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De­ci­sion Theory

TagLast edit: 1 Oct 2020 21:28 UTC by Ruby

De­ci­sion the­ory is the study of prin­ci­ples and al­gorithms for mak­ing cor­rect de­ci­sions—that is, de­ci­sions that al­low an agent to achieve bet­ter out­comes with re­spect to its goals. Every ac­tion at least im­plic­itly rep­re­sents a de­ci­sion un­der un­cer­tainty: in a state of par­tial knowl­edge, some­thing has to be done, even if that some­thing turns out to be noth­ing (call it “the null ac­tion”). Even if you don’t know how you make de­ci­sions, de­ci­sions do get made, and so there has to be some un­der­ly­ing mechanism. What is it? And how can it be done bet­ter? De­ci­sion the­ory has the an­swers.

Note: this page needs to be up­dated with con­tent re­gard­ing Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory, the lat­est the­ory from MIRI.

Re­lated: Game The­ory, Ro­bust Agents, Utility Functions

A core idea in de­ci­sion the­ory is that of ex­pected util­ity max­i­miza­tion, usu­ally in­tractable to di­rectly calcu­late in prac­tice, but an in­valuable the­o­ret­i­cal con­cept. An agent as­signs util­ity to ev­ery pos­si­ble out­come: a real num­ber rep­re­sent­ing the good­ness or de­sir­a­bil­ity of that out­come. The map­ping of out­comes to util­ities is called the agent’s util­ity func­tion. (The util­ity func­tion is said to be in­var­i­ant un­der af­fine trans­for­ma­tions: that is, the util­ities can be scaled or trans­lated by a con­stant while re­sult­ing in all the same de­ci­sions.) For ev­ery ac­tion that the agent could take, sum over the util­ities of the var­i­ous pos­si­ble out­comes weighted by their prob­a­bil­ity: this is the ex­pected util­ity of the ac­tion, and the ac­tion with the high­est ex­pected util­ity is to be cho­sen.

Thought experiments

The limi­ta­tions and patholo­gies of de­ci­sion the­o­ries can be an­a­lyzed by con­sid­er­ing the de­ci­sions they sug­gest in the cer­tain ideal­ized situ­a­tions that stretch the limits of de­ci­sion the­ory’s ap­pli­ca­bil­ity. Some of the thought ex­per­i­ments more fre­quently dis­cussed on LW in­clude:

Com­monly dis­cussed de­ci­sion theories

Stan­dard the­o­ries well-known in academia:

The­o­ries in­vented by re­searchers as­so­ci­ated with MIRI and LW:

Other de­ci­sion the­o­ries are listed in A com­pre­hen­sive list of de­ci­sion the­o­ries.

Blog posts

Se­quence by AnnaSalamon

Se­quence by or­thonor­mal (De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis)

See also

De­ci­sion Theory

31 Oct 2018 18:41 UTC
102 points
37 comments1 min readLW link

Chris­ti­ano de­ci­sion the­ory excerpt

Rob Bensinger29 Sep 2019 2:55 UTC
60 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Func­tional De­ci­sion The­ory: A New The­ory of In­stru­men­tal Rationality

ESRogs20 Oct 2017 8:09 UTC
36 points
1 comment1 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

Dutch-Book­ing CDT: Re­vised Argument

abramdemski27 Oct 2020 4:31 UTC
46 points
8 comments16 min readLW link

An Ortho­dox Case Against Utility Functions

abramdemski7 Apr 2020 19:18 UTC
118 points
49 comments8 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Less Wrong Primer

orthonormal13 Mar 2012 23:31 UTC
73 points
174 comments9 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory FAQ

lukeprog28 Feb 2013 14:15 UTC
76 points
482 comments58 min readLW link

Co­her­ent de­ci­sions im­ply con­sis­tent utilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky12 May 2019 21:33 UTC
123 points
56 comments26 min readLW link

Co­her­ence ar­gu­ments do not im­ply goal-di­rected behavior

rohinmshah3 Dec 2018 3:26 UTC
79 points
65 comments7 min readLW link2 nominations3 reviews

