I wrote a long post laying out the evidence for the lab leak theory. It’s very likely that when the US intelligence community reports on 25. August on their data about the orgins of the COVID-19 they will conclude that it was a lab leak. This then will lead to the discovery that the virology community mislead the public and Fauci will be forced to resign. Once he’s resigned a senate committee will have a lot of fun asking him how the funding decision for Baric & Shi was made in 2015 while the gain of function ban was in place and why the safety framework for gain of function research that was instituted after the ban was lifted in 2019 was never applied to the grant even so it was paid till 2019. They will also enjoy subpoenaing Twitter and Facebook for the documents about how those started censoring the lab leak hypothesis.
These events make it quite likely that we have a huge crisis of faith in the medical establishment. Milton Freedman used to say: “Only a crisis—actual or perceived—produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable.”
There are likely two months to plan what to do once things blow up and it might be valuable to plan for the scenario. Is this the time where structural change to the medical system can be made? What solutions should be proposed to deal with malicious and incompetent scientists?
Unfortunately, there’s a good chance this will happen while we have a new SARS-CoV-2 variant that would be better fought by giving a third vaccination dose. It might be pretty important to have Novavax around as an alternative to the current vaccines to give people alternatives to the current solutions.
Lastly, this scenario might be worth trading on. This isn’t financial advice, but if you want to trade it might be worthwhile about coming up with your own probability for this event happening and thinking through what it will do to the markets.