I agree with everyone else pointing out that centrally-planned guaranteed payments regardless of final outcome doesn’t sound like a good price discovery mechanism for insurance. You might be able to hack together a better one using https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dLzZWNGD23zqNLvt3/the-apocalypse-bet , although I can’t figure out an exact mechanism.
Superforecasters say the risk of AI apocalypse before 2100 is 0.38%. If we assume whatever price mechanism we come up with tracks that, and value the world at GWP x 20 (this ignores the value of human life, so it’s a vast underestimate), and that AI companies pay it in 77 equal yearly installments from now until 2100, that’s about $100 billion/year. But this seems so Pascalian as to be almost cheating. Anybody whose actions have a >1/25 million chance of destroying the world would owe $1 million a year in insurance (maybe this is fair and I just have bad intuitions about how high 1⁄25 million really is)
An AI company should be able to make some of its payments (to the people whose lives it risks, in exchange for the ability to risk those lives) by way of fractions of the value that their technology manages to capture. Except, that’s complicated by the fact that anyone doing the job properly shouldn’t be leaving their fingerprints on the future. The cosmic endowment is not quite theirs to give (perhaps they should be loaning against their share of it?).
This seems like such a big loophole as to make the plan almost worthless. Suppose OpenAI said “If we create superintelligence, we’re going to keep 10% of the universe for ourselves and give humanity the other 90%” (this doesn’t seem too unfair to me, and the exact numbers don’t matter for the argument). It seems like instead of paying insurance, they can say “Okay, fine, we get 9% and you get 91%” and this would be in some sense a fair trade (one percent of the cosmic endowment is worth much more than $100 billion!) But this also feels like OpenAI moving some numbers around on an extremely hypothetical ledger, not changing anything in real life, and continuing to threaten the world just as much as before.
But if you don’t allow a maneuver like this, it seems like you might ban (through impossible-to-afford insurance) some action that has an 0.38% chance of destroying the world and a 99% chance of creating a perfect utopia forever.
There are probably economic mechanisms that solve all these problems, but this insurance proposal seems underspecified.
Thanks, this is very interesting.
One thing I don’t understand: you write that a major problem with viruses is:
Is this a problem for people who expect to only want one genetic modification during their lifetime?