Of ‘we are first, we are freaks, we are fucked’ categories of great filter explanations, I think (consistent with this paper) we are definitely freaks, it looks like we may be first (at least in the parts of the universe that might in theory be reachable with existing physics/von neumann probes), and the jury is out on whether we are currently fucked (I’m a pessimist, I think we might be like the patient who ate a bottle of Tylenol, feeling fine, but definitely dead in a few days due to impending liver failure)
Antibody tests are here but are not being used to reopen (worries that people will variolate to go back to work, if that’s the case wtf is wrong with your economy).
Prophylaxis and symptomatic relief appears to be ‘Vitamin D to mitigate the bradykinin storm’: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z “As per the flexible approach in the current COVID-19 pandemic authors recommend mass administration of vitamin D supplements to population at risk for COVID-19.” Sure ok, one weird trick that actually works, nice.
Rapid PCR and in New Zealand, full genome sequencing for contact tracing is a thing, awesome. Rapid antigen tests are a thing too, but not helping the economy.
Idk about what works in hospitals, but ventilators and fentanyl scare me more than ‘happy hypoxemia’ so if I’m conscious enough to say don’t take me to a hospital, that’s what I’m saying. Remdesivir is not widely available enough for me to bother thinking about.
The DIY corona vaccine appears from what research has been done to be safe (no biologists who took it died) and according to animal model studies, effective. I have the wherewithal to construct it if I want, I haven’t bothered, therefore I probably won’t screw with the official one when it hits.
Based on present death rates and the state of the economy, quarantine wasn’t worth it.
Edit: my best guess about ‘long hauler’ symptoms is that they’re consistent with permanent damage to the lungs and long term low-moderate hypoxia, lung transplants and oxygen bottles are really the only treatments for that (if you can cure scarring and regenerate lung tissue, let the asbestosis and silicosis communities know), so long-haulers are probably screwed. Vitamin D should limit or halt this process.
This supercomputer model seems trustworthy so far: https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63
Instead of uploading humans to create a large mess of AIs, let’s connect humans together as soon as it’s safe to do so (maybe at first only the elderly and bedridden, eventually anyone who can wear a hat) then add machines and maybe even animals (sup elephants and dolphins) to create a single gigantic worldbrain. As computer simulations of brain tissue get better, the AI will go from being mostly human to mostly artificial. The death of a fully integrated human body wouldn’t cause an interruption in that human’s consciousness, because most of it would be distributed across the entire worldbrain.
I believe that extant technology could be used to do this and actually wrote up a technical proposal that I didn’t disseminate (it wasn’t great and I didn’t see anyone being persuaded by it so I trashed it). The technical risk is mostly in testing and some assumptions about the way the brain works that I view as ‘plausible’ given the state of the art, but far from ‘proven’
Using the suggested framework, those would be class 2 not class 3.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/susantardanico/2012/03/28/entire-management-team-killed-a-ceos-turnaround-story/ accident or successful class 3 assassination? As I understand it, analysis of these situations can be aided by wearing the correct headgear: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TinfoilHat
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rise_and_Kill_First at least one group of people appear to have accepted at least some of your argument.
Furthermore, assassinations fall into three categories:
Where the assassin takes credit afterwards (for intimidation, bragging to supporters, etc), where a third party is blamed (to prevent reprisals being directed at the source), and where it is unclear that an assassination was performed (wow IBM got screwed hard by that plane crash).
From the perspective in the OP, it is clear that there is a detection challenge. The most useful categories (to an assassin) are the third and the second, the least useful is the first. An external observer will see only the first category, and a potential subset of the second category, but is unlikely to see many members of the third category.
Maybe they’re very common, and you’re just not seeing the obvious.
And the absolute most attractive job for a psychopath is ‘determiner of who is and is not neuropsychologically fit’.
If you’re a shitty human there’s money to be made as a child psychologist leveraging that. Abuses are common and it’s not hard to issue a pitch like the following: “pay me 30k and I won’t tell the court you’re an unfit parent and send your kids to the foster care system”.
Did you actually learn to speak piraha? Everyone I know totally refused to participate, so I dropped the idea.
Cmon dark side of the moon space telescope and weapons test range.
A 100k potlatch is easy.
If male, do a dangerous looking activity that demonstrates your mastery of some activity with / in front of a group of your closest friends, then bring them to a wild party with plentiful dopamine agonists and easy sex with attractive women (cocaine and hookers).