Towards a New De­ci­sion Theory

Wei_Dai13 Aug 2009 5:31 UTC
59 points
145 comments6 min readLW link

A Cri­tique of Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

wdmacaskill13 Sep 2019 19:23 UTC
98 points
47 comments20 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory and zero-sum game the­ory, NP and PSPACE

jessicata24 May 2018 8:03 UTC
111 points
20 comments4 min readLW link

Embed­ded Agency (full-text ver­sion)

15 Nov 2018 19:49 UTC
119 points
9 comments54 min readLW link

Ro­bust Co­op­er­a­tion in the Pri­soner’s Dilemma

orthonormal7 Jun 2013 8:30 UTC
73 points
146 comments7 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging Poker Game

Scott Garrabrant13 Jun 2018 23:34 UTC
82 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

New­comb’s Prob­lem and Re­gret of Rationality

Eliezer Yudkowsky31 Jan 2008 19:36 UTC
97 points
606 comments10 min readLW link

What does it mean to ap­ply de­ci­sion the­ory?

abramdemski8 Jul 2020 20:31 UTC
42 points
5 comments8 min readLW link

Troll Bridge

abramdemski23 Aug 2019 18:36 UTC
73 points
40 comments12 min readLW link

5 Ax­ioms of De­ci­sion Making

Vaniver1 Dec 2011 22:22 UTC
35 points
61 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory: An out­line of some up­com­ing posts

AnnaSalamon25 Aug 2009 7:34 UTC
30 points
31 comments6 min readLW link

Con­fu­sion about New­comb is con­fu­sion about counterfactuals

AnnaSalamon25 Aug 2009 20:01 UTC
45 points
42 comments2 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory: Why we need to re­duce “could”, “would”, “should”

AnnaSalamon2 Sep 2009 9:23 UTC
26 points
48 comments4 min readLW link

De­ci­sion the­ory: Why Pearl helps re­duce “could” and “would”, but still leaves us with at least three alternatives

AnnaSalamon6 Sep 2009 6:10 UTC
41 points
72 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part I

orthonormal24 Mar 2012 16:01 UTC
24 points
90 comments7 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part II

orthonormal6 Apr 2012 18:59 UTC
16 points
27 comments7 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part III

orthonormal14 Apr 2012 19:34 UTC
23 points
54 comments9 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries, Part 3.5: Halt, Melt and Catch Fire

orthonormal26 Aug 2012 22:40 UTC
31 points
35 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries, Part 3.75: Hang On, I Think This Works After All

orthonormal6 Sep 2012 16:23 UTC
23 points
45 comments6 min readLW link

CDT=EDT=UDT

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 23:46 UTC
42 points
16 comments12 min readLW link

Con­cep­tual Prob­lems with UDT and Policy Selection

abramdemski28 Jun 2019 23:50 UTC
54 points
16 comments9 min readLW link

On the pur­poses of de­ci­sion the­ory research

Wei_Dai25 Jul 2019 7:18 UTC
66 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

Two More De­ci­sion The­ory Prob­lems for Humans

Wei_Dai4 Jan 2019 9:00 UTC
59 points
13 comments2 min readLW link

Com­mon mis­takes peo­ple make when think­ing about de­ci­sion theory

cousin_it27 Mar 2012 20:03 UTC
54 points
27 comments2 min readLW link

In­gre­di­ents of Time­less De­ci­sion Theory

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Aug 2009 1:10 UTC
49 points
226 comments7 min readLW link

What is Wei Dai’s Up­date­less De­ci­sion The­ory?

