SimonM

Karma: 1,004

Hiring decisions are not suitable for prediction markets

SimonM8 Jan 2024 21:11 UTC

12 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

Prediction Markets aren’t Magic

SimonM21 Dec 2023 12:54 UTC

90 points

29 comments3 min readLW link

How to Interpret Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

SimonM9 May 2023 14:12 UTC

14 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

Is Metaculus Slow to Update?

SimonM25 Mar 2022 19:44 UTC

75 points

9 comments2 min readLW link

Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices—Resolution

SimonM2 Jan 2022 11:55 UTC

56 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

Risk Premiums vs Prediction Markets

SimonM28 Jul 2021 23:03 UTC

33 points

6 comments6 min readLW link

Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices

SimonM27 Apr 2021 14:03 UTC

51 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Never Go Full Kelly

SimonM25 Feb 2021 12:53 UTC

49 points

7 comments8 min readLW link

Kelly isn’t (just) about logarithmic utility

SimonM23 Feb 2021 12:12 UTC

34 points

41 comments4 min readLW link