# Fermi Estimation

TagLast edit: 2 Feb 2021 10:18 UTC by

A Fermi Estimation is a rough calculation which aims to be right within ~an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting a good enough to be useful answer without putting large amounts of thought and research in rather than being extremely accurate.

Related Pages: Forecasting & Prediction

# Fermi Estimates

11 Apr 2013 17:52 UTC
114 points

# How To Fermi Model

9 Sep 2020 5:13 UTC
86 points

# [Question] What are some trig­gers that prompt you to do a Fermi es­ti­mate, or to pull up a spread­sheet and make a sim­ple/​rough quan­ti­ta­tive model?

25 Jul 2021 6:47 UTC
38 points

# What’s the chance a smart Lon­don res­i­dent dies of a Rus­sian nuke in the next month?

10 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
40 points
(danielfilan.com)

# Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to es­ti­mate?

5 Jun 2012 3:15 UTC
11 points

# Fermi es­ti­ma­tion of the im­pact you might have work­ing on AI safety

13 May 2022 17:49 UTC
6 points

# The im­pact you might have work­ing on AI safety

29 May 2022 16:31 UTC
5 points

# Rough calcu­la­tions: Fermi and the art of guessing

8 Sep 2011 10:39 UTC
15 points

# [Question] How do I find tu­tors for ob­scure skills/​sub­jects (i.e. fermi es­ti­ma­tion tu­tors)

15 Sep 2022 1:15 UTC
11 points

# Make your own cost-effec­tive­ness Fermi es­ti­mates for one-off problems

11 Dec 2014 12:00 UTC
14 points

# Es­ti­mat­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of research

11 Dec 2014 11:55 UTC
32 points

# Willing gam­blers, spher­i­cal cows, and AIs

8 Apr 2013 21:30 UTC
25 points

# Us­ing Ex­pert Disagreement

16 Jan 2020 22:42 UTC
13 points

# The Math of Sus­pi­cious Coincidences

7 Feb 2024 13:32 UTC
31 points

# The Ev­i­dence for Ques­tion De­com­po­si­tion is Weak

28 Aug 2023 15:46 UTC
22 points

# A Back-Of-The-En­velope Calcu­la­tion On How Un­likely The Cir­cum­stan­tial Ev­i­dence Around Covid-19 Is

7 Feb 2024 21:49 UTC
6 points

# Can Mo­ral­ity Be Quan­tified?

9 Jan 2024 6:35 UTC
3 points

# [Question] How to es­ti­mate con­fi­dence in­ter­vals for fermi es­ti­mate?

20 Feb 2022 1:26 UTC
3 points

# Fermi Es­ti­mates and Prob­a­bil­ity Calibration

15 May 2018 20:35 UTC
4 points

# Just How Hard a Prob­lem is Align­ment?

25 Feb 2023 9:00 UTC
−1 points

# Mak­ing bet­ter es­ti­mates with scarce information

22 Mar 2023 17:40 UTC
11 points

# Dialec­ti­cal Bootstrapping

13 Mar 2009 17:10 UTC
22 points

# Prob­a­bil­ity and Politics

24 Nov 2010 17:02 UTC
28 points

# Soul­mate Fermi Es­ti­mate + My A(ltr)u[t]is­tic Mat­ing Strat­egy

12 Oct 2023 8:32 UTC
0 points

# Fermi Fingers

9 Aug 2021 19:56 UTC
28 points

# [Question] How much mem­ory is re­served for cute kit­ten pic­tures?

4 Oct 2021 21:30 UTC
4 points

# How Many (Smallish) Or­ganic Com­pounds Are There?

20 Feb 2022 4:43 UTC
22 points

# Squig­gle: An Overview

24 Nov 2020 3:00 UTC
60 points

# How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonex­is­tence On Aver­age?

8 Dec 2022 21:57 UTC
4 points

# Guessti­mate: Why and how to use it

24 Jan 2023 16:24 UTC
6 points
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

# The Es­ti­ma­tion Game: a monthly Fermi es­ti­ma­tion web app

20 Feb 2023 11:33 UTC
20 points