tion about a Twit­ter poll

Ege Erdil14 Aug 2023 19:48 UTC
62 points
64 comments11 min readLW link

Treat­ing an­thropic self­ish prefer­ences as an ex­ten­sion of TDT

Manfred1 Jan 2015 0:43 UTC
13 points
16 comments11 min readLW link

Selfish prefer­ences and self-modification

Manfred14 Jan 2015 8:42 UTC
12 points
24 comments2 min readLW link

Kid­nap­ping and the game of Chicken

Manfred3 Nov 2013 6:29 UTC
23 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Do agents with (mu­tu­ally known) iden­ti­cal util­ity func­tions but ir­rec­on­cilable knowl­edge some­times fight?

mako yass23 Aug 2023 8:13 UTC
14 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

New­comb Variant

lsusr29 Aug 2023 7:02 UTC
25 points
22 comments1 min readLW link

Any­one want to de­bate pub­li­cly about FDT?

omnizoid29 Aug 2023 3:45 UTC
13 points
31 comments1 min readLW link

Time in Carte­sian Frames

Scott Garrabrant11 Nov 2020 20:25 UTC
48 points
16 comments7 min readLW link

Con­tra Heighn Con­tra Me Con­tra Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory

omnizoid11 Sep 2023 19:49 UTC
−10 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

Where do self­ish val­ues come from?

Wei Dai18 Nov 2011 23:52 UTC
67 points
62 comments2 min readLW link

Reflex­ive de­ci­sion the­ory is an un­solved problem

Richard_Kennaway17 Sep 2023 14:15 UTC
39 points
27 comments4 min readLW link

The om­ni­zoid—Heighn FDT De­bate #5

Heighn18 Sep 2023 11:54 UTC
4 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] What causes a de­ci­sion the­ory to be used?

Dagon25 Sep 2023 16:33 UTC
8 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesi­anism Unwrapped

adamShimi20 Jan 2021 13:35 UTC
54 points
0 comments24 min readLW link

What I’d change about differ­ent philos­o­phy fields

Rob Bensinger8 Mar 2021 18:25 UTC
57 points
52 comments4 min readLW link

Mo­dal Bar­gain­ing Agents

orthonormal16 Apr 2015 22:19 UTC
14 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

Why 1-box­ing doesn’t im­ply back­wards causation

Chris_Leong25 Mar 2021 2:32 UTC
7 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

The Many Faces of In­fra-Beliefs

Diffractor6 Apr 2021 10:43 UTC
30 points
6 comments63 min readLW link

My Cur­rent Take on Counterfactuals

abramdemski9 Apr 2021 17:51 UTC
53 points
57 comments25 min readLW link

Sav­ing Time

Scott Garrabrant18 May 2021 20:11 UTC
156 points
20 comments4 min readLW link1 review

The Na­ture of Counterfactuals

Chris_Leong5 Jun 2021 9:18 UTC
15 points
18 comments4 min readLW link

The dumb­est kid in the world (joke)

CronoDAS6 Jun 2021 2:57 UTC
23 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

I’m no longer sure that I buy dutch book ar­gu­ments and this makes me skep­ti­cal of the “util­ity func­tion” abstraction

Eli Tyre22 Jun 2021 3:53 UTC
46 points
29 comments4 min readLW link

A Qual­i­ta­tive and In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Ex­pected Value

Adam Zerner10 Aug 2021 3:31 UTC
11 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

Meta De­ci­sion The­ory and New­comb’s Problem

wdmacaskill5 Mar 2013 1:29 UTC
10 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Or­a­cle pre­dic­tions don’t ap­ply to non-ex­is­tent worlds

Chris_Leong15 Sep 2021 9:44 UTC
10 points
25 comments3 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Contracts

harsimony16 Sep 2021 15:20 UTC
10 points
4 comments9 min readLW link
(harsimony.wordpress.com)

EDT with up­dat­ing dou­ble counts

paulfchristiano12 Oct 2021 4:40 UTC
56 points
12 comments7 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Nate Soares on the Ul­ti­mate New­comb’s Problem

Rob Bensinger31 Oct 2021 19:42 UTC
57 points
20 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Is Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory still an ac­tive area of re­search?

Grant Demaree13 Nov 2021 0:30 UTC
6 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Slightly ad­vanced de­ci­sion the­ory 102: Four rea­sons not to be a (naive) util­ity maximizer

Jan23 Nov 2021 11:02 UTC
10 points
1 comment15 min readLW link
(universalprior.substack.com)

We need a the­ory of an­thropic mea­sure binding

mako yass30 Dec 2021 7:22 UTC
27 points
42 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Break­down—Per­sonal At­tempt at a Review

Jake Arft-Guatelli14 Dec 2021 0:40 UTC
4 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

$1000 USD prize—Cir­cu­lar Depen­dency of Counterfactuals

Chris_Leong1 Jan 2022 9:43 UTC
37 points
102 comments4 min readLW link

An ex­ten­sion of Au­mann’s ap­proach for re­duc­ing game the­ory to bayesian de­ci­sion the­ory to in­clude EDT and UDT like agents

Karl Brisebois9 Feb 2022 4:17 UTC
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

An In­tu­itive In­tro­duc­tion to Ev­i­den­tial De­ci­sion Theory

Heighn7 Mar 2022 16:06 UTC
5 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

On ex­pected util­ity, part 4: Dutch books, Cox, and Com­plete Class

Joe Carlsmith24 Mar 2022 7:51 UTC
10 points
2 comments19 min readLW link

Real­ism and Rationality

bmgarfinkel16 Sep 2019 3:09 UTC
45 points
49 comments23 min readLW link

In­fra-Bayesi­anism Distil­la­tion: Real­iz­abil­ity and De­ci­sion Theory

Thomas Larsen26 May 2022 21:57 UTC
40 points
9 comments18 min readLW link

[Question] Do FDT (or similar) recom­mend repa­ra­tions?

