Bureaucrat. Penguin enthusiast.
JohnofCharleston
Karma: 450
In the ‘future plans’ section of your 2024 fundraising post, you briefly mentioned slowly building out an FHI-of-the-west as one of the things for which you wish you had the time & funding.
I think this is happening, albeit slowly and piecemeal. There are several resident scholars at Lighthaven now, and I know some writers who have used the equivalent of “visiting scholar” positions at Lighthaven as a first step in moving to the Bay full-time. It might be worth making this more legible, though I can imagine counterarguments too.
Yeah, I went looking for the decompression zone and didn’t find it. Gave up and talked to the crowd instead.
Most of our events aren’t open access!
I suspect there’s a growing list of tech folks a few degrees of separation away from the community who’ve started coming to Lighthaven events. I met several people at the Solstice afterparty who did not even know that it was an afterparty for another event at all.
I am also pretty confused who would show up to the afterparty to mock Solstice. What a weird move.
Followed up with DM.
Thank you for running Solstice this year, and for starting this tradition.
It’s been several days, but I still don’t know how I feel about it. My thoughts seem too disorganized and contradictory to fit in the feedback form, though I did try.
Emotional Arc
I watched the livestream of the 2022 Bay Solstice, and came in person to the 2024 Bay Solstice. I found them both to be really moving, each a useful call to action in their own way. You warned us that Solstice this year would be unusually dark. I took that seriously, and braced myself.
This year’s solstice was difficult to bear. The middle hour was particularly painful for me, surfacing grief and anger that I thought I had processed. The uplift section at the end felt more intellectual than emotional. Ordinarily that might be a good fit for me. In context it landed like a pale imitation, weakly argued, compared to what came before.
I left 2024′s solstice with a sense of defiance, spurred to do my part with righteous indignation against the laws of nature that offend my values. I left 2025′s angry and sad. Depression as a service.
I recognize a lot of this is particular to me, but felt I should share the data point.
Overall I’m glad this year’s version existed. I’m glad you ran this experiment, I appreciate the artistic strength and coherence. But I think it wasn’t for me. I probably shouldn’t come to future versions that are similarly dark, unless I’m starting from a significantly better place emotionally.
Afterparty
I found the afterparty particularly infuriating. I went looking for the decompression sessions, found Damon briefly, but didn’t really find my way in. Instead I talked to people and eavesdropped on loud public conversations. I feel I got a reasonably representative sample of the crowd. Most of the people I heard from at the afterparty had not been to Solstice. Several didn’t even know what it was.
The people who came only for the afterparty varied widely in motivation. One person told me they left Solstice after ten minutes because the tone wasn’t for them, but came to the afterparty to discuss, which I admired. Several others knew Solstice wasn’t for them but wanted to see friends who were in town—fair enough.
A vocal minority thought Solstice was dumb and cringe and came to the afterparty to mock it in person. I’m still baffled by this. It was Saturday night in one of the world’s greatest cities. There were other places to be. What sort of person chooses to go to an afterparty for an event they despise? If you dislike and disrespect people trying to process emotions from this ritual, why choose to spend time with them? I don’t think we should welcome those who consider that a fun evening out.
I suspect this is a growing problem with Lighthaven events.
Did the new/updated Fooming Shoggoth songs ever get posted somewhere other than Suno? Pinging for Solstice afterparty interest this weekend. @davekasten has specific preferences about which version of these songs to play, which are difficult to fulfil.
Survey surveyed
I see. Yes, I think that mostly does.
I misread you, your paying-your-own way price is more nuanced than I had realized. I think after including things like protecting against not selling all tickets and providing some extra for subsidizing student tickets, it would be noticeably above the break-even price. I think Skyler’s East Coast Megameetup provides a good case study, as of yesterday he had a “Low” price of $65, a “breakeven” price of $100, a “high” price of $120, with several additional sponsorship tiers. He defines the “breakeven” price as something like if everyone paid this and the event sells all tickets, we would break even, and the “high” price as something like if 2/3rds of participants paid High and 1⁄3 paid “Low”, while selling all tickets, the event would breakeven. I think under your schema the “paying your own way price” is the High one ($120), or even higher to account for the risk of not selling out, not the breakeven price of $100, right?
I think yes, this does resolve at least most of our disagreement. I think it’s reasonable to expect the software engineer to contribute more to public goods than the grad student. I think events count as mostly public goods (they’re technically club goods, since they’re somewhat rival and somewhat excludable, but there are still substantial spillover effects from events that should provide you value by binding the community together even if you don’t go, so I think rounding them to public goods is close enough.) Descriptively, not endorsing, I think some in the community would expect the software engineer to pay more than $120 or $135 (building in sales risk) for the East Coast Rationalist Megameetup, unless they have some good reason to have a low willingness to pay. But your framework has a lot to recommend it, and I think could reasonably be the median expectation from the community.
