I do mind, after having spent several minutes annotating images of self-driving cards
I think it’s worst when you have edge cases like the Google Captcha that shows 16 tiles and you have to choose which tiles contain the item they are looking for and some of the tails contain it only a little bit on the edge.
Karma, the amount of people reached by a post and the impact it has on people correlate with each other but neither determines the others.
What is your advice now?
How about looking at the posts that he writes? https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets and https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybQdaN3RGvC685DZX/the-emh-is-false-specific-strong-evidence are posts that advocate concrete trades.
Looking at the other posts it seems he shares some other advice at some EA groups.
Why do you believe it isn’t a combination of both?
Having extreme political opinion is unfortunately correlated with being politically engaged. A majority of the people who don’t have extreme opinions aren’t engaged enough for a project like this. Even in the general population a majority doesn’t vote in primaries.
I would expect that it makes more sense to focus on voting reform in individual states then to build up such a pesudo party.
I’m not talking about sterilization of the human body but sterilization of the hospital enviroment. It leads to selection effects for bacteria that are adapted to the hospital enviroment.
If you have plants in a room then part of the room is filled with bacteria that interact with plants and that creates a more diverse microbial enviroment. Having plants in a room makes it more likely that a random bacteria in the room is a plant pathogen compared to a human pathogen.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2014.00491/full#B7 is a paper that for example argues for maintaining microbial diversity in the different environments as an important issue to avoid pathogen outbreaks.
I would expect that in 50 years you will have plants with microbiomes in hospitals that are selected for hosting a microbiome that increases the surrounding microbial diversity and not hosting human pathogens. Hospitals will move from the paradigm of “everything should be sterile” to the paradigm of “there should be a lot of microbial diversity without human pathogens”.
The will regularly test what bacteria are around and when there are problems use a mix of adding new bacteria to the enviroment that contribute to healthy microbial diversity and phage therapy against those bacteria that are unwelcome.
Having cheap ways to measure the microbial enviroment via cheaper gene sequencing will lead there but there will be a lot about how to have a good microbial enviroment that we have very little understanding of today.
Contra the idea that the internet is to blame, polarization seems historically to be the “natural” state in both the USA and elsewhere. To get less of it you need specific mechanism that have a moderating effect
The US got steadily more polarized along political lines over the last decades by metrics such as how important it is for people that their spouse shares their party affiliation while getting less polarized along race by those metrics.
Matt Talibbi’s Hate Inc is a book that describes the process over the last decades well.
It seems to me that a winner-take-all election for an immensely powerful head of the executive branch of the government necessarily creates a two-party system (or something similar to a two-party system, as has happened in Germany), even if you ignore all other issues.
Germany has neither a winner-take-all election nor a two-party system.
Given the numbers COVID-19 vaccines are less effective against asymptomatic infections then they are against symptomatic infections. We also see them to be more effective against hospitalization then against symptomatic infections.
Given that death is at the tail, they are likely more protective against death then asymptomatic or symptomatic infections.
The effect they have on long Covid is less clear. Long Covid won’t kill you immediately but can plausibly cost you a few years of lifespan.
Young women have significant risk of blood clots because the pill has significant risk of blood clots and they are the demographic for the pill.
The fact that we see the cases in that group suggests that it’s not about “certain age groups” but taking the pill.
Speaking about “certain age groups” might be the result of too much political correctness getting in the way.
In order for antibiotic resistance to be relevant, you have to get infected in the first place, and if hospitals were consistent about sterilization then they wouldn’t have infection rates any higher than any other buildings.
It’s the sterilization that creates the niche in which those bacteria thrive because they face less competition then they would face in other normal buildings which are populated by diverse bacteria. No matter how much you sterilize you are not going to go to zero bacteria in a space occupied by humans and when human are a primary vector of moving bacteria around in the space you select for bacteria’s that actually interact with humans.
To be fair, they didn’t know which doses where contaminated at the time and there was no test to determine which doses were contaminated.
I unfortunately know very little about building bridges, so I can’t really tell how a new paradigm might improve the status quo. It might be possible to switch the composition of a bridge in a way where it can be created in a more automated fashion then it’s currently created.
When it comes to actually preventing infections I do think there’s room for a new paradigm that replaces “let’s kill all bacteria” with “let’s see that we have an ecosystem of bacteria without those that are problematic”.
Moving to that new paradigm for infections has similar problems to improving on cancer treatment and prevention.
Some things we basically understand: building bridges and skyscrapers, treating and preventing infections, satellites and GPS, cars and ships, oil wells and gas pipelines and power plants, cell networks and databases and websites.
If we understand basically understand building bridges, then why are we building so few new bridges and those that we build end up being so expensive? The fact that building bridges with the advanced technology we have today isn’t cheaper but more expensive then building bridges 100 years ago suggests to me that we don’t understand the subject well.
As far as treating and preventing infections goes we are actually understanding the topic better then hundred years ago but we still don’t understand it well enough to prevent people from getting new infections in world-class hospitals, partly even treatment-resistentant ones.
The fact that we have existing paradigms for approaching both of those issues doesn’t limit us to think of new paradigms to approach them better.
Elevators that don’t have a way to ventilate themselves might be very risky. A few days ago I was thinking. Well isn’t it smelly in here. Sometimes it smells like someone smoked. It’s possible that the exhald coronavirus stays a while in the air in the elevator.
I think reading this I update towards using them less reading this.
You don’t need to add other hypothesis to know that there might be unknown additional hypothesis.
If Adams Express paid $10 a month on $500 of stock, that’s a 24% annual dividend yield, which is far better than any similar investment today, and presumably this easily covered the payments on the loan.
When I read the tales of crypto-markets on LessWrong, there are also people who speak similarly about yield. There’s risk but the same might be true with the stocks back in the day.
Similarly, if you have to hit w more than a few times, you’re probably doing something wrong.
Do you mean that for both doing “4w” and “wwww”?
Antibody buildup against polyethylene glycol or PEG. One issue of concern was voiced in The Importance of Poly(ethylene glycol) Alternativesfor Overcoming PEG Immunogenicity in DrugDelivery and Bioconjugation:
The administration of PEGylated drugs can lead to the production of anti-PEG antibodies(anti-PEG immunoglobulin M (IgM)) and immune response (Figure 1) . Due to these phenomena,the PEG-conjugation of drugs/NPs often only provides a biological advantage during the first dose of a treatment course. By the second dose, the PEGylated agents have been recognized by themononuclear phagocyte system in the spleen and liver and are rapidly cleared from circulation.
Polyethylene glycol or PEG is the lipid with which the mRNA is coated and it seems the body starts attacking it with repeated treatments.
This means repeated usage of drugs that contain PEG reduces the efficiency per dose and increases side effects. However after speaking with a doctor who told me a lot about the involved gears, I don’t think this is a huge deal for giving a human two doses of an mRNA vaccine.
Let’s think about an example. I want to move my cursor.
I might be in a situation when 3W, lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll, / with something else $b are all valid moves to get at my target location for the cursor.
This has probably something like 3-5 seconds latency because I not only have to think about where my cursor should go about also about the way to get there.
On the other hand without VIM, having a proper keyboard that makes arrow keys easy to reach I might have a latency of maybe 700 milliseconds.
VIM frequently costs mental processing capacity because I have to model my code in my head in concepts like words (for w and b) that I wouldn’t otherwise.