David Scott Krueger (formerly: capybaralet)29 Apr 2022 17:34 UTC
13 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Al­gorith­mic for­mal­iza­tion of FDT?

shminux8 May 2022 1:36 UTC
12 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory and dy­namic inconsistency

paulfchristiano3 Jul 2022 22:20 UTC
80 points
33 comments10 min readLW link
(sideways-view.com)

Im­manuel Kant and the De­ci­sion The­ory App Store

Daniel Kokotajlo10 Jul 2022 16:04 UTC
88 points
12 comments5 min readLW link

Mak­ing de­ci­sions us­ing mul­ti­ple worldviews

Richard_Ngo13 Jul 2022 19:15 UTC
50 points
10 comments11 min readLW link

Less Threat-Depen­dent Bar­gain­ing Solu­tions?? (3/​2)

Diffractor20 Aug 2022 2:19 UTC
88 points
7 comments6 min readLW link

An is­sue with MacAskill’s Ev­i­den­tial­ist’s Wager

Martín Soto21 Sep 2022 22:02 UTC
1 point
9 comments4 min readLW link

Threat-Re­sis­tant Bar­gain­ing Me­ga­post: In­tro­duc­ing the ROSE Value

Diffractor28 Sep 2022 1:20 UTC
143 points
19 comments53 min readLW link2 reviews

Max­i­mal lot­ter­ies for value learning

ViktoriaMalyasova16 Oct 2022 23:44 UTC
17 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory does not im­ply that we get to have nice things

So8res18 Oct 2022 3:04 UTC
165 points
58 comments26 min readLW link2 reviews

De­ci­sions: On­tolog­i­cally Shift­ing to Determinism

Chris_Leong21 Dec 2022 12:41 UTC
8 points
11 comments6 min readLW link

As­sign­ing Praise and Blame: De­cou­pling Episte­mol­ogy and De­ci­sion Theory

27 Jan 2023 18:16 UTC
59 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Policy Selec­tion Solves Most Problems

abramdemski1 Dec 2017 0:35 UTC
21 points
7 comments13 min readLW link

Mo­dal Fix­point Co­op­er­a­tion with­out Löb’s Theorem

Andrew_Critch5 Feb 2023 0:58 UTC
133 points
32 comments3 min readLW link

Payor’s Lemma in Nat­u­ral Language

Andrew_Critch2 Mar 2023 12:22 UTC
60 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Notes on Prudence

David Gross19 Nov 2020 16:14 UTC
14 points
1 comment6 min readLW link

Another at­tempt to ex­plain UDT

cousin_it14 Nov 2010 16:52 UTC
69 points
56 comments2 min readLW link

Refram­ing Acausal Trol­ling as Acausal Patronage

StrivingForLegibility23 Jan 2024 3:04 UTC
14 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

A prob­lem with “play­ing chicken with the uni­verse” as an ap­proach to UDT

Karl8 Mar 2013 2:34 UTC
35 points
16 comments1 min readLW link

No, EDT Did Not Get It Right All Along: Why the Coin Flip Creation Prob­lem Is Irrelevant

Heighn30 Mar 2022 18:41 UTC
6 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

The Happy Dance Problem

abramdemski17 Nov 2017 0:47 UTC
19 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

UDT as a Nash Equilibrium

cousin_it6 Feb 2018 14:08 UTC
18 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

A prob­lem with Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory (TDT)

Gary_Drescher4 Feb 2010 18:47 UTC
46 points
140 comments3 min readLW link

Solv­ing the two en­velopes problem

rstarkov9 Aug 2012 13:42 UTC
45 points
33 comments4 min readLW link

Prob­le­matic Prob­lems for TDT

drnickbone29 May 2012 15:41 UTC
62 points
293 comments4 min readLW link

The Ab­sent-Minded Driver

Wei Dai16 Sep 2009 0:51 UTC
45 points
150 comments3 min readLW link

Com­plete Class: Con­se­quen­tial­ist Foundations

abramdemski11 Jul 2018 1:57 UTC
53 points
34 comments13 min readLW link

Best-Re­spond­ing Is Not Always the Best Response

StrivingForLegibility4 Jan 2024 23:30 UTC
10 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

“Cheat­ing Death in Da­m­as­cus” Solu­tion to the Fermi Para­dox

avturchin30 Jun 2018 12:00 UTC
14 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Self-Similar­ity Experiment

Dawn Drescher15 Aug 2020 13:19 UTC
12 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Let’s Dis­cuss Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

Chris_Leong23 Jul 2018 7:24 UTC
29 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

List of Prob­lems That Mo­ti­vated UDT

Wei Dai6 Jun 2012 0:26 UTC
42 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] A way to beat su­per­ra­tional/​EDT agents?

Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir17 Aug 2020 14:33 UTC
5 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

The Pre­dic­tion Prob­lem: A Var­i­ant on New­comb’s

Chris_Leong4 Jul 2018 7:40 UTC
25 points
11 comments9 min readLW link

Mo­ral strate­gies at differ­ent ca­pa­bil­ity levels

Richard_Ngo27 Jul 2022 18:50 UTC
112 points
14 comments5 min readLW link
(thinkingcomplete.blogspot.com)

L-zom­bies! (L-zom­bies?)

Benya7 Feb 2014 18:30 UTC
52 points
74 comments7 min readLW link

Dath Ilani Rule of Law

David Udell10 May 2022 6:17 UTC
18 points
25 comments4 min readLW link

Open Prob­lems with Myopia

10 Mar 2021 18:38 UTC
65 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

Why you must max­i­mize ex­pected utility

Benya13 Dec 2012 1:11 UTC
50 points
76 comments21 min readLW link

Mixed-Strat­egy Rat­ifi­a­bil­ity Im­plies CDT=EDT

abramdemski31 Oct 2017 5:56 UTC
12 points
2 comments9 min readLW link

An ex­pla­na­tion of de­ci­sion theories

metachirality1 Jun 2023 3:42 UTC
20 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Four lev­els of un­der­stand­ing de­ci­sion theory

Max H1 Jun 2023 20:55 UTC
12 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] Which text­book would you recom­mend to learn de­ci­sion the­ory?

supermartingale29 Jan 2019 20:48 UTC
27 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A Prob­lem About Bar­gain­ing and Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Wei Dai21 Mar 2012 21:03 UTC
47 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

What Pro­gram Are You?

RobinHanson12 Oct 2009 0:29 UTC
36 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory and Meta-Cir­cu­lar De­ci­sion Theory

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Aug 2009 22:07 UTC
41 points
37 comments10 min readLW link

Asymp­totic De­ci­sion The­ory (Im­proved Wri­teup)

Diffractor27 Sep 2018 5:17 UTC
39 points
14 comments13 min readLW link

AI co­op­er­a­tion in practice

cousin_it30 Jul 2010 16:21 UTC
45 points
166 comments1 min readLW link

For­mu­las of ar­ith­metic that be­have like de­ci­sion agents

Nisan3 Feb 2012 2:58 UTC
35 points
34 comments11 min readLW link

Con­trol­ling Con­stant Programs

Vladimir_Nesov5 Sep 2010 13:45 UTC
34 points
33 comments5 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­ing The Long Game Pro­ject: Im­prov­ing De­ci­sion-Mak­ing Through Table­top Ex­er­cises and Si­mu­lated Experience

Dan Stuart13 Jun 2023 21:45 UTC
4 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Does TDT pay in Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging?

Bongo29 Nov 2010 21:31 UTC
4 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cally Blind: the an­thropic shadow is re­flec­tively inconsistent

Christopher King29 Jun 2023 2:36 UTC
40 points
38 comments10 min readLW link

Ex­am­ple de­ci­sion the­ory prob­lem: “Agent simu­lates pre­dic­tor”

cousin_it19 May 2011 15:16 UTC
45 points
76 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum ver­sus log­i­cal bombs

Stuart_Armstrong17 Nov 2013 15:14 UTC
27 points
45 comments1 min readLW link

Quan­tum im­mor­tal­ity: Is de­cline of mea­sure com­pen­sated by merg­ing timelines?

avturchin11 Dec 2018 19:39 UTC
9 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum the­ory can­not con­sis­tently de­scribe the use of itself

avturchin20 Sep 2018 22:04 UTC
7 points
16 comments1 min readLW link
(foundations.ethz.ch)

Quan­tum Rus­sian Roulette

Christian_Szegedy18 Sep 2009 8:49 UTC
8 points
64 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty: a re­jec­tion of the MMEU rule

So8res26 Aug 2014 3:03 UTC
41 points
9 comments15 min readLW link

Ex­plor­ing Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory (FDT) and a mod­ified ver­sion (ModFDT)

MiguelDev5 Jul 2023 14:06 UTC
8 points
11 comments15 min readLW link

Open-minded updatelessness

10 Jul 2023 11:08 UTC
65 points
21 comments12 min readLW link

Ev­i­den­tial De­ci­sion The­ory, Selec­tion Bias, and Refer­ence Classes

Qiaochu_Yuan8 Jul 2013 5:16 UTC
32 points
128 comments6 min readLW link

Philo­soph­i­cal self-ratification

jessicata3 Feb 2020 22:48 UTC
23 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

For­mal­is­ing de­ci­sion the­ory is hard

Lukas Finnveden23 Aug 2019 3:27 UTC
17 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Build a Causal De­ci­sion Theorist

michaelcohen9 Mar 2023 13:31 UTC
−2 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.3 (Up­dates, De­ci­sion The­ory)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:49 UTC
8 points
0 comments31 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.2 (Iso­mor­phism to Ex­pec­ta­tions)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:52 UTC
8 points
0 comments46 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.1 (The­o­rem 1, Lem­mas)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:54 UTC
8 points
0 comments36 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion To The In­fra-Bayesi­anism Sequence