AlephNeil19 May 2010 10:16 UTC
45 points
66 comments7 min readLW link

Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory: Prob­lems I Can’t Solve

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Jul 2009 0:02 UTC
47 points
156 comments6 min readLW link

Com­ment on de­ci­sion theory

Rob Bensinger9 Sep 2018 20:13 UTC
73 points
17 comments2 min readLW link

An in­tro­duc­tion to de­ci­sion theory

[deleted]13 Aug 2010 9:09 UTC
18 points
29 comments6 min readLW link

New­comb’s Prob­lem: A prob­lem for Causal De­ci­sion Theories

[deleted]16 Aug 2010 11:25 UTC
8 points
121 comments4 min readLW link

For­mal­iz­ing New­comb’s

cousin_it5 Apr 2009 15:39 UTC
20 points
117 comments1 min readLW link

A mechanis­tic model of meditation

Kaj_Sotala6 Nov 2019 21:37 UTC
109 points
8 comments21 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tors ex­ist: CDT go­ing bonkers… forever

Stuart_Armstrong14 Jan 2020 16:19 UTC
42 points
29 comments1 min readLW link

ACDT: a hack-y acausal de­ci­sion theory

Stuart_Armstrong15 Jan 2020 17:22 UTC
48 points
16 comments7 min readLW link

Refer­ence Post: Triv­ial De­ci­sion Problem

Chris_Leong15 Feb 2020 17:13 UTC
17 points
4 comments2 min readLW link

What makes coun­ter­fac­tu­als com­pa­rable?

Chris_Leong24 Apr 2020 22:47 UTC
11 points
6 comments3 min readLW link

For­mal Open Prob­lem in De­ci­sion Theory

Scott Garrabrant29 Nov 2018 3:25 UTC
32 points
11 comments4 min readLW link

The Ubiquitous Con­verse Law­vere Problem

Scott Garrabrant29 Nov 2018 3:16 UTC
20 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

(A → B) → A

Scott Garrabrant11 Sep 2018 22:38 UTC
46 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Pri­son­ers’ Dilemma with Costs to Modeling

Scott Garrabrant5 Jun 2018 4:51 UTC
173 points
20 comments7 min readLW link

New­comblike prob­lems are the norm

So8res24 Sep 2014 18:41 UTC
53 points
111 comments7 min readLW link

Model­ing nat­u­ral­ized de­ci­sion prob­lems in lin­ear logic

jessicata6 May 2020 0:15 UTC
15 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

[Question] What is the sub­jec­tive ex­pe­rience of free will for agents?

G Gordon Worley III2 Apr 2020 15:53 UTC
10 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ities Small Enough To Ig­nore: An at­tack on Pas­cal’s Mugging

Kaj_Sotala16 Sep 2015 10:45 UTC
20 points
176 comments5 min readLW link

UDT can learn an­thropic probabilities

cousin_it24 Jun 2018 18:04 UTC
65 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Solve Psy-Kosh’s non-an­thropic problem

cousin_it20 Dec 2010 21:24 UTC
44 points
116 comments1 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Para­dox: PD with Three Im­plies Chaos?

orthonormal27 Aug 2011 19:22 UTC
19 points
56 comments4 min readLW link

Con­se­quen­tial­ism Need Not Be Nearsighted

orthonormal2 Sep 2011 7:37 UTC
55 points
118 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­ory Para­dox: An­swer Key

orthonormal5 Sep 2011 23:13 UTC
6 points
10 comments3 min readLW link

Sec­tion 7: Foun­da­tions of Ra­tional Agency

JesseClifton22 Dec 2019 2:05 UTC
16 points
3 comments8 min readLW link

De­ci­sions are not about chang­ing the world, they are about learn­ing what world you live in

shminux28 Jul 2018 8:41 UTC
36 points
69 comments11 min readLW link

Com­ment on Co­her­ence ar­gu­ments do not im­ply goal di­rected behavior

Ronny6 Dec 2019 9:30 UTC
24 points
8 comments5 min readLW link

Dutch-Book­ing CDT

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 0:10 UTC
27 points
6 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] When is CDT Dutch-Book­able?

abramdemski13 Jan 2019 18:54 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

How to Mea­sure Anything

lukeprog7 Aug 2013 4:05 UTC
73 points
51 comments22 min readLW link

Refer­ences & Re­sources for LessWrong

XiXiDu10 Oct 2010 14:54 UTC
126 points
106 comments20 min readLW link

How I Lost 100 Pounds Us­ing TDT

Zvi14 Mar 2011 15:50 UTC
100 points
242 comments4 min readLW link

Mul­ti­verse-wide Co­op­er­a­tion via Cor­re­lated De­ci­sion Making

Kaj_Sotala20 Aug 2017 12:01 UTC
4 points
2 comments1 min readLW link
(foundational-research.org)

