The report will be issued by the end of August (95%) [usually I wouldn’t worry much about this, but it’s crucial for trading decisions!]
As far as timing goes, I don’t think the loss of trust will happen in parallel with the report being released. It’s the start of more questions being asked.
A new variant appears, in 2021 (80%)
Virus constantly mutate so whether or not you define something as a new variant is a matter of definition. The Delta that we have right now manages to have r>1 in the US, UK and Germany despite it being summer.
...and subpoena Twitter and Facebook re censorship of the lab leak hypothesis (20%) [another conjunction, and kinda off-topic from virology]
Given that Fauci and Farrar seem to be very directly responsible for the censorship of Twitter and Facebook happening when it did happen. It might be off-topic from virology but it’s far from offtopic from virologists.
As far as timing goes, I don’t think the loss of trust will happen in parallel with the report being released. It’s the start of more questions being asked.
Virus constantly mutate so whether or not you define something as a new variant is a matter of definition. The Delta that we have right now manages to have r>1 in the US, UK and Germany despite it being summer.
Given that Fauci and Farrar seem to be very directly responsible for the censorship of Twitter and Facebook happening when it did happen. It might be off-topic from virology but it’s far from offtopic from virologists.