Brand new account, reposting old arguments? Not suspicious at all.

Stoyan and Chiu (2024)

“Just because the market was the epicenter doesn’t mean the pandemic started there,” while technically true, is fairly meaningless. If the center were at the lab every lab leak proponent would be shouting at the top of their lungs this conclusively proves the lab leak theory. Debating one particular statistical analysis doesn’t disprove the very elementary technique of “look at the data, it’s obvious” aka https://xkcd.com/2400/.

The multiple spillover theory might be wrong. But then again, so might all of the analyses that Roko cited in his initial post, including the paper about genetic engineering, the Richard Ebright tweet, the RTK estimates, etc. The point of that part was to show that it’s very easy to generate high Bayes factors if you highball favorable pieces of information, ignore unfavorable ones, make convenient assumptions, and multiply numbers together.

https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability

This analysis is obviously heavily biased. No Bayes factor at all for the cases being at the market? Again, no LL supporter would seriously say the BF would be one if the cases were clustered near the WIV. This is the exact same sort of highly motivated reasoning that Rootclaim applied, and neither of the judges bought it, for the same reason. The CGG analysis is just wrong, etc.

Or explain why the NYT does use the chosen name of other people, like musicians’ stage names.