26 Aug 2020 20:31 UTC
109 points
62 comments14 min readLW link2 reviews

Us­ing Threats to Achieve So­cially Op­ti­mal Outcomes

StrivingForLegibility4 Jan 2024 23:30 UTC
8 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Belief Func­tions And De­ci­sion Theory

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 8:00 UTC
17 points
7 comments39 min readLW link

The Ul­ti­mate New­comb’s Problem

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Sep 2013 2:03 UTC
46 points
116 comments1 min readLW link

Re­port on mod­el­ing ev­i­den­tial co­op­er­a­tion in large worlds

Johannes Treutlein12 Jul 2023 16:37 UTC
44 points
3 comments1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

You’re Not One “You”—How De­ci­sion The­o­ries Are Talk­ing Past Each Other

keith_wynroe9 Jan 2023 1:21 UTC
27 points
11 comments8 min readLW link

Proper scor­ing rules don’t guaran­tee pre­dict­ing fixed points

16 Dec 2022 18:22 UTC
68 points
8 comments21 min readLW link

Unify­ing Bar­gain­ing No­tions (1/​2)

Diffractor25 Jul 2022 0:28 UTC
204 points
41 comments16 min readLW link

Wanted: No­ta­tion for credal resilience

PeterH31 Jul 2022 7:35 UTC
21 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How would Log­i­cal De­ci­sion The­o­ries ad­dress the Psy­chopath But­ton?

Nathan11237 Aug 2022 15:19 UTC
5 points
33 comments1 min readLW link

Op­ti­mi­sa­tion Mea­sures: Desider­ata, Im­pos­si­bil­ity, Proposals

7 Aug 2023 15:52 UTC
35 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

Acausal Now: We could to­tally acausally bar­gain with aliens at our cur­rent tech level if desired

Christopher King9 Aug 2023 0:50 UTC
1 point
5 comments4 min readLW link

So­cial Choice The­ory and Log­i­cal Handshakes

StrivingForLegibility29 Dec 2023 3:49 UTC
14 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

A full ex­pla­na­tion to New­comb’s para­dox.

solomon alon12 Oct 2020 16:48 UTC
−6 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

The Achilles Heel Hy­poth­e­sis for AI

scasper13 Oct 2020 14:35 UTC
20 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian Uncer­tainty and Am­bi­guity Aver­sion: Motivation

So8res21 Jul 2014 20:32 UTC
44 points
44 comments13 min readLW link

[Question] How would two su­per­in­tel­li­gent AIs in­ter­act, if they are un­al­igned with each other?

Nathan11239 Aug 2022 18:58 UTC
4 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Do ad­vance­ments in De­ci­sion The­ory point to­wards moral ab­solutism?

Nathan112311 Aug 2022 0:59 UTC
0 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Bridg­ing Ex­pected Utility Max­i­miza­tion and Optimization

Whispermute5 Aug 2022 8:18 UTC
25 points
5 comments14 min readLW link

Thoughts from a Two Boxer

jaek23 Aug 2019 0:24 UTC
18 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Perfect Predictors

aditya malik12 Aug 2022 11:51 UTC
2 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

The Evil Ge­nie Puzzle

Chris_Leong25 Jul 2018 6:12 UTC
18 points
44 comments1 min readLW link

Im­pli­ca­tions of ev­i­den­tial co­op­er­a­tion in large worlds

Lukas Finnveden23 Aug 2023 0:43 UTC
39 points
4 comments17 min readLW link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Dis­cov­er­ing Agents

zac_kenton18 Aug 2022 17:33 UTC
73 points
11 comments6 min readLW link

In mem­o­ryless Carte­sian en­vi­ron­ments, ev­ery UDT policy is a CDT+SIA policy

jessicata11 Jun 2016 4:05 UTC
25 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

In­cor­po­rat­ing Jus­tice The­ory into De­ci­sion Theory

StrivingForLegibility21 Jan 2024 19:17 UTC
13 points
20 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] What’s been writ­ten about the na­ture of “son-of-CDT”?

Liam Donovan30 Nov 2019 21:03 UTC
16 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Win­ning is Hard

whpearson3 Apr 2009 17:02 UTC
−10 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Ra­tional Agents Co­op­er­ate in the Pri­soner’s Dilemma

Isaac King2 Sep 2023 6:15 UTC
16 points
66 comments12 min readLW link

Hert­ford, Sour­but (ra­tio­nal­ity les­sons from Univer­sity Challenge)

Oliver Sourbut4 Sep 2023 18:44 UTC
28 points
7 comments14 min readLW link
(www.oliversourbut.net)

De­ci­sion the­ory is not policy the­ory is not agent theory

Cole Wyeth5 Sep 2023 1:38 UTC
15 points
4 comments6 min readLW link
(colewyeth.com)

De­ci­sion The­ory: A (Nor­ma­tive) Introduction

Pareto Optimal6 Sep 2023 8:22 UTC
−1 points
1 comment3 min readLW link
(paretooptimal.substack.com)

Ini­tial Thoughts on Dis­solv­ing “Could­ness”

DragonGod22 Sep 2022 21:23 UTC
6 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

[Question] Is Agent Si­mu­lates Pre­dic­tor a “fair” prob­lem?

