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Kelly Criterion

TagLast edit: 7 Dec 2020 15:48 UTC by Yoav Ravid

the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), also known as the scientific gambling method, is a formula for bet sizing that leads almost surely to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run (i.e. approaching the limit as the number of bets goes to infinity). (Wikipedia)

Posts from elsewhere: The Kelly Coin-Flipping Game: Exact Solutions

see also: Betting

Kelly *is* (just) about log­a­r­ith­mic utility

abramdemski1 Mar 2021 20:02 UTC
99 points
26 comments12 min readLW link1 review

Tyranny of the Epistemic Majority

Scott Garrabrant22 Nov 2022 17:19 UTC
189 points
13 comments9 min readLW link1 review

The Kelly Cri­te­rion in 3D

lsusr20 Feb 2021 8:21 UTC
47 points
18 comments2 min readLW link

The Kelly Criterion

Zvi15 Oct 2018 21:20 UTC
101 points
24 comments3 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Kelly Bet or Up­date?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 20:26 UTC
50 points
23 comments7 min readLW link

Sim­ple Kelly bet­ting in pre­dic­tion markets

jessicata6 Mar 2024 18:59 UTC
38 points
3 comments3 min readLW link
(unstablerontology.substack.com)

How to Lose a Fair Game

gilch14 Aug 2020 18:41 UTC
36 points
15 comments7 min readLW link

Why bet Kelly?

AlexMennen15 Nov 2022 18:12 UTC
32 points
14 comments5 min readLW link

Kelly Cri­te­ria and Two Envelopes

Wei Dai16 Aug 2012 21:57 UTC
11 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

On Kelly and altruism

philh24 Nov 2022 23:40 UTC
15 points
6 comments12 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

When and why should you use the Kelly crite­rion?

5 Nov 2023 23:26 UTC
27 points
25 comments16 min readLW link

Ruin­ing an ex­pected-log-money maximizer

philh20 Aug 2023 21:20 UTC
27 points
32 comments1 min readLW link
(reasonableapproximation.net)

Calcu­lat­ing Kelly

abramdemski22 Feb 2021 17:32 UTC
36 points
18 comments3 min readLW link

Why Bet Kelly?

Joe Zimmerman29 Nov 2022 18:47 UTC
16 points
4 comments4 min readLW link

Kelly isn’t (just) about log­a­r­ith­mic utility

SimonM23 Feb 2021 12:12 UTC
35 points
41 comments4 min readLW link

Never Go Full Kelly

SimonM25 Feb 2021 12:53 UTC
51 points
7 comments8 min readLW link

“New­ton’s laws” of finance

pchvykov21 Jun 2024 9:41 UTC
9 points
3 comments10 min readLW link

A non-log­a­r­ith­mic ar­gu­ment for Kelly

Bunthut4 Mar 2021 16:21 UTC
24 points
10 comments2 min readLW link

Kelly Bet­ting Discussion

Raemon12 Mar 2021 0:10 UTC
20 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

The Geo­met­ric Expectation

Scott Garrabrant23 Nov 2022 18:05 UTC
147 points
19 comments4 min readLW link

Kelly bet­ting vs ex­pec­ta­tion max­i­miza­tion

MorgneticField28 May 2023 1:54 UTC
35 points
33 comments5 min readLW link

Kelly Bet on Everything

Jacob Falkovich10 Jul 2020 2:48 UTC
100 points
20 comments5 min readLW link2 reviews

Kelly bettors

DanielFilan13 Nov 2018 0:40 UTC
24 points
3 comments10 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

[Question] Gen­er­al­ize Kelly to Ac­count for # Iter­a­tions?

abramdemski2 Nov 2020 16:36 UTC
24 points
18 comments1 min readLW link

Gen­er­al­ized Kelly betting

Linda Linsefors19 Jul 2018 1:38 UTC
15 points
5 comments2 min readLW link

[Dis­cus­sion] The Kelly crite­rion and con­se­quences for de­ci­sion mak­ing un­der uncertainty

Metus6 Jan 2013 2:14 UTC
9 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

The Art of the Overbet

Zvi19 Oct 2018 14:00 UTC
55 points
6 comments6 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Who wants to be a Million­aire?

Bucky1 Feb 2019 14:02 UTC
29 points
1 comment11 min readLW link

How to Un­der­stand and Miti­gate Risk

Matt Goldenberg12 Mar 2019 10:14 UTC
55 points
30 comments16 min readLW link
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