If female, pay young and attractive females to do your bidding, dress yourself up to be as pretty as you can, and go somewhere where you can be seen by as many (ideally high status) people as possible.
Repeat until out of money.
Try to avoid alcohol, strip clubs, slot machines, and canned hunting, as they are cheap and shitty imitations.
Enron’s inner circle did company retreats with atv riding followed by wild parties. Larry Ellison owns a fighter jet and pays a 25k noise fine whenever he takes it out at 3am.
I initially wrote a lot more, with activity recommendations, but really this covers it.
If you do want specific advice, it’s available, just invite me to the party.
You know, for science.
I would be surprised if you could not figure out if two people are screwing with moderate confidence using nothing but demographic data and location based metadata dumped into a ML algorithm. The price of false positives is a few unnecessary tests, and is therefore super low, so it doesn’t even have to be that good of a system.
Tinder data could be purchased to build out the initial algorithm, and if there are still challenges, volunteers could be solicited for validation data.
Mixing in public social media (instagram) and actual communications content might help, but after validation of the location system, probably isn’t necessary, but could be analyzed using robots rather than human review, which is apparently acceptable for other purposes.
Is it morally justified to use location metadata (gps), public social media (instagram), communications metadata (contact lists), and communication content to enumerate close contacts that may have spread respiratory viruses? If so, how could it be wrong to use the exact same dataset to fight other diseases with massive social burdens.
I mean sure, some people might cry about their privacy, but the data isn’t theirs, courts have established that it belongs to the communication companies, all of whom are apparently on board with metadata assisted surveillance for security and now public health.
Google and Apple are building the Bluetooth tracker, the Chinese gps app with color coding for exposure risk is a thing, facebook checked instagram to see if people in Italy are social distancing. Nobody is crying about any of these things. This is just a proposal to use the same datasets for the same reason.
Anyone who argues can be labelled pro disease and pushee out of the public debate, just like anyone who complains about flu tracking software can be asked, ‘do you want old people to die’?
The initial system could be instrumented with a color coding scheme, and an app. When people go to dr offices, part of the basic vitals check at the start of a visit is the doctor running a database check and suggesting testing for various conditions based on the color code. The app to check your own color code status could be downloaded by interested users. ‘Show your color’ would become something people just ask each other during intimate encounters.
Most jurisdictions already require that positive tests for certain pathogens (STIs are on this list) be reported to a central authority by doctors, this is a long-standing thing and nobody with an opinion that matters questions it:
Governments could implement this proposal without much public debate by just rolling out a corona app, adding features for different classes of respiratory disease, then adding features for the rest of the ‘reportable pathogens’ that are transmitted by different means. The model could be developed in house using already available data (reported tests and location metadata).
We can look back at this post in five years and see how things have moved. Good luck stopping it if you think this is morally repugnant as you apparently do.
So three years with a good anki deck would be more valuable than sitting classes in terms of remembering the useful stuff?
This and the other 4 stories from a mathematician turned sci-fi author have aged well. Hope you enjoy them as much as I did when I read them.
Hy is amazing, and I want to learn more about your small data approach. I do not work in quant finance
We need a rapid test to identify people with immunity, so they can go back to work.
Quarantine is worth it, hospitals are overwhelmed, but it is failing, and will continue to fail. The sooner we can identify people who have gotten it and recovered, then put those people to work in high exposure occupations, the sooner we can restart the economy.
The classes of treatment needed here are as follows:
Rapid pcr test: expensive, and needed for surveillance of key workers, as well as contact tracing. We have this, but it won’t scale.
Vaccine: this enables eradication, but is a minimum of 18 months away, and the effort may fail
Post exposure prophylaxis: something given before or immediately after exposure that stops the disease in its tracks (healthcare workers need this, if antimalarials do the job, yay we know those are safe and effective prophylactically)
Symptomatic relief: something given when early symptoms show, which pregents the development of catastrophic symptoms (the malaria drug will hopefully fit this)
Catastrophic care: more and better ventilators and ways of managing ards/cytokine storm. Gl with this, we wanted it before thia crisis.
Rapid antibody test: identifies patients who are exposed. Two weeks after a positive test, if the patient hasn’t been admitted to a hospital, it will be safe to say that that particular patient will not require that level of care and is probably no longer contagious.
We need the rapid antibody test, and we need about a billion of them, do rolling tests, if someone has a positive test and thinks they had symptoms > 1 week prior, return them to work and tell them to avoid anyone with a negative test for a week, if they can.
