I don’t give much weight to his diagnosis of problematic group decision mechanisms
I have quite a lot of time for it personally.
The world is dominated by a lot of large organizations that have a lot of dysfunction. Anybody over the age of 40 will just agree with me on this. I think it’s pretty hard to find anybody who would disagree about that who’s been around the world. Our world is full of big organizations that just make a lot of bad decisions because they find it hard to aggregate information from all the different people.
This is roughly Hanson’s reasoning, and you can spell out the details a bit more. (Poor communication between high level decision makers and shop-floor workers, incentives at all levels dissuading truth telling etc). Fundamentally though I find it hard to make a case this isn’t true in /any/ large organization. Maybe the big tech companies can make a case for this, but I doubt it. Office politics and self-interest are powerful forces.
For employment decisions, it’s not clear that there is usable (legally and socially tolerated) information which a market can provide
I roughly agree—this is the point I was trying to make. All the information is already there in interview evaluations. I don’t think Robin is expecting new information though—he’s expecting to combine the information more effectively. I just don’t expect that to make much difference in this case.
I wrote about exactly this recently- https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zLnHk9udC28D34GBB/prediction-markets-aren-t-magic