Self Fulfilling/​Re­fut­ing Prophecies

TagLast edit: 3 Jan 2021 21:47 UTC by Yoav Ravid

A Self Fulfilling Prophecy is a prophecy that, when made, affects the environment such that it becomes more likely. similarly, a Self Refuting Prophecy is a prophecy that when made makes itself less likely. This is also relevant for beliefs that can affect reality directly without being voiced, for example, the belief “I’m confident” can increase a person confidence, thus making it true, while the opposite belief can reduce a person’s confidence, thus also making it true.

Related pages: Social Reality

The Parable of Pre­dict-O-Matic

abramdemski15 Oct 2019 0:49 UTC
310 points
43 comments14 min readLW link2 reviews

Magic Shoes

onur24 Mar 2021 21:14 UTC
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Omega and self-fulfilling prophecies

Richard_Kennaway19 Mar 2011 17:23 UTC
14 points
19 comments1 min readLW link

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempere3 Dec 2020 22:00 UTC
122 points
29 comments9 min readLW link

Self-Su­per­vised Learn­ing and AGI Safety

Steven Byrnes7 Aug 2019 14:21 UTC
29 points
9 comments12 min readLW link

Thoughts on safety in pre­dic­tive learning

Steven Byrnes30 Jun 2021 19:17 UTC
19 points
17 comments19 min readLW link

Self-fulfilling correlations

PhilGoetz26 Aug 2010 21:07 UTC
146 points
50 comments3 min readLW link

Self-Fulfilling Prophe­cies Aren’t Always About Self-Awareness

John_Maxwell18 Nov 2019 23:11 UTC
14 points
7 comments4 min readLW link

Self-fulfilling val­ues of time

KatjaGrace18 Mar 2017 22:00 UTC
1 point
0 comments2 min readLW link

Fifty Shades of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

PhilGoetz24 Jul 2014 0:17 UTC
38 points
87 comments2 min readLW link

An ex­am­ple of self-fulfilling spu­ri­ous proofs in UDT

cousin_it25 Mar 2012 11:47 UTC
33 points
43 comments2 min readLW link

Notes on Op­ti­mism, Hope, and Trust

David Gross20 Jan 2021 23:00 UTC
11 points
0 comments17 min readLW link

Defin­ing Myopia

abramdemski19 Oct 2019 21:32 UTC
32 points
18 comments8 min readLW link

Ran­dom Thoughts on Pre­dict-O-Matic

abramdemski17 Oct 2019 23:39 UTC
34 points
3 comments9 min readLW link

De­ci­sion The­o­ries: A Semi-For­mal Anal­y­sis, Part II

orthonormal6 Apr 2012 18:59 UTC
26 points
28 comments7 min readLW link

Luck II: Ex­pect­ing White Swans

fowlertm15 Dec 2013 17:40 UTC
10 points
87 comments7 min readLW link

Poli­tics is way too meta

Rob Bensinger17 Mar 2021 7:04 UTC
271 points
46 comments11 min readLW link1 review

De­scrip­tive vs. pre­scrip­tive optimism

jasoncrawford22 Jan 2022 19:50 UTC
18 points
1 comment1 min readLW link

En­courage­ment to In­still Con­fi­dence?

Zvi18 Feb 2022 22:30 UTC
16 points
5 comments4 min readLW link

The Parable of Pre­dict-O-Matic

abramdemski15 Oct 2019 0:49 UTC
310 points
43 comments14 min readLW link2 reviews

Fore­cast­ing is a responsibility

DirectedEvolution5 Dec 2020 0:40 UTC
23 points
23 comments2 min readLW link

Fish­e­rian Ru­n­away as a de­ci­sion-the­o­retic problem

Bunthut20 Mar 2021 16:34 UTC
11 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

Prophetic Hazard

onur16 Apr 2021 10:09 UTC
−1 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

Con­di­tion­ing Gen­er­a­tive Models for Alignment

Jozdien18 Jul 2022 7:11 UTC
52 points
8 comments20 min readLW link

Train­ing goals for large lan­guage models

Johannes Treutlein18 Jul 2022 7:09 UTC
28 points
5 comments19 min readLW link

How evolu­tion­ary lineages of LLMs can plan their own fu­ture and act on these plans

Roman Leventov25 Dec 2022 18:11 UTC
36 points
16 comments8 min readLW link

Proper scor­ing rules don’t guaran­tee pre­dict­ing fixed points

16 Dec 2022 18:22 UTC
58 points
8 comments21 min readLW link

Stop-gra­di­ents lead to fixed point predictions

28 Jan 2023 22:47 UTC
36 points
2 comments24 min readLW link
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