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Fermi Estimation

TagLast edit: 2 Feb 2021 10:18 UTC by Yoav Ravid

A Fermi Estimation is a rough calculation which aims to be right within ~an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting a good enough to be useful answer without putting large amounts of thought and research in rather than being extremely accurate.

Related Pages: Forecasting & Prediction

Fermi Estimates

lukeprog11 Apr 2013 17:52 UTC
114 points
109 comments13 min readLW link

How To Fermi Model

9 Sep 2020 5:13 UTC
86 points
9 comments11 min readLW link2 reviews

[Question] What are some trig­gers that prompt you to do a Fermi es­ti­mate, or to pull up a spread­sheet and make a sim­ple/​rough quan­ti­ta­tive model?

Eli Tyre25 Jul 2021 6:47 UTC
38 points
15 comments1 min readLW link

What’s the chance a smart Lon­don res­i­dent dies of a Rus­sian nuke in the next month?

DanielFilan10 Mar 2022 19:20 UTC
40 points
8 comments4 min readLW link
(danielfilan.com)

Where Fermi Fails: What is hard to es­ti­mate?

tgb5 Jun 2012 3:15 UTC
11 points
46 comments1 min readLW link

Fermi es­ti­ma­tion of the im­pact you might have work­ing on AI safety

Fabien Roger13 May 2022 17:49 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

The im­pact you might have work­ing on AI safety

Fabien Roger29 May 2022 16:31 UTC
5 points
1 comment4 min readLW link

Rough calcu­la­tions: Fermi and the art of guessing

XiXiDu8 Sep 2011 10:39 UTC
15 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

[Question] How do I find tu­tors for ob­scure skills/​sub­jects (i.e. fermi es­ti­ma­tion tu­tors)

joraine15 Sep 2022 1:15 UTC
11 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

Make your own cost-effec­tive­ness Fermi es­ti­mates for one-off problems

owencb11 Dec 2014 12:00 UTC
14 points
15 comments3 min readLW link

Es­ti­mat­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of research

owencb11 Dec 2014 11:55 UTC
32 points
2 comments2 min readLW link

Willing gam­blers, spher­i­cal cows, and AIs

ChrisHallquist8 Apr 2013 21:30 UTC
25 points
40 comments5 min readLW link

Us­ing Ex­pert Disagreement

dspeyer16 Jan 2020 22:42 UTC
13 points
1 comment5 min readLW link

The Math of Sus­pi­cious Coincidences

Roko7 Feb 2024 13:32 UTC
31 points
3 comments4 min readLW link

The Ev­i­dence for Ques­tion De­com­po­si­tion is Weak

niplav28 Aug 2023 15:46 UTC
22 points
6 comments5 min readLW link

A Back-Of-The-En­velope Calcu­la­tion On How Un­likely The Cir­cum­stan­tial Ev­i­dence Around Covid-19 Is

Roko7 Feb 2024 21:49 UTC
6 points
36 comments5 min readLW link

Can Mo­ral­ity Be Quan­tified?

Julius9 Jan 2024 6:35 UTC
3 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

[Question] How to es­ti­mate con­fi­dence in­ter­vals for fermi es­ti­mate?

Sønderjye20 Feb 2022 1:26 UTC
3 points
7 comments1 min readLW link

Fermi Es­ti­mates and Prob­a­bil­ity Calibration

Raemon15 May 2018 20:35 UTC
4 points
0 comments1 min readLW link

Just How Hard a Prob­lem is Align­ment?

Roger Dearnaley25 Feb 2023 9:00 UTC
−1 points
1 comment21 min readLW link

Mak­ing bet­ter es­ti­mates with scarce information

Stan Pinsent22 Mar 2023 17:40 UTC
11 points
5 comments10 min readLW link

Dialec­ti­cal Bootstrapping

Johnicholas13 Mar 2009 17:10 UTC
22 points
8 comments1 min readLW link

Prob­a­bil­ity and Politics

CarlShulman24 Nov 2010 17:02 UTC
28 points
31 comments5 min readLW link

Soul­mate Fermi Es­ti­mate + My A(ltr)u[t]is­tic Mat­ing Strat­egy

Jordan Arel12 Oct 2023 8:32 UTC
0 points
9 comments3 min readLW link

Fermi Fingers

Optimization Process9 Aug 2021 19:56 UTC
28 points
6 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How much mem­ory is re­served for cute kit­ten pic­tures?

Bezzi4 Oct 2021 21:30 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

How Many (Smallish) Or­ganic Com­pounds Are There?

chemslug20 Feb 2022 4:43 UTC
22 points
10 comments5 min readLW link

Squig­gle: An Overview

ozziegooen24 Nov 2020 3:00 UTC
60 points
6 comments7 min readLW link

How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonex­is­tence On Aver­age?

Jordan Arel8 Dec 2022 21:57 UTC
4 points
5 comments14 min readLW link

Guessti­mate: Why and how to use it

24 Jan 2023 16:24 UTC
6 points
0 comments3 min readLW link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

The Es­ti­ma­tion Game: a monthly Fermi es­ti­ma­tion web app

20 Feb 2023 11:33 UTC
20 points
2 comments1 min readLW link

I made a P(doom) calcu­la­tor for con­ve­nient Fermi estimation

Nicholas Kruus27 Dec 2023 18:22 UTC
1 point
0 comments5 min readLW link
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