Bounded ver­sions of Gödel’s and Löb’s theorems

cousin_it27 Jun 2012 18:28 UTC
32 points
22 comments2 min readLW link

Com­press­ing Real­ity to Math

Vaniver15 Dec 2011 0:07 UTC
20 points
7 comments8 min readLW link

Mea­sures, Risk, Death, and War

Vaniver20 Dec 2011 23:37 UTC
11 points
14 comments8 min readLW link

The Joys of Con­ju­gate Priors

TCB21 May 2011 2:41 UTC
43 points
24 comments5 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity, knowl­edge, and meta-probability

David_Chapman17 Sep 2013 0:02 UTC
39 points
73 comments5 min readLW link

De­ci­sion-the­o­retic prob­lems and The­o­ries; An (In­com­plete) com­par­a­tive list

somervta11 Jul 2018 2:59 UTC
37 points
0 comments1 min readLW link
(docs.google.com)

Zero-Knowl­edge Cooperation

bryjnar25 Oct 2017 5:35 UTC
37 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Time­less Modesty?

abramdemski24 Nov 2017 11:12 UTC
29 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging: Why should you pay?

Chris_Leong17 Dec 2019 22:16 UTC
6 points
59 comments3 min readLW link

Ap­ply­ing the Coun­ter­fac­tual Pri­soner’s Dilemma to Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Chris_Leong16 Sep 2020 10:34 UTC
9 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

For­mal vs. Effec­tive Pre-Commitment

Chris_Leong27 Aug 2018 12:04 UTC
12 points
44 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What De­ci­sion The­ory is Im­plied By Pre­dic­tive Pro­cess­ing?

johnswentworth28 Sep 2020 17:20 UTC
53 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Treat­ing an­thropic self­ish prefer­ences as an ex­ten­sion of TDT

Manfred1 Jan 2015 0:43 UTC
9 points
16 comments11 min readLW link

Selfish prefer­ences and self-modification

Manfred14 Jan 2015 8:42 UTC
4 points
24 comments2 min readLW link

Kid­nap­ping and the game of Chicken

Manfred3 Nov 2013 6:29 UTC
15 points
21 comments4 min readLW link

“Don’t even think about hell”

emmab2 May 2020 8:06 UTC
6 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Mo­ral­ity vs re­lated concepts

MichaelA7 Jan 2020 10:47 UTC
29 points
17 comments8 min readLW link

Mo­ral un­cer­tainty vs re­lated concepts

MichaelA11 Jan 2020 10:03 UTC
28 points
13 comments16 min readLW link

Mak­ing de­ci­sions when both morally and em­piri­cally uncertain

MichaelA2 Jan 2020 7:20 UTC
14 points
14 comments20 min readLW link

Mak­ing de­ci­sions un­der moral uncertainty

MichaelA30 Dec 2019 1:49 UTC
18 points
26 comments17 min readLW link

Mo­ral un­cer­tainty: What kind of ‘should’ is in­volved?

MichaelA13 Jan 2020 12:13 UTC
16 points
11 comments13 min readLW link

Dis­solv­ing Con­fu­sion around Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

scasper5 Jan 2020 6:38 UTC
22 points
12 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] 3-P Group op­ti­mal for dis­cus­sion?

