Even if there is no acceptable way to share the data semi-anonymously outside of match group, the arguments for prediction markets still apply within match group. A well designed prediction market would still be a better way to distribute internal resources and rewards amongst competing data science teams within match group.
I used to think things like this, but now I disagree, and actually think it’s fairly unlikely this is the case.
Internal prediction markets have tried (and failed) at multiple large organisations who made serious efforts to create them
As I’ve explained in this post, prediction markets are very inefficient at sharing rewards. Internal to a company you are unlikely to have the right incentives in place as much as just subsidising a single team who can share models etc. The added frictions of a market are substantial.
The big selling points of prediction markets (imo) come from:
Being able to share results without sharing information (ie I can do some research, keep the information secret, but have people benefit from the conclusions)
Incentivising a wider range of people. At an orgasation, you’d hire the most appropriate people into your data science team and let them run. There’s no need to wonder if someone from marketing is going to outperform their algorithm.
People who actually match and meetup with another user will probably have important inside view information inaccessible to the algorithms of match group.
I strongly agree. I think people often confuse “market” and “prediction market”. There is another (arguably better) model of dating apps which is that the market participants are the users, and the site is actually acting as a matching engine. Since I (generally) think markets are great, this also seems pretty great to me.
I used to think things like this, but now I disagree, and actually think it’s fairly unlikely this is the case.
Internal prediction markets have tried (and failed) at multiple large organisations who made serious efforts to create them
As I’ve explained in this post, prediction markets are very inefficient at sharing rewards. Internal to a company you are unlikely to have the right incentives in place as much as just subsidising a single team who can share models etc. The added frictions of a market are substantial.
The big selling points of prediction markets (imo) come from:
Being able to share results without sharing information (ie I can do some research, keep the information secret, but have people benefit from the conclusions)
Incentivising a wider range of people. At an orgasation, you’d hire the most appropriate people into your data science team and let them run. There’s no need to wonder if someone from marketing is going to outperform their algorithm.
I strongly agree. I think people often confuse “market” and “prediction market”. There is another (arguably better) model of dating apps which is that the market participants are the users, and the site is actually acting as a matching engine. Since I (generally) think markets are great, this also seems pretty great to me.