Fermi Estimation

TagLast edit: 2 Feb 2021 10:21 UTC by Yoav Ravid

A Fermi Estimation is a rough calculation which aims to be right within ~an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting a good enough to be useful answer without putting large amounts of thought and research in rather than being extremely accurate.

Related Pages: Forecasting & Prediction

Fermi Estimates

lukeprog11 Apr 2013 17:52 UTC
104 points
110 comments13 min readLW link

How To Fermi Model

9 Sep 2020 5:13 UTC
85 points
9 comments11 min readLW link2 reviews

[Question] What are some trig­gers that prompt you to do a Fermi es­ti­mate, or to pull up a spread­sheet and make a sim­ple/​rough quan­ti­ta­tive model?

Eli Tyre25 Jul 2021 6:47 UTC
37 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

What’s the chance a smart Lon­don res­i­dent dies of a Rus­sian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilan10 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
40 points
8 comments4 min readLW link

Fermi Es­ti­mates and Prob­a­bil­ity Calibration

Raemon15 May 2018 20:35 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to es­ti­mate?

tgb5 Jun 2012 3:15 UTC
11 points
46 comments1 min readLW link

Rough calcu­la­tions: Fermi and the art of guessing

XiXiDu8 Sep 2011 10:39 UTC
15 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Make your own cost-effec­tive­ness Fermi es­ti­mates for one-off problems

owencb11 Dec 2014 12:00 UTC
14 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Es­ti­mat­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of research

owencb11 Dec 2014 11:55 UTC
31 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Willing gam­blers, spher­i­cal cows, and AIs

ChrisHallquist8 Apr 2013 21:30 UTC
25 points
40 comments5 min readLW link

Us­ing Ex­pert Disagreement

dspeyer16 Jan 2020 22:42 UTC
13 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

[Question] How to es­ti­mate con­fi­dence in­ter­vals for fermi es­ti­mate?

Sønderjye20 Feb 2022 1:26 UTC
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Fermi es­ti­ma­tion of the im­pact you might have work­ing on AI safety

Fabien13 May 2022 17:49 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The im­pact you might have work­ing on AI safety

Fabien29 May 2022 16:31 UTC
2 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Dialec­ti­cal Bootstrapping

Johnicholas13 Mar 2009 17:10 UTC
22 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity and Politics

CarlShulman24 Nov 2010 17:02 UTC
28 points
31 comments5 min readLW link

Fermi Fingers

Optimization Process9 Aug 2021 19:56 UTC
27 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How much mem­ory is re­served for cute kit­ten pic­tures?

Bezzi4 Oct 2021 21:30 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

How Many (Smallish) Or­ganic Com­pounds Are There?

chemslug20 Feb 2022 4:43 UTC
22 points
10 comments5 min readLW link
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