AiresJL13 Jul 2020 22:23 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Coun­ter­fac­tual Re­pro­gram­ming De­ci­sion Theory

lukeprog10 Sep 2012 1:35 UTC
11 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

The cor­rect re­sponse to un­cer­tainty is *not* half-speed

AnnaSalamon15 Jan 2016 22:55 UTC
108 points
43 comments3 min readLW link

Beyond Astro­nom­i­cal Waste

Wei_Dai7 Jun 2018 21:04 UTC
108 points
41 comments3 min readLW link2 nominations

Prob­lems in AI Align­ment that philoso­phers could po­ten­tially con­tribute to

Wei_Dai17 Aug 2019 17:38 UTC
84 points
14 comments2 min readLW link

The Dar­win Results

Zvi25 Nov 2017 13:30 UTC
81 points
10 comments5 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Im­plicit extortion

paulfchristiano13 Apr 2018 16:33 UTC
74 points
16 comments6 min readLW link
(ai-alignment.com)

Sim­plified Poker

Zvi4 Jun 2018 15:50 UTC
70 points
17 comments1 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Against the Lin­ear Utility Hy­poth­e­sis and the Lev­er­age Penalty

AlexMennen14 Dec 2017 18:38 UTC
73 points
47 comments11 min readLW link

Pavlov Generalizes

abramdemski20 Feb 2019 9:03 UTC
69 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

TDT for Humans

alkjash28 Feb 2018 5:40 UTC
62 points
5 comments5 min readLW link
(radimentary.wordpress.com)

EDT solves 5 and 10 with con­di­tional oracles

jessicata30 Sep 2018 7:57 UTC
62 points
8 comments13 min readLW link

Bayesi­ans vs. Barbarians

Eliezer Yudkowsky14 Apr 2009 23:45 UTC
64 points
283 comments8 min readLW link

Com­par­i­son of de­ci­sion the­o­ries (with a fo­cus on log­i­cal-coun­ter­fac­tual de­ci­sion the­o­ries)

riceissa16 Mar 2019 21:15 UTC
65 points
11 comments10 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­ging: Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities

Eliezer Yudkowsky19 Oct 2007 23:37 UTC
64 points
346 comments4 min readLW link

“UDT2” and “against UD+ASSA”

Wei_Dai12 May 2019 4:18 UTC
50 points
7 comments7 min readLW link

You May Already Be A Sinner

Scott Alexander9 Mar 2009 23:18 UTC
44 points
37 comments3 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­gle Pays

Zvi16 Dec 2017 20:40 UTC
43 points
17 comments4 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Coun­ter­fac­tual Mugging

Vladimir_Nesov19 Mar 2009 6:08 UTC
56 points
296 comments2 min readLW link

Pas­cal’s Mug­gle: In­finites­i­mal Pri­ors and Strong Evidence

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 May 2013 0:43 UTC
50 points
406 comments26 min readLW link

Hofs­tadter’s Superrationality

gwern21 Apr 2012 13:33 UTC
50 points
21 comments1 min readLW link

A model of UDT with a con­crete prior over log­i­cal statements

Benya28 Aug 2012 21:45 UTC
43 points
24 comments4 min readLW link

New­comb’s prob­lem hap­pened to me

Academian26 Mar 2010 18:31 UTC
43 points
99 comments3 min readLW link

(Ir)ra­tio­nal­ity of Pas­cal’s wager

filozof3377@gmial.com3 Aug 2020 20:57 UTC
2 points
10 comments4 min readLW link

A model of UDT with a halt­ing oracle

cousin_it18 Dec 2011 14:18 UTC
41 points
102 comments2 min readLW link

More on the Lin­ear Utility Hy­poth­e­sis and the Lev­er­age Prior

AlexMennen26 Feb 2018 23:53 UTC
37 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

What a re­duc­tion of “could” could look like

cousin_it12 Aug 2010 17:41 UTC
65 points
111 comments2 min readLW link

Knowl­edge is Freedom

Scott Garrabrant9 Feb 2018 5:24 UTC
63 points
16 comments6 min readLW link

Log­i­cal Up­date­less­ness as a Ro­bust Del­e­ga­tion Problem

Scott Garrabrant27 Oct 2017 21:16 UTC
48 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Parfit’s Es­cape (Filk)

G Gordon Worley III29 Mar 2019 2:31 UTC
40 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The Black­mail Equation

Stuart_Armstrong10 Mar 2010 14:46 UTC
23 points
87 comments5 min readLW link

Two Types of Updatelessness

abramdemski15 Feb 2018 20:19 UTC
45 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

