# Prob­a­bil­is­tic Reasoning

TagLast edit: 19 Mar 2022 21:12 UTC by

Probabilistic reasoning is the opposite of black and white thinking.

When you reason in black and white you ask questions like: Is this true? Is this the right thing to do? Am I sick?

When you reason probabilistically you ask questions like: How likely is this? What’s the expected value of this action? What evidence have I seen that I am sick, and what evidence that I’m not? How likely is it that I’m sick without taking any evidence into account?

Reasoning probabilistically allows you to change your mind incrementally, accumulating many small pieces of evidence rather than requiring one overwhelmingly convincing piece.

On LessWrong, ‘probabilistic reasoning’ usually refers to Bayes theorem, which formally defines the optimal way to change your beliefs when you see evidence.

18 Aug 2020 21:14 UTC
176 points

# Up­date Your­self Incrementally

14 Aug 2007 14:56 UTC
104 points

# Reflec­tive con­sis­tency, ran­dom­ized de­ci­sions, and the dan­gers of un­re­al­is­tic thought experiments

7 Dec 2023 3:33 UTC
34 points

# Bayesian up­dat­ing in real life is mostly about un­der­stand­ing your hypotheses

1 Jan 2024 0:10 UTC
62 points

# On co­in­ci­dences and Bayesian rea­son­ing, as ap­plied to the ori­gins of COVID-19

19 Feb 2024 1:14 UTC
62 points

# E.T. Jaynes Prob­a­bil­ity The­ory: The logic of Science I

27 Dec 2023 23:47 UTC
60 points

22 Nov 2021 10:39 UTC
87 points

# Fifty Flips

1 Oct 2023 15:30 UTC
32 points
(h-b-p.github.io)

# Pre­ci­sion of Sets of Forecasts

19 Sep 2023 18:19 UTC
20 points

# Gems from the Wiki: Do The Math, Then Burn The Math and Go With Your Gut

17 Sep 2020 22:41 UTC
60 points
(www.lesswrong.com)

# Con­di­tion­als All The Way Down

30 Sep 2023 21:06 UTC
33 points

# Ab­solute Authority

8 Jan 2008 3:33 UTC
99 points

# What makes a prob­a­bil­ity ques­tion “well-defined”? (Part I)

2 Oct 2022 21:05 UTC
14 points
(naivebayes.substack.com)

# A new Heuris­tic to Up­date on the Cre­dences of Others

21 Jan 2023 21:00 UTC
6 points

21 Jun 2019 7:32 UTC
30 points

# Why Not Subagents?

22 Jun 2023 22:16 UTC
130 points

# Prob­a­bil­is­tic Payor Lemma?

19 Mar 2023 17:57 UTC
69 points

# Beauty and the Bets

27 Mar 2024 6:17 UTC
5 points

# The Ev­i­dence for Ques­tion De­com­po­si­tion is Weak

28 Aug 2023 15:46 UTC
22 points

# [Question] Is LessWrong dead with­out Cox’s the­o­rem?

4 Sep 2021 5:45 UTC
−2 points

# Break­ing the SIA with an ex­po­nen­tially-Sleep­ing Beauty

20 Feb 2022 8:03 UTC
7 points

# [Question] What is the most prob­a­ble AI?

20 Jun 2022 23:26 UTC
−2 points

# Five views of Bayes’ Theorem

2 Jul 2022 2:25 UTC
38 points

# Prob­a­bil­is­tic rea­son­ing for de­scrip­tion and experience

27 Sep 2022 10:57 UTC
0 points

# Dice De­ci­sion Making

10 Mar 2023 13:01 UTC
18 points

# You can’t be­lieve in Bayes

9 Jun 2009 18:03 UTC
15 points

# Boltz­mann brain’s con­di­tional probability

29 Dec 2023 14:44 UTC
5 points

# Every­thing Wrong with Roko’s Claims about an Eng­ineered Pandemic

22 Feb 2024 15:59 UTC
90 points

# Delta’s of Change

19 Mar 2024 21:03 UTC
1 point

# Doubt Certainty

2 Nov 2023 17:43 UTC
4 points

# Some Rules for an Alge­bra of Bayes Nets

16 Nov 2023 23:53 UTC
69 points

# Why I don’t think that the prob­a­bil­ity that AGI kills ev­ery­one is roughly 1 (but rather around 0.995).

30 May 2023 17:54 UTC
−6 points

# Draw­ing Two Aces

3 Jan 2010 10:33 UTC
19 points

# Kling, Prob­a­bil­ity, and Economics

30 Mar 2009 5:15 UTC
1 point

# From game the­ory to play­ers theory

15 Sep 2023 6:23 UTC
−4 points

# How Not to be Stupid: Adorable Maybes

29 Apr 2009 19:15 UTC
1 point

# No Univer­sal Prob­a­bil­ity Space

6 May 2009 2:58 UTC
2 points

# ra­tio­nal­is­tic prob­a­bil­ity(lit­ter­ally just throw­ing shit out there)

4 Oct 2023 17:46 UTC
−30 points

# No One Knows Stuff

12 May 2009 5:11 UTC
9 points

# [Question] Cur­rent State of Prob­a­bil­is­tic Logic

7 Oct 2023 5:06 UTC
3 points

# [Question] Jay­ne­sian in­ter­pre­ta­tion—How does “es­ti­mat­ing prob­a­bil­ities” make sense?

21 Jul 2021 21:36 UTC
4 points