Chris_Leong24 Jan 2019 13:18 UTC
22 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Break­ing New­comb’s Prob­lem with Non-Halt­ing states

Slimepriestess4 Sep 2022 4:01 UTC
18 points
9 comments5 min readLW link

Un­bounded util­ity func­tions and precommitment

MichaelStJules10 Sep 2022 16:16 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Even if we lose, we win

Pi Rogers15 Jan 2024 2:15 UTC
23 points
17 comments4 min readLW link

FDT defects in a re­al­is­tic Twin Pri­son­ers’ Dilemma

Sylvester Kollin15 Sep 2022 8:55 UTC
37 points
1 comment26 min readLW link

I’m tak­ing a course on game the­ory and am faced with this ques­tion. What’s the ra­tio­nal de­ci­sion?

Dalton Mabery14 Sep 2022 0:27 UTC
0 points
12 comments1 min readLW link

A New Bayesian De­ci­sion Theory

Pareto Optimal20 Sep 2023 9:36 UTC
−6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(paretooptimal.substack.com)

Train­ing goals for large lan­guage models

Johannes Treutlein18 Jul 2022 7:09 UTC
28 points
5 comments19 min readLW link

An ex­am­ple of self-fulfilling spu­ri­ous proofs in UDT

cousin_it25 Mar 2012 11:47 UTC
33 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Thoughts on the 5-10 Problem

Tofly18 Jul 2019 18:56 UTC
18 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Why We Use Money? - A Walrasian View

Savio Coelho3 Oct 2023 12:02 UTC
4 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

Ar­gu­ments for util­i­tar­i­anism are im­pos­si­bil­ity ar­gu­ments un­der un­bounded prospects

MichaelStJules7 Oct 2023 21:08 UTC
7 points
7 comments21 min readLW link

Per­spec­tive Based Rea­son­ing Could Ab­solve CDT

dadadarren8 Oct 2023 11:22 UTC
4 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

UDT might not pay a Coun­ter­fac­tual Mugger

winwonce21 Nov 2020 23:27 UTC
5 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

Shane Legg on prospect the­ory and com­pu­ta­tional finance

Roko21 Jun 2009 17:57 UTC
16 points
9 comments1 min readLW link

The ap­pli­ca­tion of the sec­re­tary prob­lem to real life dating

Elo29 Sep 2015 22:28 UTC
7 points
48 comments6 min readLW link

The Fixed Sum Fallacy

cousin_it3 Jul 2009 13:01 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Which Anaes­thetic To Choose?

dadadarren14 Oct 2023 14:55 UTC
10 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

How Less­wrong helped me make $25K: A ra­tio­nal pric­ing strategy

kareemabukhadra21 Dec 2020 20:20 UTC
50 points
21 comments3 min readLW link

What can thought-ex­per­i­ments do?

Cleo Nardo17 Jan 2023 0:35 UTC
16 points
3 comments5 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Plan­ning in AGI Systems

Koen.Holtman3 Feb 2021 13:54 UTC
10 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Graph­i­cal World Models, Coun­ter­fac­tu­als, and Ma­chine Learn­ing Agents

Koen.Holtman17 Feb 2021 11:07 UTC
6 points
2 comments10 min readLW link

A non-log­a­r­ith­mic ar­gu­ment for Kelly

Bunthut4 Mar 2021 16:21 UTC
24 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

An Un­ex­pected GPT-3 De­ci­sion in a Sim­ple Gam­ble

hatta_afiq25 Sep 2022 16:46 UTC
8 points
4 comments1 min readLW link

Ends Don’t Jus­tify Means (Among Hu­mans)

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Oct 2008 21:00 UTC
190 points
97 comments4 min readLW link

FDT is not di­rectly com­pa­rable to CDT and EDT

Sylvester Kollin29 Sep 2022 14:42 UTC
36 points
8 comments21 min readLW link

Heuris­tics on bias to ac­tion ver­sus sta­tus quo?

Farkas28 Feb 2023 12:45 UTC
4 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Learn­ing Rus­sian Roulette

Bunthut2 Apr 2021 18:56 UTC
24 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

Phy­lac­tery De­ci­sion Theory

Bunthut2 Apr 2021 20:55 UTC
14 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

Risk Bud­gets vs. Ba­sic De­ci­sion Theory

Vlad Firoiu5 Apr 2021 21:55 UTC
11 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Iden­ti­fi­a­bil­ity Prob­lem for Su­per­ra­tional De­ci­sion Theories

Bunthut9 Apr 2021 20:33 UTC
17 points
16 comments2 min readLW link

Defin­ing Myopia

abramdemski19 Oct 2019 21:32 UTC
32 points
18 comments8 min readLW link

[Sketch] Val­idity Cri­te­rion for Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

DragonGod11 Oct 2022 13:31 UTC
6 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Some Var­i­ants of Sleep­ing Beauty

1 Mar 2023 16:51 UTC
34 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Don’t Jump or I’ll...

Double2 Mar 2023 2:58 UTC
13 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Notes on “Can you con­trol the past”

So8res20 Oct 2022 3:41 UTC
57 points
41 comments21 min readLW link

A Bench­mark for De­ci­sion Theories

StrivingForLegibility11 Jan 2024 18:54 UTC
10 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Log­i­cal De­ci­sion The­o­ries: Our fi­nal failsafe?