Is there a working definition for anti-rationalist?
I think that people have to use abstractions and beliefs taken on faith just to exist in the world. I also think that if you are not really disciplined about stating your ‘I just assume blank to be true’ beliefs, you will end up with a bunch of unstated assumptions worming their way into your psyche that will lead you to weird and unhealthy places (would SSC categorize this as ‘Moloch’?)
Puritanical sexual beliefs (those practiced by 1600s Puritans in Massachusetts Bay) are in my opinion a good example of potentially healthy, but utterly irrational dogmas. To summarize (I have a source somewhere):
Married sex is a sacrament, unmarried sex is a grave sin. (Married being a social state that is easy for two people to enter but hard for them to leave)
Conceiving children is important and good.
Both parties much achieve orgasm during the act of intercourse to conceive a child.
Lack of sexual satisfaction is grounds for divorce by either party.
The details of ‘sex’ are explicitly left undefined.
One of those beliefs (orgasm and conception) is objectively false, but may be socially useful. The others are simply communally agreed upon truths.
Rationalism that leads to nihilistic hedonism and acrasia seems like a bad idea, even if life is pointless and the universe is actively hostile. I think I’m in step with this community’s ethos when I assert that most people accidentally end up with a variety of false beliefs. I think I break with the rest of this community in my assertion that maintaining carefully chosen, but objectively false, beliefs is a good idea.
Life has been way better since becoming an adherent of https://warhammer40k.fandom.com/wiki/Chaos_Undivided
You should try it!
From a strictly lolbertarian perspective, good vaccines are a shitty business to be in, shitty vaccines are a great business to be in.
Real vaccine: capital intensive, may or may not succeed despite best efforts, side effects will probably be present, requires that you produce insane amounts and successfully market to every potential customer or it doesn’t work. In the best case where you actually achieve maximum distribution, the pathogen is gone, and you’ll never sell another one, so if you didn’t profit in the first rush, you’ll never see your money again.
Alex jones colloidal silver: I tell you it works, if you’re not dead in a year, you’re obviously another satisfied customer, here buy another bullshit vaccine from me.
Second product is better for the seller than the first, capital investment is zero, marketing cost can find efficiencies in cost per customer, repeat business is probable.
If you can come up with a business model that makes good vaccines profitable in the current environment, absent aggressive government subsidies, you should start that business and shout your model from the rooftops, because most people in biotech would (angrily) agree with my summary.
Source: have thrown this at many biotech executives and government officers involved in vaccine procuremrnt. Have gotten head nodding.
Here’s the squeeze. Jobs slow down, people are told to quarantine, people who are paycheck to paycheck fail to make rent. People renting to them have mortgages, they don’t get rent, they miss their mortgage payment.
That happens enough, bank is now a landlord, bank does not want to be a landlord, house rots, tenant is booted.
Same for a business, business operates on margin, customers stop paying, margin debts not paid, bank now owns failing business. Bank does firesale, functioning business is now a pile of auctioned off crap.
Monetary policy tools (zero interest rate overnight loans, no reserve requirement) don’t trickle down to the masses. I can’t get a zero interest loan, neither can anyone who is paycheck to paycheck, but I sure can get extortionate rates from a payday lender or a credit card! I also can’t negotiate my existing rates to zero interest.
If someone wants a new loan for a new venture, now is a great time, maybe.
If you are the Fed and want to intervene to protect banks margins, do what you’re doing. The banks now own a bunch of small businesses and houses. If you want to help small business owners and homeowners, maybe buy soon to be delinquent debt from the banks at a deep discount, forgive portions of it, sell it back to the banks at a profit later. Is this quantitative easing?
If you want to protect everyone...I have this idea and need to be told why it is dumb (seriously, not an economist, pretty sure this sucks just don’t see why)
Use IRS estimates of income from the previous year, create ‘universal economic manipulation fund’. Every month, everyone, based on tax bracket gets either a check or a bill, the amount is unknown prior to the end of the month. In fat years, everyone pays, in bad times when the Fed needs to “drop $100s from helicopters” the check is big, biggest at the bottom. Nobody can rely on it as a source of living expenses and become ‘welfare or UBI dependent’, but a sudden windfall gets spent instantly by people at the bottom and lets people do things like make rent, pay utility bills, and go grocery shopping.
Again, I’m sure this is stupid, I just don’t see why. If it isn’t stupid, please call someone wth access to Mnuchin and tell him.