Dis­tance Func­tions are Hard

Grue_Slinky13 Aug 2019 17:33 UTC
40 points
19 comments6 min readLW link

Two Alter­na­tives to Log­i­cal Counterfactuals

jessicata1 Apr 2020 9:48 UTC
30 points
61 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

Policy Approval

abramdemski30 Jun 2018 0:24 UTC
49 points
25 comments9 min readLW link

Is risk aver­sion re­ally ir­ra­tional ?

kilobug31 Jan 2012 20:34 UTC
41 points
65 comments9 min readLW link

Oper­a­tional­iz­ing New­comb’s Problem

ErickBall11 Nov 2019 22:52 UTC
36 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

Another at­tempt to ex­plain UDT

cousin_it14 Nov 2010 16:52 UTC
35 points
54 comments2 min readLW link

The Happy Dance Problem

abramdemski17 Nov 2017 0:47 UTC
36 points
7 comments3 min readLW link

UDT as a Nash Equilibrium

cousin_it6 Feb 2018 14:08 UTC
36 points
17 comments1 min readLW link

A prob­lem with Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory (TDT)

Gary_Drescher4 Feb 2010 18:47 UTC
36 points
140 comments3 min readLW link

Solv­ing the two en­velopes problem

rstarkov9 Aug 2012 13:42 UTC
35 points
33 comments4 min readLW link

Prob­le­matic Prob­lems for TDT

drnickbone29 May 2012 15:41 UTC
36 points
301 comments4 min readLW link

The Ab­sent-Minded Driver

Wei_Dai16 Sep 2009 0:51 UTC
36 points
150 comments3 min readLW link

Com­plete Class: Con­se­quen­tial­ist Foundations

abramdemski11 Jul 2018 1:57 UTC
44 points
34 comments13 min readLW link

“Cheat­ing Death in Da­m­as­cus” Solu­tion to the Fermi Para­dox

avturchin30 Jun 2018 12:00 UTC
13 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Self-Similar­ity Experiment

Telofy15 Aug 2020 13:19 UTC
11 points
0 comments10 min readLW link

Let’s Dis­cuss Func­tional De­ci­sion Theory

Chris_Leong23 Jul 2018 7:24 UTC
30 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

List of Prob­lems That Mo­ti­vated UDT

Wei_Dai6 Jun 2012 0:26 UTC
31 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] A way to beat su­per­ra­tional/​EDT agents?

Abhimanyu Pallavi Sudhir17 Aug 2020 14:33 UTC
6 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

The Pre­dic­tion Prob­lem: A Var­i­ant on New­comb’s

Chris_Leong4 Jul 2018 7:40 UTC
28 points
11 comments9 min readLW link

L-zom­bies! (L-zom­bies?)

Benya7 Feb 2014 18:30 UTC
26 points
72 comments7 min readLW link

Why you must max­i­mize ex­pected utility

Benya13 Dec 2012 1:11 UTC
25 points
76 comments21 min readLW link

Mixed-Strat­egy Rat­ifi­a­bil­ity Im­plies CDT=EDT

abramdemski31 Oct 2017 5:56 UTC
25 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

Ex­plicit Op­ti­miza­tion of Global Strat­egy (Fix­ing a Bug in UDT1)

Wei_Dai19 Feb 2010 1:30 UTC
29 points
38 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] Which text­book would you recom­mend to learn de­ci­sion the­ory?

supermartingale29 Jan 2019 20:48 UTC
28 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

A Prob­lem About Bar­gain­ing and Log­i­cal Uncertainty

Wei_Dai21 Mar 2012 21:03 UTC
32 points
49 comments1 min readLW link

What Pro­gram Are You?