I agree with Skyler that it’s not reasonable to describe expecting public goods to be funded more proportionally to income as “stealing,” at least not at the margins we’re typically looking at in practice in the community. But it could get there! If, for instance, there was a social pressure and expectation that the richest 10 people in the community must pay for the whole event, I would describe that social pressure as immoral. I’d probably call it something like an “unjust entitlement to someone’s resources”, rather than stealing, but these are mainly prudential questions with fuzzy boundaries.
Separately, great point on labeling the “break-even” price explicitly. I also find that practice helpful for calibrating expectations. I forgot to do that for a recent event but I probably should have.
I agree. The gift economy framework is a useful lens to view a lot of this, in particular labor. But ticket pricing tiers are pure price discrimination, very market-shaped, and that is good. I don’t think pricing is mostly about charity, I think it is mostly about distinguishing willingness to pay, enforced by social norms.
A few examples illustrate the point:
If a rationalist software engineer making $500k doesn’t enjoy Solstices but is dragged along as someone’s date, I think he should reasonably pay the lowest (subsidized) price. I expect someone would raise an eyebrow at that, and then he should explain, and everyone would recognize “Ah, yes, you have a low willingness to pay for this event, this is the tier system working as intended, thank you for the information.”
If a rationalist software engineer making $500k enjoys Solstices and pays the subsidized or even the break-even rate, I predict that would probably be seen as a defection, albeit minor. Some flavors of gift economies would also see this as a defection[1], but I think the New England genteel/egalitarian gift economy that Skyler is describing would not.
I think a key feature of gift economies is that you’re actually discouraged from giving gifts “above your station”. If a relatively poorer family brings a monetarily-expensive dish to the church potluck, or tries to donate too much to the annual capital fund without a good reason, this would be seen as embarrassing in some way, and actively discouraged. But if a graduate student who isn’t independently wealthy really loves solstices, and chooses to pay twice the list price, I predict that would be interpreted as “wow, thank you for the vote of confidence, I’m glad you appreciate this event.”
More thoughts on this in my Ticket Pricing Strategy post.
- ^
You would absolutely get a bitchy letter about this from Ashur-uballit I. See one of my favorite letters of all time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amarna_letter_EA_16
Dan, thanks, that helped diagnose the problem.
Looks like I have two separate Lighthaven Waypoint accounts associated with my email address. My work computer can only see the account that has Solstice Season access. My phone and home computer can only see the account that has LessOnline, Summer Camp, and Manifest 2025. Unsure how waypoint sorting between the two accounts, but I used my work computer to pay for Solstice Season so there must be a token or cookie somewhere.
I imagine Ray is slammed this week, I’ll reach out on Intercom to try to merge or fix.
I’m seeing this too. May be an Eastern Time Zone issue?
When I first registered for the West Coast Megameetup I had access to a LessOnline-style calendar and set of bios through:
https://www.waypoint.lighthaven.space/events
However now that’s no longer accessible, I’m only seeing LessOnline, Summer Camp, and Manifest from earlier this year. Reporting in case it’s a bug.
Maneuver warfare. Combined Arms Offensives. Breakthrough operations against prepared defenses in high-intensity conflicts. Counter-offensives to stop enemy advances (i.e. Kursk).
Here’s some published US Army discussion of this problem. Yes, Armor officers have tanks and are motivated to say they’re the solution to every problem. But they have a point that other countries failing to successfully execute combined arms does not mean that NATO would. There’s some things we’re good at, skills that we’ve invested in disproportionately compared to peer competitors. Joint Operations at all scales (nations, services, combined arms), is top of that list.
https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/steel-in-the-storm-recent-wars-as-guides-for-armor-transformation/
I’d be interested to discuss this more sometime.
I’ll be at Lighthaven next weekend, Friday and Saturday, happy to discuss in person. This isn’t my focus, but I can present some common views. I can’t discuss specific developing tech or countermeasures, and generally don’t know the specifics anyway. Some sort of countermeasure always develops, though how costly and effective it is, how it changes the various warfare niches, remains to be seen.
Who would win in a fight: an Abrams or six million dollars worth of drone troops?
