FYI, this is now set up: https://www.lesswrong.com/s/tXiWcokm9tpy8uApN
That’s a good idea, I’ll have to figure out how to do that! :)
This mostly made sense to me, but what is the surprising information that caused you to update in favor of Trump being reelected? Presumably some piece of economic news? Or did I misunderstand your last sentence?
Yes, I agree that choice of distribution is often very important to modeling outcomes. If you’re not sure which is most appropriate, you can experiment with different ones as you just did to see whether and how they affect the results. By the way, Guesstimate supports more distributions than the three you mentioned, but the others involve a little more work to incorporate into the model. You can even define your own distributions from sample data that you upload.
Whoops! It is not. Here’s the correct one, and I’ll make the change in the post as well. Thanks for the correction and the kind words!