Noosphere8925 Oct 2022 12:51 UTC
−7 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(www.lesswrong.com)

A New Re­sponse To New­comb’s Paradox

Daniel Birnbaum15 Apr 2024 20:38 UTC
0 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Tak­ing into ac­count prefer­ences of past selves

Jacob G-W15 Apr 2024 13:15 UTC
13 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

Should we max­i­mize the Geo­met­ric Ex­pec­ta­tion of Utility?

A.H.17 Apr 2024 10:37 UTC
5 points
17 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Is CDT with pre­com­mit­ment enough?

martinkunev25 May 2024 21:40 UTC
10 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

How to be a messy thinker

invertedpassion15 May 2024 11:57 UTC
6 points
0 comments7 min readLW link

A sur­vey of polls on New­comb’s problem

Caspar Oesterheld20 Sep 2017 16:50 UTC
3 points
8 comments1 min readLW link
(casparoesterheld.com)

Hu­mans do acausal co­or­di­na­tion all the time

Adam Jermyn2 Nov 2022 14:40 UTC
57 points
35 comments3 min readLW link

[Aspira­tion-based de­signs] 2. For­mal frame­work, ba­sic algorithm

28 Apr 2024 13:02 UTC
16 points
2 comments16 min readLW link

Delta’s of Change

Jonas Kgomo19 Mar 2024 21:03 UTC
1 point
0 comments4 min readLW link

Everett branches, in­ter-light cone trade and other alien mat­ters: Ap­pendix to “An ECL ex­plainer”

24 Feb 2024 23:09 UTC
17 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

GPT-4 al­ign­ing with aca­sual de­ci­sion the­ory when in­structed to play games, but in­cludes a CDT ex­pla­na­tion that’s in­cor­rect if they differ

Christopher King23 Mar 2023 16:16 UTC
7 points
4 comments8 min readLW link

Fur­ther con­sid­er­a­tions on the Ev­i­den­tial­ist’s Wager

Martín Soto3 Nov 2022 20:06 UTC
3 points
9 comments8 min readLW link

Co­op­er­at­ing with aliens and AGIs: An ECL explainer

24 Feb 2024 22:58 UTC
53 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Ad­ver­sar­ial Pri­ors: Not Pay­ing Peo­ple to Lie to You

eva_10 Nov 2022 2:29 UTC
22 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

De­ci­sion mak­ing un­der model am­bi­guity, moral un­cer­tainty, and other agents with free will?

Jobst Heitzig13 Nov 2022 12:50 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Naive TDT, Bayes nets, and coun­ter­fac­tual mugging

Stuart_Armstrong23 Oct 2012 15:58 UTC
26 points
39 comments3 min readLW link

Smok­ing le­sion as a coun­terex­am­ple to CDT

Stuart_Armstrong26 Oct 2012 12:08 UTC
21 points
51 comments1 min readLW link

Real-world New­comb-like Prob­lems

SilasBarta25 Mar 2011 20:44 UTC
25 points
35 comments2 min readLW link

A Ra­tion­al­ity Con­di­tion for CDT Is That It Equal EDT (Part 1)

abramdemski4 Oct 2018 4:32 UTC
21 points
14 comments9 min readLW link

Two New New­comb Variants

eva_14 Nov 2022 14:01 UTC
26 points
22 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] CDT vs. EDT on Deterrence

notfnofn24 Feb 2024 15:41 UTC
1 point
9 comments1 min readLW link

SBF x LoL

NicholasKross15 Nov 2022 20:24 UTC
17 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

The Bind­ing of Isaac & Trans­par­ent New­comb’s Prob­lem

suvjectibity22 Feb 2024 18:56 UTC
−11 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

A Defense of Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

Heighn12 Nov 2021 20:59 UTC
21 points
221 comments10 min readLW link

“Don’t even think about hell”

emmab2 May 2020 8:06 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­plicit Op­ti­miza­tion of Global Strat­egy (Fix­ing a Bug in UDT1)

Wei Dai19 Feb 2010 1:30 UTC
55 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

SBF, Pas­cal’s Mug­ging, and a Pro­posed Solution

Cole Killian18 Nov 2022 18:39 UTC
−1 points
5 comments5 min readLW link
(colekillian.com)

Ques­tion/​Is­sue with the 5/​10 Problem

acgt29 Nov 2021 10:45 UTC
6 points
3 comments3 min readLW link

Mo­ral­ity vs re­lated concepts

MichaelA7 Jan 2020 10:47 UTC
26 points
17 comments8 min readLW link

Mo­ral un­cer­tainty vs re­lated concepts

MichaelA11 Jan 2020 10:03 UTC
26 points
13 comments16 min readLW link

Mak­ing de­ci­sions when both morally and em­piri­cally uncertain

MichaelA2 Jan 2020 7:20 UTC
13 points
14 comments20 min readLW link

Mak­ing de­ci­sions un­der moral uncertainty

MichaelA30 Dec 2019 1:49 UTC
21 points
26 comments17 min readLW link

Mo­ral un­cer­tainty: What kind of ‘should’ is in­volved?

