[Question] What will the economic effects of COVID-19 be?

Ob­vi­ously there’s a lot of po­ten­tial an­swers to this and it’s hard to com­pre­hen­sive. That’s okay. The goal is to make in­cre­men­tal progress on the broad topic and iden­tify spe­cific points that would benefit from fur­ther re­search.

Note: Th­ese ques­tions are in­tended to pro­voke more bab­ble than prune. But even the bab­bliest thing should be pre­sented such that other peo­ple can build on it. So if you have a pre­dic­tion, share the rea­son­ing or data be­hind it as well.

Note 2: This ques­tion has more po­ten­tial to get poli­ti­cal than most. I’m not go­ing to dis­al­low that, be­cause the poli­ti­cal pro­cess is cru­cial to what’s go­ing to hap­pen in the next few months, but please tread very very care­fully, and I’m go­ing to be fairly ag­gres­sive at curb­ing po­ten­tial de­mon threads.

Note 3/​31/​2020: Re­named from “What will the eco­nomic effects of a 3 week quaran­tine be? 3 months?” to cur­rent ti­tle, which bet­ter re­flects how we were treat­ing it.