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Anti-memes: x-risk edition

WillPetillo10 Apr 2025 23:35 UTC

15 points

0 comments7 min readLW link

Forecasting time to automated superhuman coders [AI 2027 Timelines Forecast]

elifland and Nikola Jurkovic

10 Apr 2025 23:10 UTC

35 points

0 comments18 min readLW link

(ai-2027.com)

AI could cause a drop in GDP, even if markets are competitive and efficient

Casey Barkan10 Apr 2025 22:35 UTC

29 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Not The End of All Value

Ben Ihrig10 Apr 2025 20:53 UTC

−13 points

0 comments3 min readLW link

EA Reflections on my Military Career

TomGardiner10 Apr 2025 19:01 UTC

7 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Text First, Evidence Later? Managing Quality and Trust in an Era of AI-Augmented Research

Thehumanproject.ai10 Apr 2025 18:52 UTC

1 point

1 comment5 min readLW link

Nuanced Models for the Influence of Information

ozziegooen10 Apr 2025 18:28 UTC

8 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

Playing in the Creek

Hastings10 Apr 2025 17:39 UTC

396 points

13 comments2 min readLW link

(hgreer.com)

The Three Boxes: A Simple Model for Spreading Ideas

JohnGreer10 Apr 2025 17:15 UTC

6 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

Reactions to METR task length paper are insane

Cole Wyeth10 Apr 2025 17:13 UTC

59 points

43 comments4 min readLW link

Existing Safety Frameworks Imply Unreasonable Confidence

Joe Rogero, yams and Joe Collman

10 Apr 2025 16:31 UTC

46 points

3 comments15 min readLW link

(intelligence.org)

Arguments for and against gradual change

Gustavo Ramires10 Apr 2025 14:43 UTC

3 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

Disempowerment spirals as a likely mechanism for existential catastrophe

Raymond Douglas and owencb

10 Apr 2025 14:37 UTC

74 points

7 comments5 min readLW link

AI #111: Giving Us Pause

Zvi10 Apr 2025 14:00 UTC

26 points

4 comments34 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Forging A New AGI Social Contract

Deric Cheng10 Apr 2025 13:41 UTC

23 points

3 comments7 min readLW link

(agisocialcontract.substack.com)

Why Experienced Professionals Fail to Land High-Impact Roles (FBB #5)

gergogaspar10 Apr 2025 12:46 UTC

12 points

4 comments9 min readLW link

Linkpost to a Summary of “Imagining and building wise machines: The centrality of AI metacognition” by Johnson, Karimi, Bengio, et al.

Chris_Leong10 Apr 2025 11:54 UTC

8 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Grounded Ghosts in the Machine—Friston Blankets, Mirror Neurons, and the Quest for Cooperative AI

Davidmanheim10 Apr 2025 10:15 UTC

9 points

0 comments9 min readLW link

(davidmanheim.com)

New Paper: Infra-Bayesian Decision-Estimation Theory

Vanessa Kosoy and Diffractor

10 Apr 2025 9:17 UTC

77 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)

Electric Lunchbox

jefftk10 Apr 2025 2:40 UTC

15 points

0 comments1 min readLW link

(www.jefftk.com)

Scoping LLMs

erik, David Baek, emile delcourt and 4gate

10 Apr 2025 0:32 UTC

4 points

0 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] How familiar is the Lesswrong community as a whole with the concept of Reward-modelling?

Oxidize9 Apr 2025 23:33 UTC

1 point

8 comments1 min readLW link

What can we learn from expert AGI forecasts?

