SimonM

Karma: 1,029

Hiring decisions are not suitable for prediction markets

SimonMJan 8, 2024, 9:11 PM

12 points

6 comments1 min readLW link

Prediction Markets aren’t Magic

SimonMDec 21, 2023, 12:54 PM

90 points

29 comments3 min readLW link

How to Interpret Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

SimonMMay 9, 2023, 2:12 PM

14 points

1 comment4 min readLW link

Is Metaculus Slow to Update?

SimonMMar 25, 2022, 7:44 PM

75 points

9 comments2 min readLW link

Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices—Resolution

SimonMJan 2, 2022, 11:55 AM

56 points

12 comments1 min readLW link

Risk Premiums vs Prediction Markets

SimonMJul 28, 2021, 11:03 PM

35 points

6 comments6 min readLW link

Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices

SimonMApr 27, 2021, 2:03 PM

51 points

5 comments2 min readLW link

Never Go Full Kelly

SimonMFeb 25, 2021, 12:53 PM

51 points

7 comments8 min readLW link

Kelly isn’t (just) about logarithmic utility

SimonMFeb 23, 2021, 12:12 PM

35 points

41 comments4 min readLW link