It’s very likely that when the US intelligence community reports on 25. August on their data about the orgins of the COVID-19 they will conclude that it was a lab leak.
Are you open to betting on this?
GJOpen community is at 9% that the report will conclude that lab leak is more likely than not, I’m at 12%.
In particular, my actual credence in lab leak is higher (~45%) but I’m guessing the most likely outcome of the report is that it’s inconclusive, and that political pressures will play a large role in the outcome.
Are you open to betting on this? GJOpen community is at 9% that the report will conclude that lab leak is more likely than not, I’m at 12%.
In particular, my actual credence in lab leak is higher (~45%) but I’m guessing the most likely outcome of the report is that it’s inconclusive, and that political pressures will play a large role in the outcome.
This Metaculus question with a slightly different operationalization, and a longer timeframe, says 39% right now.