All 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201820192020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

All Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepOctNov Dec

All 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 171819 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Random Thoughts on Predict-O-Matic

abramdemskiOct 17, 2019, 11:39 PM

40 points

3 comments9 min readLW link

The best of the www, in my opinion

aiiixiiiOct 17, 2019, 3:14 PM

20 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

Festival Stats 2019

jefftkOct 17, 2019, 11:00 AM

8 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

The Dualist Predict-O-Matic ($100 prize)

John_MaxwellOct 17, 2019, 6:45 AM

19 points

35 comments5 min readLW link

A Money Dojo

EloOct 16, 2019, 8:35 PM

16 points

3 comments3 min readLW link

Epistemic Spot Checks: The Fall of Rome

ElizabethOct 16, 2019, 6:40 PM

38 points

2 comments8 min readLW link

(acesounderglass.com)

Introducing Foretold.io: A New Open-Source Prediction Registry

ozziegooenOct 16, 2019, 2:23 PM

79 points

10 comments3 min readLW link

Make more land

jefftkOct 16, 2019, 11:20 AM

167 points

36 comments2 min readLW link 5 reviews

(www.jefftk.com)

Full toy model for preference learning

Stuart_ArmstrongOct 16, 2019, 11:06 AM

20 points

2 comments12 min readLW link

Gradient hacking

evhubOct 16, 2019, 12:53 AM

107 points

39 comments3 min readLW link 2 reviews

Always Discard Fascist Policies

David SpiesOct 15, 2019, 10:23 PM

15 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

Philadelphia SSC Meetup

MajusculeOct 15, 2019, 5:41 PM

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Transportation Tracking

jefftkOct 15, 2019, 11:00 AM

10 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

SSC Madison: Meditations on Raikoth

marywangOct 15, 2019, 3:42 AM

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

TAISU 2019 Field Report

Gordon Seidoh WorleyOct 15, 2019, 1:09 AM

36 points

5 comments5 min readLW link

The Parable of Predict-O-Matic

abramdemskiOct 15, 2019, 12:49 AM

360 points

43 comments14 min readLW link 2 reviews

Strong stances

KatjaGraceOct 15, 2019, 12:40 AM

27 points

9 comments9 min readLW link

(meteuphoric.com)

Impact measurement and value-neutrality verification

evhubOct 15, 2019, 12:06 AM

31 points

13 comments6 min readLW link

Schematic Thinking: heuristic generalization using Korzybski’s method

romeostevensitOct 14, 2019, 7:29 PM

28 points

7 comments3 min readLW link

[AN #68]: The attainable utility theory of impact

Rohin ShahOct 14, 2019, 5:00 PM

17 points

0 comments8 min readLW link

(mailchi.mp)

Whistle-based Synthesis

jefftkOct 14, 2019, 12:10 PM

7 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Maybe Lying Doesn’t Exist

Zack_M_DavisOct 14, 2019, 7:04 AM

71 points

59 comments8 min readLW link

[Question] What would the world be like if everyone was a rationalist?

Nikolas MitropoulosOct 14, 2019, 5:29 AM

1 point

0 comments LW link

Fall Pittsburgh SSC Meetup

fr8trainOct 14, 2019, 3:32 AM

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Regarding Archimedes (a philosophy of math anecdote)

KyriakosCHOct 13, 2019, 9:25 PM

2 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

MA Price Accuracy Law

jefftkOct 13, 2019, 12:00 PM

15 points

2 comments2 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

[Question] What’s going on with “provability”?

Sunny from QADOct 13, 2019, 3:59 AM

23 points

22 comments1 min readLW link

AI alignment landscape

paulfchristianoOct 13, 2019, 2:10 AM

40 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(ai-alignment.com)

Prediction Markets Don’t Reveal The Territory

SebastianG Oct 12, 2019, 11:54 PM

6 points

14 comments3 min readLW link

SSC Meetup 10/12: Minneapolis / St. Paul

Drake ThomasOct 12, 2019, 3:44 PM

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Planned Power Outages

jefftkOct 12, 2019, 2:10 PM

27 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

A simple sketch of how realism became unpopular

Rob BensingerOct 11, 2019, 10:25 PM

63 points

55 comments4 min readLW link

A Short Introduction to Theory of Change

Ian David MossOct 11, 2019, 7:00 PM

6 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Rent Needs to Decrease

jefftkOct 11, 2019, 12:40 PM

15 points

18 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

When we substantially modify an old post should we edit directly or post a version 2?

Chris_LeongOct 11, 2019, 10:40 AM

11 points

5 comments1 min readLW link

Sets and Functions

countedblessingsOct 11, 2019, 5:06 AM

31 points

22 comments10 min readLW link

Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 4 - Smaller things that I’ve learned

Adam ZernerOct 11, 2019, 1:26 AM

21 points

8 comments6 min readLW link

Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 3 - What I’ve learned

Adam ZernerOct 11, 2019, 12:49 AM

29 points

34 comments15 min readLW link

How feasible is long-range forecasting?

Ben PaceOct 10, 2019, 10:11 PM

40 points

7 comments2 min readLW link

(www.openphilanthropy.org)

[Question] I would like to try double crux.

valentinslepukhinOct 10, 2019, 9:34 PM

11 points

158 comments1 min readLW link

The Baconian Method (Novum Organum Book 1: 93-107)

Francis BaconOct 10, 2019, 6:54 PM

28 points

1 comment11 min readLW link

“Mild Hallucination” Test

Logan RiggsOct 10, 2019, 5:57 PM

9 points

55 comments2 min readLW link

What is the real “danger zone” for food?

jefftkOct 10, 2019, 11:00 AM

8 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

CPH meetup 10/20/19

SønderjyeOct 10, 2019, 10:08 AM

10 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

Thoughts on “Human-Compatible”

TurnTroutOct 10, 2019, 5:24 AM

64 points

34 comments5 min readLW link

Western Massachusetts SSC meetup #17

a_liebOct 10, 2019, 2:44 AM

1 point

0 comments1 min readLW link

Examples of Categories

countedblessingsOct 10, 2019, 1:25 AM

27 points

2 comments5 min readLW link

Long Term Future Fund application is closing this Friday (October 11th)

habrykaOct 10, 2019, 12:44 AM

26 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(docs.google.com)

Minimization of prediction error as a foundation for human values in AI alignment

Gordon Seidoh WorleyOct 9, 2019, 6:23 PM

15 points

42 comments5 min readLW link

Expected Value- Millionaires Math

Matt GoldenbergOct 9, 2019, 2:50 PM

8 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(foreverjobless.com)