It’s worth noting that tanks will basically always lose a one-on-one fight to dismounted troops of an equivalent cost-to-equip, given reasonable cover, morale, and equipment. This was true in 1940, in 1970, in 2000, and now. Sending unscreened tank columns alone into battle in anything other than a flat desert is suicidal. Tanks shine in combined arms, but are vulnerable on their own. Combined arms warfare is extremely difficult to coordinate; neither Russia nor Ukraine have been able to pull it off much in recent years, with the initial Kursk offensive as a notable exception. It shouldn’t surprise us that heavy tanks struggle in geography they’re not suited for, used by armies who are unable to use them to best effect. That is not the only relevant scenario.
NATO is certainly not “dangerously unaware” that drones are flipping the table of armored warfare. Drones are a huge focus of the new Army Secretary, DoGE, and major defense contractors (particularly Anduril). A few months ago, we had what was sadly not called “Bring Your Drone to Work Day” with all sorts of new prototypes set up in the Pentagon courtyard for us bureaucrats to see and touch and get a real felt sense for what’s new.
But quadcopters aren’t everything! They certainly haven’t allowed Russia to conquer Ukraine, if anything they seem to favor the defender. American military power was already built on drones, in terms of intelligence, electronic warfare, loiter munitions, and even “traditional” precision bombs (as @Hastings pointed out below).
Yes, the incumbent Defense Primes are over-specialized in “exquisite” hardware that’s expensive, technologically advanced, and produced in low numbers. But that also means they’re very incentivized to develop drone countermeasures. Most things they try won’t work. Some likely will. Even early things they’ve tested have helped in Ukraine, it’s just not the case that an Abrams tank is “dangerously outdated”. There are more threats to a heavy tank than there have been in the past, and lighter tanks are a better fit for Ukraine’s geography, but you’d still rather have the tank than not. This is not always the case!
Western militaries are acutely aware of that viral tweet from a while back:
every Pacific naval encounter from late 1943 onward is like the IJN Golden Kirin, Glorious Harbinger of Eternal Imperial Dawn versus six identical copies of the USS We Built This Yesterday supplied by a ship that does nothing but make birthday cakes for the other ships
Original source lost, but here’s an exampleYes, if given the choice, you should prefer six identical copies of the USS We Built This Yesterday + the ice cream support ship. That doesn’t mean the IJN Golden Kirin, Glorious Harbinger of Eternal Imperial Dawn was useless.
Disclosure: Literally written from the Pentagon. (Off duty, speaking in a personal capacity, waited to type this until after hours, etc.)
Understood, thanks for explaining. I’ll reach out to Foresight about a one-day ticket, since I’ll be in the area.
Just to confirm, the unconference stuff will be Friday and Saturday, but not Sunday? I was planning to fly out Friday evening, but if this is the plan I’ll swap flights.
Another thing I’ve been thinking about is a retreat on something like “high-integrity AI x-risk comms” where people who care a lot about x-risk and care a lot about communicating it accurately to a broader audience can talk to each other.
I think this is a great idea that would serve an urgent need. I’d urge to you do it in the near future.
Agree with both the OP and Habryka’s pitch. The Meetup Organizers Retreat hosted at Lighthaven in 2022 was a huge inflection point for my personal involvement with the community.
I intend to donate an amount on the order of $5k.
This is several percent of my income, it works out to roughly two weeks of my labor. I could tell a story about how the ideas developed by this website improve my productivity by at least that amount. I could mention that I bought the appreciated stock I am donating because of a few specific posts about noticing confusion and market prices. The gratitude framing would hold together, but it’s not the real reason.
I notice that I have reinvested far more than two weeks of my time this year into the community. I spent two weeks at Lighthaven specifically. I had the seed of an idea in a comfy Lighthaven nook, then gathered some friends in Glass Hall and developed it. I let Eneasz peer pressure me into doing a podcast, wrote it up in my first LessWrong post, then expanded those ideas into conference talks at LessOnline, Manifest, and EA Global NYC. I attended a ridiculous number of meetups, info sessions, discussion groups, “happy hours” both with and without alcohol, developing nuanced preferences between partiful, luma, and eventbrite. I helped edit and promote a book. And schemed to put on a conference locally, with the express intent of Lighthaven-pilling my friends.
I did not have time to do all this. I’m so tired, my apartment is a mess, I’m way behind on my to-do list, my personal life has suffered, and my coworkers have started making jokes about how much time I’m spending in Berkeley. I’m also drug tested more frequently, though I’m sure that’s coincidental. So I don’t think I can make the “thanks for the productivity hack” case with a straight face.
The real reason I’m donating is that I think we’re on to something here. Even if I wanted to, I wouldn’t be able to stop thinking about these topics. I’m excited to contribute in my small way to the infrastructure and the ideas. I expect my gratitude to date will pale in comparison to how this place and this community benefit us all in the future.