I’ll be at Lighthaven next weekend, Friday and Saturday, happy to discuss in person. This isn’t my focus, but I can present some common views. I can’t discuss specific developing tech or countermeasures, and generally don’t know the specifics anyway. Some sort of countermeasure always develops, though how costly and effective it is, how it changes the various warfare niches, remains to be seen.
Who would win in a fight: an Abrams or six million dollars worth of drone troops?
It’s worth noting that tanks will basically always lose a one-on-one fight to dismounted troops of an equivalent cost-to-equip, given reasonable cover, morale, and equipment. This was true in 1940, in 1970, in 2000, and now. Sending unscreened tank columns alone into battle in anything other than a flat desert is suicidal. Tanks shine in combined arms, but are vulnerable on their own. Combined arms warfare is extremely difficult to coordinate; neither Russia nor Ukraine have been able to pull it off much in recent years, with the initial Kursk offensive as a notable exception. It shouldn’t surprise us that heavy tanks struggle in geography they’re not suited for, used by armies who are unable to use them to best effect. That is not the only relevant scenario.
Maneuver warfare. Combined Arms Offensives. Breakthrough operations against prepared defenses in high-intensity conflicts. Counter-offensives to stop enemy advances (i.e. Kursk).
Here’s some published US Army discussion of this problem. Yes, Armor officers have tanks and are motivated to say they’re the solution to every problem. But they have a point that other countries failing to successfully execute combined arms does not mean that NATO would. There’s some things we’re good at, skills that we’ve invested in disproportionately compared to peer competitors. Joint Operations at all scales (nations, services, combined arms), is top of that list. https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/steel-in-the-storm-recent-wars-as-guides-for-armor-transformation/
I’ll be at Lighthaven next weekend, Friday and Saturday, happy to discuss in person. This isn’t my focus, but I can present some common views. I can’t discuss specific developing tech or countermeasures, and generally don’t know the specifics anyway. Some sort of countermeasure always develops, though how costly and effective it is, how it changes the various warfare niches, remains to be seen.
It’s worth noting that tanks will basically always lose a one-on-one fight to dismounted troops of an equivalent cost-to-equip, given reasonable cover, morale, and equipment. This was true in 1940, in 1970, in 2000, and now. Sending unscreened tank columns alone into battle in anything other than a flat desert is suicidal. Tanks shine in combined arms, but are vulnerable on their own. Combined arms warfare is extremely difficult to coordinate; neither Russia nor Ukraine have been able to pull it off much in recent years, with the initial Kursk offensive as a notable exception. It shouldn’t surprise us that heavy tanks struggle in geography they’re not suited for, used by armies who are unable to use them to best effect. That is not the only relevant scenario.
Ok, interesting- but what would be the relevant scenario, then, in which it’s better to have a tank than the drone force I described?
Maneuver warfare. Combined Arms Offensives. Breakthrough operations against prepared defenses in high-intensity conflicts. Counter-offensives to stop enemy advances (i.e. Kursk).
Here’s some published US Army discussion of this problem. Yes, Armor officers have tanks and are motivated to say they’re the solution to every problem. But they have a point that other countries failing to successfully execute combined arms does not mean that NATO would. There’s some things we’re good at, skills that we’ve invested in disproportionately compared to peer competitors. Joint Operations at all scales (nations, services, combined arms), is top of that list.
https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/steel-in-the-storm-recent-wars-as-guides-for-armor-transformation/
I probably won’t be around then alas but if I am ill try to find you! Thanks!