MichaelA13 Jan 2020 12:13 UTC
14 points
11 comments13 min readLW link

Dis­solv­ing Con­fu­sion around Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

scasper5 Jan 2020 6:38 UTC
32 points
24 comments9 min readLW link

Disen­tan­gling four mo­ti­va­tions for act­ing in ac­cor­dance with UDT

Julian Stastny5 Nov 2023 21:26 UTC
33 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

Im­ple­ment­ing De­ci­sion Theory

justinpombrio7 Nov 2023 17:55 UTC
21 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

An­throp­i­cal Para­doxes are Para­doxes of Prob­a­bil­ity Theory

Ape in the coat6 Dec 2023 8:16 UTC
50 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Why does ex­pected util­ity mat­ter?

Marco Discendenti25 Dec 2023 14:47 UTC
18 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

Storable Votes with a Pay as you win mechanism: a con­tri­bu­tion for in­sti­tu­tional design

Arturo Macias11 Mar 2024 15:58 UTC
17 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

The lat­tice of par­tial updatelessness

Martín Soto10 Feb 2024 17:34 UTC
21 points
5 comments5 min readLW link

Pre­dictable Defect-Co­op­er­ate?

quetzal_rainbow18 Nov 2023 15:38 UTC
7 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Ex­plor­ing De­ci­sion The­o­ries With Coun­ter­fac­tu­als and Dy­namic Agent Self-Pointers

JoshuaOSHickman18 Dec 2021 21:50 UTC
2 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Wor­ld­build­ing ex­er­cise: The High­way­verse.

Yair Halberstadt22 Dec 2021 6:47 UTC
13 points
13 comments11 min readLW link

Fair Col­lec­tive Effi­cient Altruism

Jobst Heitzig25 Nov 2022 9:38 UTC
2 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

A Re­ac­tion to Wolf­gang Sch­warz’s “On Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory”

Heighn5 Jan 2022 9:00 UTC
7 points
9 comments7 min readLW link

Self-Refer­en­tial Prob­a­bil­is­tic Logic Ad­mits the Payor’s Lemma

Yudhister Kumar28 Nov 2023 10:27 UTC
80 points
13 comments6 min readLW link

Up­date­less­ness doesn’t solve most problems

Martín Soto8 Feb 2024 17:30 UTC
125 points
43 comments12 min readLW link

[Question] 3-P Group op­ti­mal for dis­cus­sion?

AiresJL13 Jul 2020 22:23 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Cri­tiquing Scasper’s Defi­ni­tion of Sub­junc­tive Dependence

Heighn10 Jan 2022 16:22 UTC
1 point
8 comments2 min readLW link

Why Bet Kelly?

Joe Zimmerman29 Nov 2022 18:47 UTC
16 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

New­comb’s Lot­tery Problem

Heighn27 Jan 2022 16:28 UTC
1 point
9 comments1 min readLW link

A Pos­si­ble Re­s­olu­tion To Spu­ri­ous Counterfactuals

JoshuaOSHickman6 Dec 2021 18:26 UTC
15 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

[Question] How to deal with the sense of de­mo­ti­va­tion that comes from think­ing about de­ter­minism?

SpectrumDT7 Feb 2024 10:53 UTC
13 points
71 comments1 min readLW link

Reflec­tive con­sis­tency, ran­dom­ized de­ci­sions, and the dan­gers of un­re­al­is­tic thought experiments

Radford Neal7 Dec 2023 3:33 UTC
34 points
21 comments6 min readLW link

Im­pos­si­bil­ity re­sults for un­bounded utilities

paulfchristiano2 Feb 2022 3:52 UTC
166 points
109 comments8 min readLW link1 review

In­cor­po­rat­ing Mechanism De­sign Into De­ci­sion Theory

StrivingForLegibility26 Jan 2024 18:25 UTC
17 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Ba­sic Con­cepts in De­ci­sion Theory

Heighn7 Mar 2022 16:05 UTC
3 points
1 comment2 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mechanism Networks

StrivingForLegibility30 Jan 2024 20:30 UTC
4 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

To Boldly Code

StrivingForLegibility26 Jan 2024 18:25 UTC
25 points
4 comments3 min readLW link

Dis­tance Func­tions are Hard

Grue_Slinky13 Aug 2019 17:33 UTC
31 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

Defend­ing Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

Heighn8 Feb 2022 14:58 UTC
4 points
10 comments11 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Re­pro­gram­ming De­ci­sion Theory

lukeprog10 Sep 2012 1:35 UTC
18 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Con­di­tions for Su­per­ra­tional­ity-mo­ti­vated Co­op­er­a­tion in a one-shot Pri­soner’s Dilemma

Jim Buhler19 Dec 2022 15:00 UTC
24 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

In defense of an­throp­i­cally up­dat­ing EDT

Anthony DiGiovanni5 Mar 2024 6:21 UTC
17 points
16 comments15 min readLW link

An In­tu­itive In­tro­duc­tion to Causal De­ci­sion Theory

Heighn7 Mar 2022 16:05 UTC
3 points
3 comments6 min readLW link

An In­tu­itive In­tro­duc­tion to Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

Heighn7 Mar 2022 16:07 UTC
19 points
3 comments7 min readLW link

A Rephras­ing Of and Foot­note To An Embed­ded Agency Proposal

JoshuaOSHickman9 Mar 2022 18:13 UTC
5 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Beyond Astro­nom­i­cal Waste