Benjamin_Todd9 Apr 2025 21:34 UTC

5 points

0 comments5 min readLW link

(80000hours.org)

Thoughts on AI 2027

Max Harms9 Apr 2025 21:26 UTC

222 points

61 comments21 min readLW link

(intelligence.org)

The case for AGI by 2030

Benjamin_Todd9 Apr 2025 20:35 UTC

40 points

6 comments42 min readLW link

(80000hours.org)

Anti-automation policy as a bottleneck to economic growth

mhampton9 Apr 2025 20:12 UTC

4 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

Reasoning models don’t always say what they think

Joe Benton, Ethan Perez, Vlad Mikulik and Fabien Roger

9 Apr 2025 19:48 UTC

28 points

4 comments1 min readLW link

(www.anthropic.com)

Reverse engineering the memory layout of GPU inference

Paul Bricman9 Apr 2025 15:40 UTC

5 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

(noemaresearch.com)

Llama Does Not Look Good 4 Anything

Zvi9 Apr 2025 13:20 UTC

31 points

1 comment16 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Learned pain as a leading cause of chronic pain

SoerenMind9 Apr 2025 11:57 UTC

210 points

38 comments9 min readLW link

Taxonomy of possibility

dkl99 Apr 2025 4:24 UTC

13 points

1 comment5 min readLW link

(dkl9.net)

Short Timelines Don’t Devalue Long Horizon Research

Vladimir_Nesov9 Apr 2025 0:42 UTC

170 points

24 comments1 min readLW link

A Platform for Falsifiable Conjectures and Public Refutation — Would This Be Useful?

PetrusNonius8 Apr 2025 21:09 UTC

1 point

1 comment1 min readLW link

Quantifying SAE Quality with Feature Steerability Metrics

phenomanon8 Apr 2025 20:55 UTC

2 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

MATS is hiring!

Ryan Kidd and VVN

8 Apr 2025 20:45 UTC

8 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

birds and mammals independently evolved intelligence

bhauth8 Apr 2025 20:00 UTC

73 points

23 comments1 min readLW link

(www.quantamagazine.org)

Alignment Faking Revisited: Improved Classifiers and Open Source Extensions

John Hughes, abhayesian, Akbir Khan and Fabien Roger

8 Apr 2025 17:32 UTC

146 points

20 comments12 min readLW link

London Working Group for Short/Medium Term AI Risks

scronkfinkle8 Apr 2025 17:32 UTC

5 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

Thinking Machines

Knight Lee8 Apr 2025 17:27 UTC

3 points

0 comments6 min readLW link

Digital Error Correction and Lock-In

alamerton8 Apr 2025 15:46 UTC

1 point

0 comments5 min readLW link

(alfielamerton.substack.com)

[Question] What faithfulness metrics should general claims about CoT faithfulness be based upon?

Rauno Arike8 Apr 2025 15:27 UTC

24 points

0 comments4 min readLW link

AI 2027: Responses

Zvi8 Apr 2025 12:50 UTC

111 points

3 comments30 min readLW link

(thezvi.wordpress.com)

The first AI war will be in your computer

Viliam8 Apr 2025 9:28 UTC

43 points

10 comments3 min readLW link

Who wants to bet me $25k at 1:7 odds that there won’t be an AI market crash in the next year?

Remmelt8 Apr 2025 8:31 UTC

25 points

19 comments1 min readLW link

A Pathway to Fully Autonomous Therapists

Declan Molony8 Apr 2025 4:10 UTC

6 points

2 comments6 min readLW link

Rethinking Friction: Equity and Motivation Across Domains

eltimbalino8 Apr 2025 3:58 UTC

−1 points

0 comments2 min readLW link

(www.lesswrong.com)

On different discussion traditions

Eugene Shcherbinin7 Apr 2025 23:00 UTC

1 point

0 comments2 min readLW link

Misinformation is the default, and information is the government telling you your tap water is safe to drink

d_el_ez7 Apr 2025 22:28 UTC

10 points

2 comments9 min readLW link

Log-linear Scaling is Worth the Cost due to Gains in Long-Horizon Tasks

shash427 Apr 2025 21:50 UTC

16 points

2 comments1 min readLW link

AI Safety at the Frontier: Paper Highlights, March ’25

gasteigerjo7 Apr 2025 20:17 UTC

9 points

0 comments9 min readLW link

(aisafetyfrontier.substack.com)