RobinHanson12 Oct 2009 0:29 UTC
28 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Time­less De­ci­sion The­ory and Meta-Cir­cu­lar De­ci­sion Theory

Eliezer Yudkowsky20 Aug 2009 22:07 UTC
27 points
37 comments10 min readLW link

Asymp­totic De­ci­sion The­ory (Im­proved Wri­teup)

Diffractor27 Sep 2018 5:17 UTC
29 points
14 comments13 min readLW link

AI co­op­er­a­tion in practice

cousin_it30 Jul 2010 16:21 UTC
31 points
166 comments1 min readLW link

For­mu­las of ar­ith­metic that be­have like de­ci­sion agents

Nisan3 Feb 2012 2:58 UTC
22 points
34 comments11 min readLW link

Con­trol­ling Con­stant Programs

Vladimir_Nesov5 Sep 2010 13:45 UTC
25 points
33 comments5 min readLW link

Does TDT pay in Coun­ter­fac­tual Mug­ging?

Bongo29 Nov 2010 21:31 UTC
4 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

Ex­am­ple de­ci­sion the­ory prob­lem: “Agent simu­lates pre­dic­tor”

cousin_it19 May 2011 15:16 UTC
26 points
76 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum ver­sus log­i­cal bombs

Stuart_Armstrong17 Nov 2013 15:14 UTC
18 points
45 comments1 min readLW link

Quan­tum im­mor­tal­ity: Is de­cline of mea­sure com­pen­sated by merg­ing timelines?

avturchin11 Dec 2018 19:39 UTC
10 points
8 comments2 min readLW link

Quan­tum the­ory can­not con­sis­tently de­scribe the use of itself

avturchin20 Sep 2018 22:04 UTC
8 points
16 comments1 min readLW link
(foundations.ethz.ch)

Quan­tum Rus­sian Roulette

Christian_Szegedy18 Sep 2009 8:49 UTC
6 points
63 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian un­cer­tainty: a re­jec­tion of the MMEU rule

So8res26 Aug 2014 3:03 UTC
26 points
9 comments15 min readLW link

Ev­i­den­tial De­ci­sion The­ory, Selec­tion Bias, and Refer­ence Classes

Qiaochu_Yuan8 Jul 2013 5:16 UTC
25 points
128 comments6 min readLW link

Philo­soph­i­cal self-ratification

jessicata3 Feb 2020 22:48 UTC
25 points
13 comments5 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

For­mal­is­ing de­ci­sion the­ory is hard

Lanrian23 Aug 2019 3:27 UTC
18 points
19 comments2 min readLW link

Build a Causal De­ci­sion Theorist

michaelcohen23 Sep 2019 20:43 UTC
1 point
14 comments4 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.3 (Up­dates, De­ci­sion The­ory)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:49 UTC
7 points
0 comments31 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.2 (Iso­mor­phism to Ex­pec­ta­tions)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:52 UTC
7 points
0 comments46 min readLW link

Proofs Sec­tion 2.1 (The­o­rem 1, Lem­mas)

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 7:54 UTC
7 points
0 comments36 min readLW link

In­tro­duc­tion To The In­fra-Bayesi­anism Sequence

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 8:02 UTC
78 points
24 comments13 min readLW link

Ba­sic In­framea­sure Theory

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 8:02 UTC
20 points
5 comments25 min readLW link

Belief Func­tions And De­ci­sion Theory

Diffractor27 Aug 2020 8:00 UTC
12 points
0 comments39 min readLW link

The Ul­ti­mate New­comb’s Problem

Eliezer Yudkowsky10 Sep 2013 2:03 UTC
22 points
114 comments1 min readLW link

A Model of Ra­tional Policy: When Is a Goal “Good”?

FCCC10 Oct 2020 17:05 UTC
2 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

A full ex­pla­na­tion to New­comb’s para­dox.

solomon alon12 Oct 2020 16:48 UTC
−6 points
12 comments3 min readLW link

The Achilles Heel Hy­poth­e­sis for AI

scasper13 Oct 2020 14:35 UTC
18 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

Knigh­tian Uncer­tainty and Am­bi­guity Aver­sion: Motivation

So8res21 Jul 2014 20:32 UTC
24 points
44 comments13 min readLW link

Thoughts from a Two Boxer

jaek23 Aug 2019 0:24 UTC
19 points
11 comments5 min readLW link

The Evil Ge­nie Puzzle

Chris_Leong25 Jul 2018 6:12 UTC
20 points
44 comments1 min readLW link
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