Wei Dai7 Jun 2018 21:04 UTC
125 points
41 comments3 min readLW link

Prob­lems in AI Align­ment that philoso­phers could po­ten­tially con­tribute to

Wei Dai17 Aug 2019 17:38 UTC
78 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

The Dar­win Results

Zvi25 Nov 2017 13:30 UTC
52 points
10 comments5 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Im­plicit extortion

paulfchristiano13 Apr 2018 16:33 UTC
29 points
16 comments6 min readLW link
(ai-alignment.com)

Sim­plified Poker

Zvi4 Jun 2018 15:50 UTC
34 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Against the Lin­ear Utility Hy­poth­e­sis and the Lev­er­age Penalty

AlexMennen14 Dec 2017 18:38 UTC
39 points
47 comments11 min readLW link

Pavlov Generalizes

abramdemski20 Feb 2019 9:03 UTC
67 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

TDT for Humans

alkjash28 Feb 2018 5:40 UTC
26 points
7 comments5 min readLW link
(radimentary.wordpress.com)

EDT solves 5 and 10 with con­di­tional oracles

jessicata30 Sep 2018 7:57 UTC
59 points
8 comments13 min readLW link

Bayesi­ans vs. Barbarians

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Apr 2009 23:45 UTC
101 points
277 comments8 min readLW link

Com­par­i­son of de­ci­sion the­o­ries (with a fo­cus on log­i­cal-coun­ter­fac­tual de­ci­sion the­o­ries)

riceissa16 Mar 2019 21:15 UTC
77 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­ging: Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Oct 2007 23:37 UTC
107 points
353 comments4 min readLW link

“UDT2” and “against UD+ASSA”

Wei Dai12 May 2019 4:18 UTC
50 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

You May Already Be A Sinner

Scott Alexander9 Mar 2009 23:18 UTC
50 points
37 comments3 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­gle Pays

Zvi16 Dec 2017 20:40 UTC
25 points
17 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mugging

Vladimir_Nesov19 Mar 2009 6:08 UTC
80 points
296 comments2 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­gle: In­finites­i­mal Pri­ors and Strong Evidence

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 May 2013 0:43 UTC
72 points
402 comments26 min readLW link

Avert­ing Catas­tro­phe: De­ci­sion The­ory for COVID-19, Cli­mate Change, and Po­ten­tial Disasters of All Kinds

JakubK2 May 2023 22:50 UTC
10 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Hofs­tadter’s Superrationality

gwern21 Apr 2012 13:33 UTC
70 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

A model of UDT with a con­crete prior over log­i­cal statements

Benya28 Aug 2012 21:45 UTC
62 points
24 comments4 min readLW link

New­comb’s prob­lem hap­pened to me

Academian26 Mar 2010 18:31 UTC
51 points
99 comments3 min readLW link

(Ir)ra­tio­nal­ity of Pas­cal’s wager

filozof3377@gmial.com3 Aug 2020 20:57 UTC
3 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

A model of UDT with a halt­ing oracle

cousin_it18 Dec 2011 14:18 UTC
70 points
102 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Is EDT cor­rect? Does “EDT” == “log­i­cal EDT” == “log­i­cal CDT”?

Vivek Hebbar8 May 2023 2:07 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

More on the Lin­ear Utility Hy­poth­e­sis and the Lev­er­age Prior

AlexMennen26 Feb 2018 23:53 UTC
16 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

Acausal trade nat­u­rally re­sults in the Nash bar­gain­ing solution

Christopher King8 May 2023 18:13 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

What a re­duc­tion of “could” could look like

cousin_it12 Aug 2010 17:41 UTC
83 points
111 comments2 min readLW link

Knowl­edge is Freedom

Scott Garrabrant9 Feb 2018 5:24 UTC
32 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Up­date­less­ness as a Ro­bust Del­e­ga­tion Problem

Scott Garrabrant27 Oct 2017 21:16 UTC
38 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Parfit’s Es­cape (Filk)

Gordon Seidoh Worley29 Mar 2019 2:31 UTC
39 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Black­mail Equation

Stuart_Armstrong10 Mar 2010 14:46 UTC
27 points
87 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] Can we learn much by study­ing the be­havi­our of RL poli­cies?

AidanGoth15 May 2023 12:56 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readLW link

Threat­en­ing to do the im­pos­si­ble: A solu­tion to spu­ri­ous coun­ter­fac­tu­als for func­tional de­ci­sion the­ory via proof theory

Christopher King11 Feb 2023 7:57 UTC
5 points
4 comments5 min readLW link

Two Types of Updatelessness

abramdemski15 Feb 2018 20:19 UTC
23 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Two Alter­na­tives to Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

jessicata1 Apr 2020 9:48 UTC
38 points
61 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Policy Alignment

abramdemski30 Jun 2018 0:24 UTC
50 points
25 comments8 min readLW link

Is risk aver­sion re­ally ir­ra­tional ?

kilobug31 Jan 2012 20:34 UTC
54 points
65 comments9 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing New­comb’s Problem

ErickBall11 Nov 2019 22:52 UTC
34 points
23 comments1 min readLW link