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Solomonoff Induction

TagLast edit: 25 Sep 2020 19:51 UTC by Ruby

Solomonoff induction is an inference system defined by Ray Solomonoff that will learn to correctly predict any computable sequence with only the absolute minimum amount of data. This system, in a certain sense, is the perfect universal prediction algorithm.

To summarize it very informally, Solomonoff induction works by:

Weighting hypotheses by simplicity, the system automatically incorporates a form of Occam’s razor, which is why it has been playfully referred to as Solomonoff’s lightsaber.

Solomonoff induction gets off the ground with a solution to the “problem of the priors”. Suppose that you stand before a universal prefix Turing machine U. You are interested in a certain finite output string y0. In particular, you want to know the probability that U will produce the output y0 given a random input tape. This probability is the Solomonoff a priori probability of y0.

More precisely, suppose that a particular infinite input string x0 is about to be fed into U. However, you know nothing about x0 other than that each term of the string is either 0 or 1. As far as your state of knowledge is concerned, the ith digit of x0 is as likely to be 0 as it is to be 1, for all i = 1, 2, …. You want to find the a priori probability m(y0) of the following proposition:

(*) If U takes in x0 as input, then U will produce output y0 and then halt.

Unfortunately, computing the exact value of m(y0) would require solving the halting problem, which is undecidable. Nonetheless, it is easy to derive an expression for m(y0). If U halts on an infinite input string x, then U must read only a finite initial segment of x, after which U immediately halts. We call a finite string p a self-delimiting program if and only if there exists an infinite input string x beginning with p such that U halts on x immediately after reading to the end of p. The set 𝒫 of self-delimiting programs is the prefix code for U. It is the determination of the elements of 𝒫 that requires a solution to the halting problem.

Given p ∈ 𝒫, we write “prog (x0) = p” to express the proposition that x0 begins with p, and we write “U(p) = y0″ to express the proposition that U produces output y0, and then halts, when fed any input beginning with p. Proposition (*) is then equivalent to the exclusive disjunction


p ∈ 𝒫: U(p) = y0(prog (x0) = p).
Since x0 was chosen at random from {0, 1}ω, we take the probability of prog (x0) = p to be 2 − ℓ(p), where ℓ(p) is the length of p as a bit string. Hence, the probability of (*) is


m(y0) := ∑p ∈ 𝒫: U(p) = y02 − ℓ(p).

See also

References

An In­tu­itive Ex­pla­na­tion of Solomonoff Induction

Alex_Altair11 Jul 2012 8:05 UTC
118 points
220 comments24 min readLW link

The Solomonoff Prior is Malign

Mark Xu14 Oct 2020 1:33 UTC
129 points
34 comments16 min readLW link

A Semitech­ni­cal In­tro­duc­tory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction

Eliezer Yudkowsky4 Mar 2021 17:27 UTC
91 points
16 comments54 min readLW link

Open Prob­lems Re­lated to Solomonoff Induction

Wei_Dai6 Jun 2012 0:26 UTC
39 points
106 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] How is Solomonoff in­duc­tion calcu­lated in prac­tice?

Bucky4 Jun 2019 10:11 UTC
33 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

When does ra­tio­nal­ity-as-search have non­triv­ial im­pli­ca­tions?

nostalgebraist4 Nov 2018 22:42 UTC
64 points
11 comments3 min readLW link

The Prob­lem of the Criterion

G Gordon Worley III21 Jan 2021 15:05 UTC
28 points
38 comments9 min readLW link

Solomonoff Cartesianism

Rob Bensinger2 Mar 2014 17:56 UTC
47 points
49 comments25 min readLW link

[Question] Is the hu­man brain a valid choice for the Univer­sal Tur­ing Ma­chine in Solomonoff In­duc­tion?

habryka8 Dec 2018 1:49 UTC
20 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Clar­ify­ing Con­se­quen­tial­ists in the Solomonoff Prior

vlad_m11 Jul 2018 2:35 UTC
19 points
14 comments6 min readLW link

A po­ten­tial prob­lem with us­ing Solomonoff in­duc­tion as a prior

JoshuaZ7 Apr 2011 19:27 UTC
18 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Clar­ify­ing The Mal­ig­nity of the Univer­sal Prior: The Lex­i­cal Update

interstice15 Jan 2020 0:00 UTC
20 points
2 comments3 min readLW link

Reflec­tive AIXI and Anthropics

Diffractor24 Sep 2018 2:15 UTC
17 points
13 comments8 min readLW link

Asymp­totic Log­i­cal Uncer­tainty: Con­crete Failure of the Solomonoff Approach

Scott Garrabrant22 Jul 2015 19:27 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Math­e­mat­i­cal In­con­sis­tency in Solomonoff In­duc­tion?

curi25 Aug 2020 17:09 UTC
7 points
15 comments2 min readLW link

Limited agents need ap­prox­i­mate induction

Manfred24 Apr 2015 7:42 UTC
16 points
10 comments8 min readLW link

Solomonoff In­duc­tion and Sleep­ing Beauty

ike17 Nov 2020 2:28 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readLW link

Belief in the Im­plied Invisible

Eliezer Yudkowsky8 Apr 2008 7:40 UTC
47 points
34 comments6 min readLW link

Weak ar­gu­ments against the uni­ver­sal prior be­ing malign

X4vier14 Jun 2018 17:11 UTC
49 points
23 comments3 min readLW link

De­co­her­ence is Simple

Eliezer Yudkowsky6 May 2008 7:44 UTC
50 points
61 comments11 min readLW link

This Ter­ri­tory Does Not Exist

ike13 Aug 2020 0:30 UTC
7 points
199 comments7 min readLW link

The prior of a hy­poth­e­sis does not de­pend on its complexity

cousin_it26 Aug 2010 13:20 UTC
34 points
69 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] Why would code/​English or low-ab­strac­tion/​high-ab­strac­tion sim­plic­ity or brevity cor­re­spond?

curi4 Sep 2020 19:46 UTC
2 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tion can be Outer Aligned at Optimum

Lanrian10 Jan 2021 18:48 UTC
13 points
11 comments11 min readLW link

Ex­cerpt from Ar­bital Solomonoff in­duc­tion dialogue

Richard_Ngo17 Jan 2021 3:49 UTC
36 points
6 comments5 min readLW link
(arbital.com)
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